#Crude #XTIUSD Trading The 5th Wave ExtensionIn this update we review the recent price action in the Crude oil futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunities and price objectives to target PAST PERFORMANCE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS01:06by Tickmill7
How to tell which way inflation is going?In this video, we are studying the time lag between commodities, inflation data, and central bank decisions. 3 types of crude oil for trading: • Crude Oil Futures 0.01 per barrel = $10.00 Code: CL • E-mini Crude Oil Futures 0.025 per barrel = $12.50 Code QM • Micro WTI Crude Oil 0.01 per barrel = $1.00 Code MCL Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Editors' picks07:41by konhow2323278
Crude Oil: RSI on Cusp of Sell SignalThe price of oil halts a six-day rally, and a move below 70 in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may accompany a larger pullback in crude as it reflects a textbook sell-signal. Crude Oil Outlook The price of oil trades in a narrow range as it struggles to extend the series of higher highs and lows carried over from last week, and failure to hold above $87.30 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) may push crude back towards the $82.10 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to $82.60 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) area as the bullish momentum seems to be abating. Next area of interest comes in around $78.70 (50% Fibonacci retracement), but the price of oil may track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA ($78.94) as long as it holds above the monthly low ($83.46). In turn, the price of oil may attempt to test the $93.50 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) area should the overbought reading in the RSI persist, with a breach above the November 2022 high ($93.74) bringing the August 2022 high ($98.65) on the radar. by FOREXcom4
multiple re-entries this week using the fair value gap methodlow risk entries: wait till 16 min bar closed above prior bar then buy the lowest part of the fair value gapLongby responsibletrad8r1
CL WTI Crude Oil - Getting In Sync With The Market MakersIn late July I made a call that oil's actual target in the imminent term is not $100+, but actually a 3 or a 4-handle. Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins I believe that this long term analysis is still correct. However, price action has shown that the target was finally the daily gap at $85 and was achieved last week. Thus far in some 7 weeks of trading, oil has only gained $9. I likewise believe that before Natural Gas goes on its next bull run, it's going to violently abuse the longs with a raid under $1.8 NatGas - No Moon Until Doom But with current price action, we may get a false breakout over $3.1 before that can happen. A pump in energy and metals in September would be congruent with the thesis that equities are going to have a very red September as a setup into a Q4 that takes out the highs, which I outline here on the Nasdaq ES Futures: Nasdaq Futures - Are You Prepared For Red September? But the problem for retail traders is everyone is "practical" and believes that we're going straight up from where we are. It's a new bull market, some guy who works for some big bank and is tasked with engineering liquidity for high net worth clients and funds, told social and establishment media. Equity bulls need to give their head a shake, though. And so do energy bulls. With the U.S. being net short hundreds of millions of barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the Fed reiterating that interest rates simply are not going to be cut until there's an international economic crash, the "long" trade only exists insofar as riding the wave that is intended to kill long term funds who are net short. If the scheme really is to rally like it's a new paradigm into Q4 and create a Bump and Run and then blow the world economy away in 2024 ahead of the next U.S. election, which Joe Biden will win because Donald Trump will die in prison, then there are significant risks. It's just like Burning Man where they decided to do a ritual sacrifice to the Azov cult in Ukraine and were met with a flood and rainbows and now are trapped in 6 inches of their own urine and feces and alkaline mud. What I mean by the above is that the best laid plans of mice and men always go awry, and this should be obvious to anyone who understands the situation in China with even a modicum of sobriety. Unfortunately, the people who understand China with a modicum of sobriety are almost nobody. Xi Jinping is an idiot who is still holding onto the Chinese Communist Party, the most murderous and worthless regime in all of human history. While Xi has never participated in the persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners, which was started July 20, 1999 by former Chairman Jiang Zemin, and has even been killing the Jiang Faction as his real target in the Anti-Corruption Campaign, Xi is still the head of the CCP. When the CCP falls, Xi