Can the upward momentum be maintained?Can the upward momentum be maintained in the S&P 500 with PPI being announced on Friday going into a holiday weekend? The bias is still for the market to move higher.02:16by DanGramza2
ID: 2024 - 00902.07.2024 Next trade executed - wash, rinse, repeat. This ESU2024 expiration cycle (JULY 2024). 163DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced butterfly structure. Short Strikes DELTA -13 Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 008 01.31.2024 Next trade executed - wash, rinse, repeat. This ESU2024 expiration cycle (JULY 2024). 170DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced condor structure. Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) delta 25 and a PCS (put credit spread) delta 13. Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 00701.16.2024 3rd official trade of 2024 executed. This trade is the next element deployed in a campaign of 5 max positions for ESU2024 expiration cycle (JUNE 2024). Once 5 elements are in flight, the trade gets managed as a campaign structure. Trade entry today at 157 DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced butterfly structure. This can be thought of as a PDS (put debit spread) combined with a PCS (put credit spread) and the short strikes will share the same strike. This gives again, defined risk, defined reward, and will get managed as one trade in a collective campaign of trades. Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 00601.10.2024 2ndt official trade of 2024 executed today. This trade is the 1st element deployed in a campaign of 5 max positions for ESU2024 expiration cycle (JUNE 2024). Once 5 elements are in flight, the trade gets managed as a campaign structure. Trade entry at 161 DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced butterfly structure. This can be thought of as a PDS (put debit spread) combined with a PCS (put credit spread) and the short strikes will share the same strike. This gives again, defined risk, defined reward, and will get managed as one trade in a collective campaign of trades. There are currently 4 elements deployed along with a black swan hedge providing overwatch. One more element will execute next week, and then this campaign will be done. Campaign number 2 will repeat this same process. Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 00501.04.2024 1st official trade of 2024 executed today. This trade is the 5rd element deployed in a campaign of 5 max positions for ESM2024 expiration cycle (JUNE 2024). Once 5 elements are in flight, the trade gets managed as a campaign structure. Trade entry at 134 DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced butterfly structure. This can be thought of as a PDS (put debit spread) combined with a PCS (put credit spread) and the short strikes will share the same strike. This gives again, defined risk, defined reward, and will get managed as one trade in a collective campaign of trades. There are currently 4 elements deployed along with a black swan hedge providing overwatch. One more element will execute next week, and then this campaign will be done. Campaign number 2 will repeat this same process. Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 1
ID: 2024 - 00312.18.2023 3rd trade of 2024 executed today. This trade is the 3rd element deployed in a campaign of 5 max positions for ESM2024 expiration cycle (JUNE 2024). Once 5 elements are in flight, the trade gets managed as a campaign structure. Trade entry at 151 DTE. Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 25 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 13. Element #2 (ID: 2024 - 002) will be sacrificed as the black swan hedge with GTC order placed to cover one of the short strikes (if necessary). Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 00212.12.2023 2ndt trade of 2024 executed today. This trade will have ZERO probability of hitting target profit before 1.1.2024, therefore no hesitation opening today. Trade entry at 157 DTE (days to expiration). Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 25 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 13. Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved. IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days. IF reduced target profit is not captured after 90 DIT, then short strikes are covered to add BSH (black swan hedge) protection for a catastrophic move down. This trade will deploy once/week until account value has doubled in size. :-) Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 00112.8.2023 1st trade of 2024 executed today. This trade will have ZERO probability of hitting target profit before 1.1.2024, therefore no hesitation opening today. Trade entry at 161 DTE (days to expiration). Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 25 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 13. Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved. IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days. IF reduced target profit is not captured after 90 DIT, then short strikes are covered to add BSH (black swan hedge) protection for a catastrophic move down. This trade will deploy once/week until account value has doubled in size. :-) Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
