📊 Recap
Today's newsletter provides a comprehensive look at the current market situation, emphasizing the S&P 500 Futures and the essential strategies for upcoming trading sessions.
📈 The Markets Overnight
Asia: Mixed
Europe: Down a bit
US Index Futures: Down slightly
Crude Oil: Up a bit
Dollar: Down slightly
Yields: Up slightly
Crypto: Up slightly
...
11.3.2023
THIS IS A BEARISH LEANING TRADE!
A lot of ground has been covered in the past few days, and global uncertainty is at all time high. Not to mention going into years end with election nonsense, coupled with depressed VIX levels. This market is ripe for a moderate to potentially significant pullback.
This trade is bearish by nature, coupled with the...
Price broke through a big multiday trendline up. I'm expecting a sell down to November's cost basis so that we can back fill some of the trapped short positions and check if there still is buying demand and buyer retention. If both are present and no supply hits the market then we are going back up.
The vix is also at a very low point relative to the past 2...
ES made bullish breaker on 15M chart tapping the lows of the day and targeting at least Asia session high.
Entry at FVG/breaker block high. I would call it almost ICT Unicorn setup though FVG is not exactly aligned with breaker block.
I am expecting this spike and channel to fail any day now as it is falsely breaking out of the top of the channel. Failure of this pattern will put price back inside the down channel.
I am also expecting a substantial move down to 4400 for a false move in a bear flag under the hourly 200sma.
I am then expecting a sharp rally that coincides with the Santa Rally...
In this uptrend on the daily chart, price is in a complex flag pattern consolidation. I believe it is about half way through with another leg down to complete the measured move.
The evidence that leads me to believe that this parabolic run up the last few weeks is false is
1. Parabolic run up to stop hunt the shorts that got it right
2. Sucker in more longs
3....
Reviewing Price Action for OVernight and last 2 days Holiday shortened trading days. We are neutral to long bias but going to let the market digest today and tomorrow. We will be adding on major support tests. of course always know where you'll get out if you're wrong.
To complete the image, it is necessary to encourage the bulls with the sharp upward movement. After a drop below 4500 occurs, it will indicate the beginning of a correction.
It has been a hot minute since doing a video analysis. So here you go:
A look at:
NYSE:BA
NASDAQ:AMZN
NASDAQ:AAPL
NASDAQ:NVDA
NASDAQ:QQQ
AMEX:SPY
CME_MINI:NQ1!
CME_MINI:ES1!
Just my thoughts, not advice.
Safe trades everyone!
As, of this morning PCC is at 1.026 so there is a high interest for shorts- this is the perfect condition for a short squeeze. Even though the trendline broke I am expecting a a liquidity grab. On the high time gram I see a head and shoulder forming with a clean trendline break- so I will target short term liquidity to be safe.
ES is locked near Mid-time frame 786 Fib just above the Aug 16th high. Market has gained 10% + after making a V-bottom on Oct 26/27th. Makes sense for price to trade sideways to down for a bit. Santa rally effect still in play going into the new year but tax loss selling season is also upon us so some early Dec weakness is possible.
SUMMARY
ES finished the...
WEEKLY SP:SPX UPDATE
pivotal week ahead expecting reversal of intermediate uptrend with important signals for #consumption #china #housing and #inflation
watch out for...
Tue: #ConsumerConfidence
Wed: #ChinaPMI
Thu: #PCE
Fri: #PMI #PowellSpeech
still flat - short entry imminent
AMEX:SPY
Trendlines:
The chart showcases three Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs): EMA20 (blue), EMA100 (orange), and EMA200 (red). EMAs are used to identify trends over different periods. Here's what we can infer:
The EMA20 is currently below both the EMA100 and EMA200, suggesting that in the very short term, prices have been trending lower relative to the...
