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Cocoa Futures (Jul 2019)

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CJN2019 trade ideas

A Simplified Model for Bubbles. This post is to test a hypothesis we can break bubble moves down into five main stages and with these we can have a reasonable idea where we might be in that move. Here I've marked up the phases on Cocoa and I'll also show some others that have similar phases. Broadly understanding the phases of a bubble and crash is not as grandiose a claim as it's made out to be. My idea that bubbles and pops can be understood is based on my opinion that various TA methods do a good job of explaining trend development. When major bubbles and pops of the are viewed in hindsight, they have obvious finger prints of bull/bear trend development. Trend development models and theories are something we can develop and test trading over smaller timeframes. On 5 minute charts little bubbles and crashes happened daily. On hourly charts they happen weekly. Daily charts you see them over months. If you can test thing to work on these timeframes, it's perfectly valid to scale that to weekly/monthly. My premise is the overall rules of trend development are not significantly different from the rules of intraday/week/month development. Through the last years I've tested models I have for bull trend reversals with varying effects. I could tout various instances of forecasting major reversals in 2021/2022 and show a very timely switch to bull in 2023. The models have had many successes. They've also had many misses. I've learned a lot about the limitations of various things. This is an attempt to combine the original trend development ideas I had with real experience of attempting to establish the major swings in moves over the last years and apply that to some current charts that have people's attention. Charts that as per this bubble template would be in heading into the reversal swings. First let's expand on the five stages; Stage one: During stage one there will be an obvious uptrend. The trend won't be of an exceptional angel but it will be progressively heading higher. It will probably look like it's going up quickly in real time, but when viewed later this was a very slow section of the trend. Lots of pullbacks likely in this phase. Stage one has an uptrend but it does not have a lot of people believing in it. In fact, what's most common is stage one is people pointing out the reasons the trend is unsustainable. Stage two : Stage 2 is a crash section of the move. The bull trend breaks. At this time there are not a lot of calls for dip buying, a more popular tone is "Told you so". People have been expecting the rally to fail and are vindicated. During this time is the best possible time to buy but it'd be a highly unpopular opinion to defend in the public arena. Stage three: The doubling. A magnificent trend. It defies doubters time and time again until few people dare to doubt and those who do are subject of mockery. There's been a full shift from those being bullish being the outcasts to those being bearish being the outcasts. By this time the asset in question should be the darling of market related forums. Note - I've called this the doubling phase but it can be a bit more/less. What's important is it a massive advance of the trend. Which massively changes sentiment. Stage 4 Stage 4 is a false reversal. Heading into stage 4 it's unpopular to be a bear. Usually by this stage we're seeing people buying the asset with no previous investing background (Or nothing of a speculative nature like this). It not only has public acceptance but it's shrouded in eternal optimism. Note: It is possible the optimism around the asset in question is long term valid. This does not remove the risk of 70 - 90% drawdowns. A standard part of trend development is to make a first trend leg. Correct almost all of that trend leg. Then head into a far larger and longer trend. An example would be the 1920's rally and crash. Was going higher, late 20's was bad time to buy. Stage 5 In stage 5 bulls become geniuses and bears become stupid. Stage 5 is where an unshakable belief in the trend is formed by bulls and even the most staunch of bears is having trouble shorting it. If they're not shy about when they're short, they do not have money to short any more. Stage 5 is a tough time to be a bear. Stage 5 is a really strong spike out. Coming off the stage 4 bear trap it really solidifies the idea this trend can overcome anything. It is the strongest section of the trend. Brief, but aggressive. NVDA Maybe the the most loved/hated stock in the world. Lot of strong opinions on NVDA. I personally think AI is cool and AI stocks have a great future. But remember that thing I said about big corrections. Just because something will be awesome in 30 years does not make it a good buy now (Looking at you, Nasdaq 1999!). Here's the stages. SMCI SMCI is tricky because when you look at the rally close up you can see there are 10% drops which could be considered fitting for stage 4. That would imply a top being in now we have the big break candle. However, it's also equally valid to make a case for this being stage 4 and there to be a final spike out. The model would have SMCI either at a classic bull trap reversal level or due to spike the high before the real turn. Click below for the case for high being in. AAPL Here's the phases in AAPL looking at from inception. The usefulness of the model (So far) for AAPL can be supported with an accurate forecast of the rally to a new high forming. All of which would be well explained with Elliot Wave theory. Here's an example of what happens when all of these phases hit and there is a strong and complete reversal.