will fall with it and be impugned as responsible for all of the Party's sins in all of history. And this means that in the process of the CCP falling, Xi may show a glint of intelligence and wisdom and overthrow the Party himself, Gorbachev style, using the persecution as a weapon to protect the real China from being taken over by the International Rules Based Order that uses Taiwan as a proxy. What all of this means for energy and equities and really everything else is significant gap downs are ahead in the markets, and are likely to come at prices that are high but not that high. This is because if significant problems in China emerge and go viral on social media that Party West's propaganda machine are unable to suppress, it will disrupt the plan, and all of those long positions that are set to sell at high prices will turn around and start market dumping. This means you'll wake up one morning and see that SPY and QQQ are down 12% on market open, and this time, unlike COVID, you aren't seeing daily reversals for mitigation. Everyone will just be open selling to get into USD cash to run for their lives. Nobody will be around to maintain the bots, and every market will look like a cryptocurrency memecoin. So here's the trade on oil. We may see an immediate reversal at $85, where we are now. But I think the real target is $95, which will take out that effective daily bar double top printed in November of last year. That will draw in all the $100 call moonboys, since energy bulls are even more irrational than goldbugs. And they'll expire worthless as we head into the $40s to end the year while Apple prints $220 and Tesla prints $420 and NVDIA prints $480 (lolAIbulls). So if you want a trade heading into September, maybe we get a retrace to $82 on oil. Consider going long with a stop under the $77.60~ low. Sell at $95. Look for big dumps and go short on the retrace and hold into February for a $30 candle. Then get long for January '25 printing $150+.by LordWrymouthUpdated 6
Crude oil live ..upwords on assending channel Fibonacci retracement. 0.6, 0.5 for reversal area..having assending channel.and assending channel 3-4 touch price makes bullish ..taregt will be till last high or break this for new high..Longby mansetsoft3
oil and silverWhere #CrudeOil goes... #Silver goes! Watch for those continuation breakout lines. Longby Badcharts3
Buy sell is mind game Buy sell is mind game Marke up trand buy Market down trand sell Market sideways 3 type of market Daliy bassis Market up trad ce buy by joyfulMeerkat90270
Decoding the Dance of Oil, Inflation, and Changing Markets"Oil is the lifeblood of modern civilization, fueling progress and shaping the course of nations." By ChartScope Published on August 25, 2023 Consider the shock of paying significantly more for your daily fuel needs. This not only affects your driving expenses but can ripple into higher costs for essentials like groceries and clothing. Enter the role of light crude oil, a behind-the-scenes player that holds more sway than meets the eye, influencing our economy in profound ways. Oil's Ripple Effect on Spending Light crude oil serves as a building block for everyday products and fuels. Lower oil prices usually translate to more affordable transportation and manufacturing, giving us a break in costs. Yet, when oil prices surge, a ripple effect ensues. As production and transportation expenses rise, businesses often pass these costs on to consumers. This chain reaction can trigger the already-known inflation, leading to steep price increases across the board. Market Shifts in the Spotlight Now, imagine the stock market as a roller coaster. It's been on a thrilling ascent for some time, but murmurs of a slowdown grow louder. The ride might become bumpier, leaving investors on edge. They start exploring alternative avenues to safeguard their investments and generate returns. Unveiling the Commodity Connection Enter commodities, like gold, crops, and even oil. These tangible assets retain value even amidst economic turbulence. As inflation starts to climb, people often turn to commodities as a haven for their money. Charting a Path Forward But let's analyze the data a bit more. My technical analysis indicates that light crude oil might dive below the $64 mark this year or the first half of next year, which could diverge from the narrative presented by Truflation's recent article. They posit that the turning point in CPI data has been reached, with growth ahead. However, with CPI potentially rising further in August and September, my analysis could show a decline by year-end or the first half of next year due to the dynamics of the oil market. Analyzing the Charts: Weekly Perspective After the prolonged correction phase following the 2008 financial crisis, 2020 marks a turning point for light crude oil. Elliott Wave Theory, a complex analytical tool, identifies an impulse phase followed by a correction phase. Currently, the chart appears to be stuck in the correction phase of the second wave. However, this correction