All technical analysis tools say the same thingPrice moving up but if you check daily time frame you can see that every time red candlestick show up volume is significantly higher than green candlestick meaning selling pressure is already come in market for awhile market breadth show bearish divergence that mean many stock in S&P500 is going down but the reason ES index moving up is big cap stock is carry the index super classic momentum indicator also clearly show that price moving up with not strong momentum in advance cycle indictor such as Fisher transform also show bearish divergence also in big picture show clear structure of Elliot wave that S&P500 on 5th wave also also outside market sentiment smart money and very nig guy such as Mark zuckerberg, Tim Cook partially sold their big lot stock also also also COT report show that open interest number is not moving up strongly anymore I think this is the best bet with 4RR I using daily time frame candle stick evening star candle pattern confirm this entry Shortby tofinse0
02/15 Pre market planGetting back to markets today. we have a supply zone sitting 5019 - 5028 the price its rejecting there, but i would like to see a break under 5004 to play shorts targeting 4986 4980. lets see the open. open to new levels that forms during the day.by SrSovi0
My new #1 S&P 500 chart to all who may be interested.Always looking to improve...This is my new #1 MES1! chart that I am using. It uses 4 TV indicators as shown with default configuration and my old favorite shown as "DAP 2xTSL S" which is actually just two copies of TV "Accurate Swing Trading System - Ceyhun". My fingers are always crossed. Trade at your own risk!Longby anotherDAPTrader1
2/15 Thursday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish U.S. Economic Projections: Rosenberg's Recession Warning: Forecasts an 85% chance of a recession in 2024, highlighting financial conditions and the yield curve as critical indicators. Global Economic Outlook: Tight Monetary Policy Impact: The World Economic Situation and Prospects report underscores the impact of tight monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainty on global growth. Japan's Economic Status: Shift in Global Rankings: Japan's economy contracted, marking a technical recession and positioning it as the world's fourth-largest economy. Stock Market Movements: Market Optimism vs. Volatility: Despite recent gains, there's caution over volatility and market corrections tied to central bank actions. Cryptocurrency Market: Bitcoin's Resurgence: A significant recovery for Bitcoin, reflecting renewed investor confidence in cryptocurrencies. Corporate Earnings and Job Cuts: Mixed Corporate Sentiment: A strong earnings season faces pressure from potential rate cut delays and job cuts in response to economic conditions. Inflation and Monetary Policy: Central Bank Challenges: Inflation data has led to uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline, impacting markets and treasury yields. Geopolitical Tensions: Stability Concerns: Ongoing conflicts and tensions underscore the importance of geopolitical stability for economic confidence. 📈 Trading Plan for Thursday: Support Levels to Watch: Key Supports: 5010, 4998-5000, and 4984, serving as crucial points for maintaining current market stability or signaling potential shifts. Resistance Levels to Watch: Critical Resistances: 5018 and 5034-36, acting as barriers to upward market movements and indicators of potential shifts in sentiment. Trading Strategy: Post-Inflation Data: The unexpected inflation report necessitates a cautious trading approach, with emphasis on navigating potential volatility. Bull Case: Monitoring the market's ability to maintain above 5010 and potentially reclaim key resistance levels for a continued rally. Bear Case: Preparation for a downward trend should key support levels, particularly 4998-5000, fail to hold, signaling deeper market corrections. Tactics: Focus on disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels, prepared to adapt quickly to market volatility following economic data releases. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions.Shortby spytradingpro552
ES overnight Price Action ReviewGoing over the price Action and levels for ES overnight till now. game plan for today and what we'll be looking for. Always know where you'll get out if you're wrong. We ARe Risk Managers.Long02:58by BobbyS8130
Increasing retail salesIf the retail sales report on Thursday strengthens, the expectation would be an increase in the S&P 500 because it implies a resiliency in consumer spending which represents approximately 70% of the US GDP.01:34by DanGramza2
S&P 500 Market Update - Fibonacci Harmonic PatternTeam - I took the Fibonacci Dragon Pattern long on todays DIP Up over 1400 now moving stop loss to break even - RISK FREE TRADE NOW DROP A LIKE and I will post more of these setupsLongby tradingwarzoneUpdated 5