Editors' picks
ICEUS:CC1!Short
by holeyprofit
114
The pros look at 1300 candles or higher for their giant trendsHello everyone! Hope you are all well! In PhiCube methodology, we study the relative behavior of fractals separated by a factor of 4.236 (Phi raised to the third power - Phi Cubed = PhiCube). If we consider a single cande as the smallest technical entity on a chart,, we can begin to derive our fractals: 1 candle x 4.236 = 4 candles (rounded) (the baby) 4 candles x 4.236 = 17 candles (the teenager) 17 candles x 4.236 = 72 candles (the parent) 72 candles x 4.236 = 305 candles (the Sumo) 305 candles x 4.236 = 1292 candles (the Giant) We need three fractals moving the in the same direction for a trend. Any adjacent fractals moving in opposite directions is a consolidation of the larger fractal. But, we NEVER look at more than 3 fractals, as the smallest 4th fractal is just noise in that scenario. (Think about it....the fourth fractal is 72 times smaller than the largest...less than 1.6%...it's just noise). You novices want to understand why you're losing money with candlestick patterns? It's just noise. If you want to ride a massive trrend, it needs a Sumo or a Giant behind it. Cocoa futures is a perfect example. Look for a bounce and a test of the highs whem price touches the 305 ema in blue. It works on any ticker or timeframe. In future posts I will show you how to use this concept for massive downtrends. Try it! Take care, Bo
ICEUS:CC1!
by phicube
Cocoa Market Outlook. Is Cocoa the New Gold?In recent months, the price of cocoa has soared to record levels several times, while it has increased by more than 150% since the beginning of the year amid concerns about a reduction in supplies to West Africa. Today, cocoa prices fluctuate, reaching heights and correcting to lower numbers due to a strengthened dollar. A week ago, cocoa futures priced at $11682 a ton, April's record. The main reason behind the significant growth of not only cocoa but also other food commodities is that this year promises to be very dry and hot. Cocoa is sold in futures, meaning the expectations of poor harvest directly influence the price. In the other areas, the cocoa harvest has also been falling, but because of above-average rainfall , there has been an increase in crop diseases due to heightened wetness. In addition to the potential shortage of supplies, cocoa prices are also being pushed by investors' increasing interest in infusing funds into agricultural products. If we look at Bill Gates' portfolio, we will find that Bill Gates is now one of the largest landowners in the United States. Thus, the agricultural market becomes one of the hedging strategies. How to invest in cocoa? Investors who seek ways to invest in cocoa may find it interesting to buy ETFs on this product. For example, the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex Total Return ETN is one of the most well-known exchange-traded funds, exposing investors to the performance of the Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex Total Return. This index reflects the returns from a basket of cocoa futures contracts. Furthermore, Invesco DB Agriculture Fund allocates approximately 28% of its portfolio to cocoa futures, also offering significant exposure to the cocoa market. It seeks to track the DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index Excess Return, which includes various agricultural commodities futures contracts. In my opinion, buying shares of chocolate manufacturers might not be a good idea. Chocolate manufacturers often aim to maintain stable prices for their products to retain market share and consumer loyalty. This means that when cocoa prices rise, manufacturers may absorb some of the cost rather than pass it onto consumers. Cocoa investing obstacles for private investors Private investors may also face some obstacles when buying cocoa or other food commodities. For example, acquiring cocoa futures on the Chicago Exchange may require not only profound knowledge, but also serious investments. As for cocoa ETFs, these instruments may also not be suitable for all investors due to their complexity and low liquidity. Moreover, cocoa commodity cycles are actually quite long. Therefore, investors need to understand whether they seek short-term speculation or adopt a long-term investment strategy. For those opting for the latter, patience and readiness to hold positions for extended durations become imperative. Thus, before making any investments, especially in singular commodities like cocoa or grains, it's crucial to consult a professional due to the risks involved. Diversification is key to investing; while assembling a portfolio of various products increases the likelihood of returns, focusing on particular commodities like cocoa or grain can pose threats.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by Julia_Khandoshko
COCOA : A CORRECTION IS DUE- The market has been trading above a bullish trendline since mid-March ; The mid-term trend was then bullish - More recently, the increased appetite for the US Dollar has started to put pressure on a wide range of commodities, including Cocoa. Since the impact on 11,212, the control of the market has been taken over by sellers, leading prices back to their first support level around the 10,000 mark. This pull-back following a bearish divergence with the RSI has driven the market to invalidate its mid-term bullish trend, opening the doors to a correction. The RSI has also confirmed the bearish break-out, but remains in buying zone, slightly over the 50% level. - The bullish trend has clearly been invalidated. However, it is still hard to say whether the market consolidate laterally or register a deeper correction at this point. Even if the 10,000 stays as the immediate support level for the market, 9,332 (38.2% Fibonacci + last market bottom) should be seen as a crucial zone. If a break-out happens there, we could expect a deeper bearish movement towards 8,750 and 8,170 by extension. Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
C
by ActivTrades
[CC] Cocoa bull run is over ?Following an explosive surge that propelled Cocoa ( NYSE:CC ) to the $1000 mark, the price is now encountering resistance around this significant psychological level. Observing this resistance, there's anticipation for a correction towards the area of interest defined by my TP zone. While a revisit to the $1000 level in the coming days is plausible, it's probable that we'll witness a corrective phase following this impressive bull run. The market sentiment suggests a potential pullback as the price encounters resistance and investors book profits. In summary, while the short-term outlook may involve another touch of the $1000 level, caution is warranted as a correction seems increasingly likely in the aftermath of this remarkable uptrend in Cocoa ( NYSE:CC ). Great Trade !
