Personal notes of the leading economic indicator. Any read below 60 is generally negative for the markets. The last major read at this level was in the 08 fallout. The most recent read is an all time low. Incurs a Negative bias for the wider market. However only a good read for durable goods.
The Greatest Bubble in History is unwinding with fits and starts. Economic Conditions Globally - within the lower 3% Historically. Multiples for Equities - within the Highest 4% Historically in very Real Terms. Monetary & Fiscal Excess - The Greatest in History, bar none. 100% Assured: Reality is brought to bare with the Consumer who is being squeezed like a...
Chart showing that Personal Income doesn't lead consumer sentiment Green is income. Red is sentiment.
Consumer Sentiment is just one tool for investors to use when choosing whether to buy, sell, add, or trim stocks. But it can be a very useful tool, especially when markets are heavily skewed in one direction as they appear to be today. There have only been four (the three breaches during the 08 crisis I count as one) occurrences in the past when the U.S....
The 007s are back, we know full well what that means. Gap to Trap the Safety Trade Baggies again. They never learn. ____________________________________________________ CDs - 3/6 Months @ 2.10 and 2.20, Yr @ 3.30, 4/5Yr @ 3.40.... If ya believe, load the woodshed. Prior to making the same mistake for the 4t time, ask yourselves one simple question - why are...
No worries Mates and Shelia's - this is bottoming. It's down under, so far down under it's Alice Springs under with a dash of ET tossed in for good measure. A "Turnaround" ? Ozzy Man Reviews: What is a Turnaround? search Youtube... You'll get the idea of how "Top and Bottom" promoting works out. ________________________________________________________ @...
We are already now in, yet another recession, similar to 2008. Consumer sentiment doesn't move the market (SPX), but it does accurately reflect what the working class is experiencing. Prepare yourself & your family, if you have not done so already. It may be years until we push through past, all the pain. Yet again, or for the first time for younger investors.
For my records. Federal Reserve is hiking rates when consumer sentiment is at one of the lowest in history. First time in history they hike with consumer sentiment at these level, they used to cut rates in the past. Recession, or a possible depression, is highly likely in 2022~2023
This is historically a buying opportunity. When user sentiment is below the base smart money enters.
Just a little update of some charts and numbers I think if you're playing inflation you're late But let's see GRI 2022 NOT TRADING ADVICE
Consumer Sentiment continues in Trend. Its ability to forecast "Recession" is unparalleled. 100% accurate as a Leading Indicator of overall Economic conditions. It Surveys 500 households about their expected financial conditions, their sentiment about the general Economic conditions, Unemployment and the status of household Savings. Consumers’ confidence...
Try as they might - The perception Monetary & Fiscal Policy is Failing... Inescapable. _______________________________________ 72.5 expected Swing and a... Miss _______________________________________ Every Economic Downturn is led by 18 Months of... F_ck this BS, we're in Deep Sh_t. Every one Ever. _______________________________________ Wall Street...