How long do we have before the unemployment rate truly starts rising? A couple of months in my opinion.
Every time it starts going up, the SPX starts crashing.
June 2024 could be the market top?
As the FED starts reducing interest rates.
On the FRED:UNRATE dataset, we can see that since 1953, every time the unemployment rate make a significant move above the 24 months SMA, with the sole exception of October '67, we saw a large spike in unemployment allong with a recession.
Currently, FRED:UNRATE rose above the 24 months SMA in August 2023 and has been stochastically moving higher ever...
12/9/2023
I - Issue:
Yesterday, the latest unemployment rate for the USA were released. The current rate stands at 3.7, reflecting a decrease of 0.2. The key question now is whether this is merely a test of support or a signal for a potential invalidation of the bottom structure.
R - Rule:
Since 1950, we observe numerous instances where the unemployment rate...
Looks like market bottoms just before the Unemployment peak.
Market peaks just before fed starts reducing the rates.
At the current situation, we have fed fund rates high and also unemployment started to climb.
Will be looking at the unemployment going high and markets roll over and fed cuts rates.
if FED keeps the same rate for long, something in the economy...
This chart illustrates the relationship between the BLS US Unemployment Rate (UR) including the RSI for the UR, plotted against the SP500 (SPX) and the Fed Funds Rate (FFR). The data illustrates the idea that the FFR pushes the UR upward, and when the RSI for the UR trends up and crosses 50, the UR then surges upward rapidly (relatively speaking), resulting in a...
The Unemployment Rate looks like it's getting ready to spike higher as it Double Bottoms at the 0.786 and cracks above the 21SMA. If this plays out, it will likely spike to the highs or even make a new higher high. During all of this, I expect the macroeconomic data charts below to also play out:
Consumer Credit Balances:
The Mortgage ETF:
US Interest...
Macro Monday 14
US Employment Rate Pre-Recession Indications
The Unemployment Rate tells us how many people in the United States are currently without a job and actively looking for one. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates and reports the unemployment rate. In basic terms it consists of the following;
Survey: The Bureau of Labor Statistics...
A recession is not bullish for the overall market so studying how the civilian unemployment rate behaves before a recession hits should help tune out any and all noise from talking heads.
The red shaded areas in the above chart shows past recessions.
The red circles within this chart are times when the unemployment rate "flattened out" before either...
Soft landing?
📊 Analyzing the US economy through key indicators:
SP500 📉: Historically drops before a recession.
Unemployment Rate 📈: Tends to spike during/after the onset of a recession.
ISM PMI 🚫: Values <50 often signal a contracting economy.
Yield Curve 🔄: Inversions have preceded past recessions.
While these correlations are strong, it's important to...
Historically, when unemployment crosses the 20 month moving average, a spike in unemployment follows in the next 12 months. These spikes in unemployment usually correspond with market downside in the S&P 500. The majority of the losses in the S&P usually happen early within the rise of unemployment. The recent rise of unemployment from 3.6 to 3.8 reported Friday...
Here is a graph showing the correlations between the leading indicators of the economy, Job Openings, Unemployment Rate, and the S&P.
It can be seen from the charts that the Job Openings (.a) historically begin to decline before there is any change in the unemployment rate. A simple explanation for this could be, less jobs, more people unemployed.
Once the...
The US unemployment rate can double from here and still be within the long-term range and still below the extremes that have occurred during more recent recessions.
Also worth point out that the only time we have been below this level of unemployment (higher employment) was during the Korean war in the early 1950s. Sure, we could see the rate of employment...
Great look at historical timing of business vs. market cycle. Based on history, there is a lag from the beginning of breaching the yield curve to when unemployment and thus the economy starts to decline.
In the high-end dialogue session of the Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum, Zhu Min, former vice president of the International Monetary Fund and former vice governor of the People's Bank of China, had a conversation with Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, on the US banking crisis, the Fed's policy path choices and Hot topics such as the impact of...
Since 1969, these events have happened in this order 100% of the time.
1) Unemployment bottoms and begins to rise
2) Recession
3) #SP500 makes a new low
Watch this video for a better explanation.
1) Recessions (Grey/Green rectangles) have always occurred after the unemployment rate reached a low and began to curve back up (Blue line).
2) The bottom has never been in before a recession (orange circle).
#SPX #NASDAQ #Crypto #Bitcoin #Recession #SPY
I wanted to highlight how the peak (downward move) in the Producer Price Index (PPIACO) typically corresponds with the trough (upward move) in the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) (inverse correlation), as a period of Recession takes hold on the economy, & the financial markets.
I also wanted to compare the above correlation with cycle tops in WTI Crude Oil...