ICEUS:CC1!Short
by ArnoSG
CHARTOLOGY 101 --- 43 years in the makingThe bigger the pattern the bigger the consolidation the more explosive the move how about this Chart Porn? Cup and handle I expect the log tgt not only to be made but surpassed given yesterdays event's in #baltimore Yup Massive east coast supply chain disruptions to be expected Ports jammed Aviation fuel disruptions Major economic ripples could transpire form this the east coast is home to 120 million people I believe .. Wow Stock up on your Cadbury's and many other things ... :0
ICEUS:CC1!
by BallaJi
Cocoa Boom! Prices soar by 60.88% in 54 WeeksCocoa has sustained a price escalation of the last 54 weeks marking a growth of 60.88%, after which a sideways range has formed. Cocoa futures reached a trading high of 6676 points, driven by inflation increases and the Federal Reserve's price tightening, which have caused this incredible upward push in the commodity. Most of the major chocolate companies in the market have increased the prices of their final products with cocoa components in view of the doubling of cocoa prices since last year. Hershey, Toblerone, Mondelez Int. Group (which includes Milka and Cadbury among others), Lindt & Sprungli, Circana and the Walmart supermarket chain, a benchmark for low prices, have decided to raise the cost of all their cocoa products, literally doubling their price. In the case of Hersey, its sales have fallen 6.6% since last year given the necessary price adjustment and prices are expected to continue to rise. Thousands of videos have been posted on the internet regarding the cost of these types of chocolates, which used to cost 50 cents, now cost more than $2. Many are trying to compensate for the rising cost of cocoa by increasing their efficiency in the forward purchasing strategy. It is very likely that the market for cocoa derivatives will be affected by a drift to a higher milk to cocoa ratio and variety of other lower cocoa products to compensate for these prices. The technical analysis shows an organized upward price construction since the beginning of February, crossing different price boundaries placing the value between 6676.00 and 5908 points. The current picture suggests a possible consolidation closer to highs in an area that suggests a narrowing at the top. Indicators such as the RSI at 52.91%, indicate a balance in the market, and the MACD showing a possible bullish crossover on volume that is not very strong suggests a possible consolidation to look for highs. However, the formation of a triple bell on the price indicator suggests a weighting towards the middle zone, which could indicate a possible bounce to test lower levels of the range before a continuation to the upside, so it could stretch its price adjustment if it dips to 5595 and subsequently bounce to the upside. Price is expected to break above the triple top and look for all-time highs at 6997 points. Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
CLong
by ActivTrades
[COCOA] Cacao timing to take the correctionCurrently, the PEPPERSTONE:COCOA (cacao) market has undergone a notable upside rally over recent days, culminating in a significant move towards the $6000 level. Today, we observed a precise hit of this key psychological level, followed by a clean rejection, prompting a short position. The primary objective now is to remain below this crucial $6000 level, aiming to capitalize on a potential correction in the recent upward surge. By maintaining short positions, we aim to capture the potential downside movement with a relatively small risk, yet the possibility of a substantial gain. Initially, the trade unfolded favorably, with the price action aligning with our short position. However, subsequent movement saw a retracement back towards the entry level, highlighting the need for vigilance and adaptability in response to evolving market conditions. As we await further price action, it's imperative to remain attentive to developments in the PEPPERSTONE:COCOA market. Tomorrow's movements will provide valuable insights into the durability of the recent rejection and the potential continuation or reversal of the prevailing trend. In navigating this trade, maintaining a disciplined approach and closely monitoring key levels and indicators will be crucial. While the potential for a significant win exists, it's essential to manage risk effectively and remain adaptable to changing market dynamics.
ICEUS:CC1!Short
by ArnoSG
1