is not yet complete based on the Fibonacci retracement, this is ideally within the Golden Pocket - the area between the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $56.07 and the 65% Fibonacci level at $52.22. The price could also go lower to test the upper side of the multi-year correction channel (blue). The maximum targeted price would be $35.84 or the 78.6% Fibonacci level. Note that these chart assumptions are based on technical analysis, not immediate news, which often occurs at event time. Looking at the price of oil relative to the stock market, this could be a turning point for both stocks and commodities. Multi-year oil price targets could be headed for $200, while equity markets could drop significantly as inflation hits a new high. Predicting time frames is difficult, but as mentioned earlier, the trend for light crude is downward. The chart below details the specific correction targets in more detail. In Summary Oil's influence is far-reaching, affecting inflation and the broader economy. Market shifts and the growing importance of commodities underscore the evolving financial landscape. As a technical analyst, my charts suggest a potential conflict with current CPI predictions, hinting at a different trajectory due to oil fluctuations. Navigating these interconnected dynamics requires vigilance, understanding, and an eye on both data and market trends. Technical Analysis - Not Financial Advice Remember that the insights shown here are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. I will be looking at indicators, chart patterns, and potential trends. To make informed decisions, it is important to understand the broader market landscape. Stay informed, stay alert, and remember that this is not financial advice.Shortby ChartScope3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL reached the target zone..Crude continues performing as anticipated. It reached today our target zone while showing ST overbought condition, be prepared for a profit taking wave in the coming sessions.by gentlemanlb3
CL Long Term AnalysisAccording to my analysis Crude Oil will go up and touch 100$ to 107$ range of previous year Pin bar level of Fibo 50 to 61% and bounce back down. this time find only buying opportunity till market touch the 100$. keep watching CL for next move.Longby Best_Trading_Setup0
Bobby's homework assignment Silver Oil9.5.23 In this video I tried to show how you could scalp the silver market on an opening price short trade. I projected that the market would do some things that it hasn't done yet so it will be interesting to go back and see what the market did since this video. At the time of this video I thought the market was going to go higher and lower. The oil went higher as we expected... it gives us some information to work with.... and in this case if we had shorted the initial signal with A $1,000 stop... we would have lost $1,000 or more.... no big deal because we can make that back in no time at all with the oil market. But it was better not to lose it.19:25by ScottBogatin117
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)Longby sepehrqanbari4
CRUDEOIL short Short crudeoil from this level expecting around the two to 2.5% down side from hereShortby KDMRR2
Oil Bobby's homework assignment9 5 23 Oil is a great example of how markets can be easy to trade at times and difficult to trade at other times. My gut level feeling is it oil has taken out a lot of sellers and and then your natural inclination is to think that it should correct lower. What goes up a lot must come down at least a little. But sometimes what goes up a lot Doesn't correct so much and then it keeps Going higher. I think that is what is happening here but I'm not sure. and whether I'm a buyer or a seller, there is an issue of risk versus reward...And I have some issues with that as well. This is a real difficult trade decision for me.... but I believe the market will be making new highs.... I would really like to see one or two new bars and then that may bring greater clarity. It's still worth looking at because some markets are just tougher to make a trade decision and it has nothing to do with you as a trader....the market will bring clarity. Generally I do not call trades that are ambiguous... I try not to take trades that are ambiguous.... and that is because I am Ambivalent when trades are Ambiguous: that is one of my rules. I figure ambiguous markets are function of the market and buyers and sellers to make up the market. My ambivalence Is about my decision to not take a trade or to get out of a market. I don't worry too much about missing a trade.... I'm much more concerned about losing money in a trade that wasn't clear to me in the first place. 19:58by ScottBogatin3
