Mike Schroepfer on Twitter yesterday wrote a fantastic article in his thread regarding the Tech Bubble in 2000. The "Silicon Valley" version.
It made me think: what if the cows are finally coming home now post-2008 recession?
The 1M timeframe shows price riding my 6EMA like a drunk girl at PBR Big Sky.
We have not seen a swing low since early 2009. The local...
Using Fib circles to plot how price falls
Both corrections are around -80%
A fall like this allows for a third touch on the up channel that is apparent
Bars pattern placed (red) is just my thoughts of how price could act if this scenario occurs
Are we at a significant turning point of time and price?
This long term WEEKLY chart illustrates the significance of the area we are currently approaching.....we may have already arrived.
As you can see we are positioned at the median line of the LONG TERM channel. I think this will provide an area of support that could advance prices to the .62 or .78 fib...
NDX is bearish and we can confirm the bearish trend. it broke down the Support level. The first target area based on Renko and candlestick charts is 10800 - 11000 area
Let's See why I think so:
I think NASDAQ100 will soon Break below its support level and we are about to see another 10% correction in the next few weeks.
The technical reason:
NDX components are breaking below their previous support levels one after the other:
*Do not forget: it is very possible to see sharp rallies of short coverings in MAy-June before June...
At the breaking point of lower part of the downward chanell. Can see a good upsurge to the top of the channel or a breakdown toll 16250 atleast depending upon the volume and g;oba; scenarios
So basically, went back to the time since the post GFC crash. The interaction between price and the Ichimoku Kijun sen throws up some very interesting insights. Let's go a little deeper --
1) The Kijun is simply the highest high to lowest low midpoint of the last 26 periods, i.e. in this case, 26 months
2) The recovery post the 2008-2009 crash climbed above the...
For those of us old enough to remember the glorious movie, The Godfather III, there is a thrilling scene where Michael Corleone (Al Pacino) explains...
“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.”
You are Don Corleone in this market.
You are positive; you are by default a bull; you want the market to go up.
You have fear of missing out (FOMO) if the...
If you want to have a good forecast, you need to calculate all the possibilities ..!
A comparison between 2008 & 2022:
A Comparison between 2000 & 2022:
My Observation:
1- In the 2000 market crash, after the early -39.5% market bounce back 43% in the next 3 months and then go down 73%.
2-In the 2008 market crash, after the early -25.5% market bounce...
Disclaimer: I suck at long term projections which is why I track 3 hr futures and do short term trading.
Anyways, since a lot of my followers are asking, here's my projection, a 3 drive pattern to get NDX back to preCOVID levels. I don't believe AAPL or TSLA has bottomed out yet, so we could see this arrow get extended.
Oddly, the end of the arrow points at...
Nasdaq needs to stay above 11700 to prevent further collapse. If we fall below 11700, we will fall up to 10680 by 2nd June. However, we may see a turnaround as Nasdaq has shown some positive moving avg crossover
Looking over the last ten years in NDX, we've got a bullish seasonality from now on until the 27th of July. This seems to match with our recently touched 50 % fib retracement. A bullish rebound appears to be very likely now.
Hello ladies and gentlemen, according to my chart analysis of the nasdaq100, there is a high probability of a decline towards the $13333 level in the next few weeks!
We might be getting into the end of the 2022 drop. If we are there's some really strong moves coming and June/July will be insanely bullish.
I also think we're right on the point where the bull trend may fail and we might enter into a really strong down market. If longs around this level fail I'll probably be super bearish in the following swings.
This is...
"The term is commonly used in phrases like, "don't try to catch a falling knife," which can be translated to mean, "wait for the price to bottom out before buying it." A falling knife can quickly rebound - in what's known as a whipsaw—or the security may lose all of its value, as in the case of bankruptcy." (Investopedia)
"A falling knife refers to a sharp drop,...
NASDAQ
