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Here you will clearly see the highest Unemployement rate ever recorded in the US. This chart only goes back so far, but if you could go back further you would see that it is definetly the highest rate ever. Unbelievable.
RSI at its historic low (in the available data). It looks like the rate hit (or almost hit) the support line. Can we say there will be an increasing unemployment rate, based on low RSI and the support line?
The Awesome Oscillator (graph below) went from negative to positive this month (MAY 2020). The last two times this happened in 2001 and 2008, recessions hit the US and the world economies were shacked. Is this the starting point of the downward acceleration spiral?
Unemployment rate in the US has increased at a very accelerated rate.
In 2001, 2008 and now in 2020, the Unemployment rates started to increase considerably before economical crisis. I've put this quick chart together to keep an eye on this.
Growth drives employment. Contraction drives unemployment.
I've put together this simple chart to try to visualize how the unemployment rate may be an indicator of what's to come. When credit flows and people and companies can get debt to drive growth, you get more spend, more income, more highers, more employment, more jobs. However, as this starts to slow, it starts to drop, leading to potentially the economy slowing...
Hey guys, I have a strange feeling that on April 3rd, this FRED is going to go straight up. Just a gut feeling... In other words, We screwed.
This indicator has proven a fairly one as to turns in the market over the years and if (and it is a big if with the situation ever fluid and the US chucking literally trillions to keep the economy afloat)) but if this Covid-19 pandemic does send the US into a recession and the unemployment rates up with it then perhaps we shall have to start looking for a more...
I don't hear to much debate about what part of the business cycle we're in. We were in the part of the cycle when no profit generating companies go parabolic ( the of the cycle if you don't get the reference). This unemployment chart suggests we might be in for some darker days ahead. Stay safe.
Dates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low
The 9/15 month MA that I posted previously combined with an additional specific event, an increase in unemployment of 0.6% from a recent low, better correlates with recessions since the 1950s than just the MA crossover. The crossover has in recent history preceded recessions while the 0.6% increases happen before, along with the start of of in the first 3 months...
Civilian Unemployment Rate FRED, as at 2020.02.14
In UNRATE Chart there is a worked bullish Gartley Pattern. FRED:UNRATE
Looking for the Unemployment rate moving average to crossover in order to signal incoming recession. Crossover will provide useful investment reassessment trigger.