S&P 500 Futures support and resistance 📜There are currently two levels on USD/CAD. One short level is 5020.00, where the weekly volume cluster is visible. The other level is the long level at 4945.00, where we can see the rejection of the lower price level.by Trader_Dale2
2024.02.14 ES AMS scenarioI anticipate one more leg to the upside => around 8.30 reversal to the downside. I anticipate corrective downside move for now. Shortby Yoo_CoolUpdated 0
2/14 Wednesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish U.S. Economic Projections: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Outlook: Projects a slowdown in 2024 with a potential rebound in 2025 as the Federal Reserve lowers rates. The 2024 deficit is anticipated to be smaller than previously estimated, indicating a cautious approach towards monetary policy. Stock Market Performance: Inflation's Impact: Unexpectedly high January inflation led to significant market corrections, with the Dow experiencing a notable drop. Tech stocks, including giants like Apple and Amazon, were particularly affected. Interest Rates and Inflation: Federal Reserve's Stance: The anticipation of the Fed's rate cuts has been postponed due to the inflation report, affecting Treasury yields and the overall market sentiment. Investment Trends and Strategies: 2024 Outlook: Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with AI in finance, digital currencies, and sector-specific strategies being highlighted as key investment trends. Corporate News and Global Market Trends: Corporate Movements: Notable acquisitions and earnings reports, such as KKR's stake in Cotiviti and ABN AMRO's profit beat, influence market dynamics. Global shares showed mixed responses to U.S. inflation data. Recession Concerns and Geopolitical Factors: Economic Risks: Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and concerns over a potential recession in 2024 continue to pose uncertainties for the global economy. 📈 Trading Plan for Wednesday: Support Levels to Watch: Critical Supports: 4928-33 and 4956, serving as pivotal points for market stability or indicating potential downward trends. Resistance Levels to Watch: Key Resistances: 4969-71 and 5018, acting as barriers to upward movement and indicators of market sentiment shifts. Trading Strategy: Post-Inflation Report: Given the market's reaction to the inflation data, traders should adopt a cautious approach, prioritizing capital preservation. Bull Case: Focus on the market's ability to reclaim key resistance levels, particularly 5018, for a potential rally towards 5057 and beyond. Bear Case: Prepare for further declines if support levels, especially 4928-33, fail to hold, potentially signaling deeper market corrections. Tactics: Emphasize disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels, with readiness to adapt to market volatility post-inflation report. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions. Shortby spytradingpro0
S&P500 - 1st bullish expansion after strong test of absorption After the farmer strikes, the bearish iwf news from 30st of january the bearish cutting of a channel was absorbed as you can see by the expansion of the distant lines. The duration in lower areas was quite low and getting lower and lower as for now. Actually (after the CPI report) we get the lowest reading since weeks. the big money is taking oportunity of low prices, rotation is taking place. on the right you can see a 2h creek, it got broken to the upside and we can see a little expansion after the test of a very strong potential ice line (like David Weiss would call them). I think we will see market breadth going up the next days. The german market looks great . Best Luck for You all :) good tradin' <3Longby revilo19870
OverNight ES price Action ReviewGoing over the price action review Overnight session ES. we reclaimed the 76ish level and now are squeezing higher to test breakdown levels. we are small long and will be adding as long as we get signals to keep adding. we will try short at some point today but need a setup. no setup no trade. we had a big move yesterday lets not be rigid in our thinking but dynamic. good luck today.Long02:11by BobbyS8130
ES HTF Pivots and directional pathingES HTF Pivots and directional pathing Current Auction is between 4082-4088.50 and 4060-4055. We have seen supportive bids step in at our 4037 HVE (High Volume Edge) and should expect buyers to show interest there unless 4930 flips to resistance on a re-offer. BEAR PLAN IF sellers make 4030 resistance we look for the 4920-4916 20 Day POC to act as a magnet for price BULL PLAN IF buyers can make 4082 supportive on a re-bid we can look for a push up into the top of our previous 2 week balance 4997-5000 IF buyers are willing to transact and built out value at our 5000 level we can look for price to look up to our 5 Day POC at 5012 IF buyers are willing to push above and make 5012 supportive we can look for price to push to fill the RTH gap to 5033 by SigCharts0