Oil Caution9.4.23 There needs to be A caution here. I was answering the question on the previous oil video how to deal with an opening price when the market opened. There are clues that the market may go lower especially when the market comes to a measured move where you would expect the reversal and for the market to go lower. The problem with the first assessment Is that I wasn't looking at enough of the chart when I did the previous video. With that information we could find a reason for the market to move actually significantly higher. You don't want to make a mistake that changes your perspective of the market because you missed market behavior in the past that would change your bias because your assessment was incomplete. We added some more lines in a fairly quick fashion and then we'll wait and see what the market does and all of this is pretty much worked out before anything has really happened. One thing that creates a problem about your objectivity as a traitor... Is the propensity to not think like a buyer and a seller even though you're going to take one side of the trade.05:25by ScottBogatin116
Crude could retest then ripI understand some technicals are bullish right meow, although I don’t trust buyer supper after a rip like this… and here’s why. After breaking the uptrend, all attempts to breakout and back into bullish territory we’re rejected. And market makers pushed the closing price neatly back under key levels before each candle closed. I chose to sell 500 barrels after watching the main candle (on the hourly) touch the ceiling and pullback to close under the trend line. All within a few moments of the hourly candle closing. I suspect this created some confusion and sucked in both buyers and sellers. Great set up all around. Got me to bite on it. Interesting side note, news articles are yapping about all the supply chain issues and cuts… Driving the price up. Although, few countries may be holding back a few barrels, with restrictions also helping create this “supply chain issue” to pump the market… restrictions, new regulations, new cuts, blah blah blah… bigger question is when are these, somewhat grey area reserves being introduced to the market ? And how drastically will this affect the price ? An instantaneous flood of millions of barrels will dilute the market and fluctuate prices dramatically. The big question is when ? And at what price do they want to introduce all these barrels ? I’m long near the 84.75 I’d like to see 92 afterwards… but who knows when the market will be diluted by these sideways ass hush hush reserves that no one’s making a big deal about. They bought them for cheap because of the war and restrictions.. and are going to sell them high and ride the diluted market back down to new lows. And, Rinse repeat. Same old same old. Anyways, quick rant over. Patiently waiting to see how this opens, Hopefully it doesn’t pop up on me. Not advice. Take this with a grain of salt. Do you homework. Cheers, GLHFBS Longby ImminentDanger0
my view about crudeAs I can see there is rounding pattern on crude oil. that can work like support. now i am not giving support and resistance here because it is in curving pattern. All of these are learning purpose and not recommendation of buying or selling.by jangidvijendra776
OIL9.4.23 This is a review of oil. I was asked if I would short this market at the current price which is a two bar reversal.... and I think the price action is so bullish I would wait for a trade and I wouldn't short right now.... but it is a two bar reversal the short... but not for me. There's so much going on in this market that I used my time to talk about some of that as well.20:00by ScottBogatin116
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)Longby sepehrqanbari2
Huge close for Oil Oil looks good, Role out of a long term resistance holding it back since Nov 22. First time it’s closed over on 4Hr and Daily. Not sure what is in store when this opens… waiting for a signal. Longby ImminentDanger0
Crude Oil Rips Higher on Tight InventoriesTechnical Momentum Strengthens Crude Oil futures have been range-bound since the start of August, trapped between $85 on the upside and $75 on the downside. The technical perspective shows momentum studies rising from oversold territories, with the 8-day moving average trending just above the 34-day. DMI + crossed back above DMI -, indicating that the bull market we have seen since July may have just been catching its breath in August and will make another run at new contract highs in September. EIA Inventories remain tight EIA Inventory tightness remains, indicating a tighter supply picture with current EIA inventories sitting at 423 million barrels versus the five-year average of 438 million barrels for this time period. The real stress remains in the Mid-West, where Cushing stocks recorded their fourth weekly decline in the past five, showing 29 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 35 million barrels. Global Demand Remains Firm Global demand has strengthened with the resiliency behind the U.S. economy and supportive measures from China (the world's second-largest economy). Exports from Saudi Arabia have plunged in August, leaving upside momentum to continue in September. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Longby Phil_Blue_Line220