S&P-500 may take a breather nowElliott wave analysis on s&p500 The extending wave 'C' finishes its 3rd rise, now its time for wave 4 fall which is obviously a zigzag in nature, since this is motive wave ,you can hold PUTs until 5000Shortby selvamBUpdated 4
EXTENTED 5 th WAVE IN S&P500Will this 2nd wave of extension surpass 5177? watch this level for termination Longby selvamBUpdated 11
Is this BEARISH divergence forming on the $SPY of any concern?Looking at the 1M on the AMEX:SPY , it's leading me to think if we close below last months low, we should be confirming regular bearish divergence, giving us a target of at least to the 21e . Please see chart for reference of current target. fastlanewinners.comShortby FastLaneWinners0
How low will $SPX drop?CNBC reported a significant downturn in the S&P 500, marking its most substantial decline since January. What were the underlying factors? In my analysis, two key reasons stand out: 1. A surge in market panic selling occurred on Friday (12th April 2024) amidst escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. This heightened geopolitical uncertainty prompted investors to adopt a risk-averse stance, refraining from holding stocks over the weekend in anticipation of potential further escalation. 2. Notably, the projected timing of the first rate cut, initially anticipated for June 2024, has been deferred to September 2024, according to insights from FedWatch. This adjustment has led to a notable decline in the probability of a rate cut in June, dropping from 54.6% to 26.9% within just over a month. Preparation for such market conditions commenced as early as January, amidst the market's ascent from 4111 in October 2023 to 4782 by December 2023. Based on technical indicators, concerning trends have emerged, with the MACD signaling a downward trajectory on weekly charts and the RSI indicating overbought conditions. The pivotal question remains: What is the anticipated extent of the SP:SPX decline? Predictions remain uncertain. Nevertheless, I've outlined potential buying entry points: 1. 4952 - 20SMA - 10% entry 2. 4600 - 50SMA - 30% entry 3. 4344 - 150SMA - 40% entry (though this appears improbable) 4. 4168 - 200SMA - 20% entry (a scenario akin to the third bear market in just two years) While I sincerely hope to avoid the specter of WW3, with its inherent human and economic costs, I remain poised to seize investment opportunities within the coming 1-2 years. As always, these insights do not constitute financial advice.by timothyting180
SPX local Top?With the MACD positive momentum waning, and the Stoch RSI crossing back under the Bullish control Zone i would look to the .236 fib retracement ( 4994) for the first target. The Bull Market Support Band will be closing in to the level in the future , may act as a magnet. This idea is on a weekly time frame so it could take months to play out.Shortby riskit1010
Looking for continuation if we break 5100 supportUS Credit spreads are widening against most majors and also against HYG suggesting tightening of monetary policy. If this trend continues alongside rate divergence then it may provide a catalyst for technical levels to the downside to be reached. The 61.8 fib of the last move up combined with a CDX HYG of 400 (prior structure) provides for an SP500 at 4600. Points of interest would include a retest of 5150 and/or a break of 5100 with 4hr confirmation candle to remain within the channel to the downside. I would not over stay my welcome however as long term corporate buy backs at these levels would quickly support the index regardless of PE value compression. Shortby goo_square-0h0
Guess We'll SeeSnP 500 Short We'll see i guess. With the fundamentals looming i think equities will dump or take a hit, allong with the 2024 election. Shortby TraderNolan0
Another drop for SPX500USD is comingHi traders, Last week SPX500USD made an impulsive downmove followed by a deeper retracement up before it dropped again just like I've said in my outlook. Now we should see another correction up to rebalance into the FVG and another drop. Trade idea: Trade sells after a (small) correction up on a lower timeframe and a change in orderflow to bearish. If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! EduwaveShortby EduwaveTrading0
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Spooz continue to experience a severe drop in this week's trading session, hitting our two Mae Sup levels: 5150 and 5120, respectively. The current price action indicates that the market will pursue an upside movement to target our Mean Res 5208 and beyond. On the downside, Spooz may continue on a downward spiral to the Mean Support level of 5070 and Outer Index Dip at 5045, which is expected to act as a launching point to reignite its bullish trend.by TradeSelecter3
US500 is under the pressure of a strong dollarHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring US500 for a selling opportunity around 5200 zone, US500 is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 5200 support and resistance area. We would also like to consider the current bullish momentum on the dollar, due to the negative correlation a strong dollar usually put pressure on indices like S&P500. Trade safe, Joe.Shortby JoeChampion5
sp500 maxed out.fibonaaci levels showing me the SPX has peaked and more money printing is required. Even though real interest rates are still negative (loose money) the SPX has struggled to break higher. Fed needs to pump more money and buy more bonds. If it can not do this then Fibonacci has decided the market top. and a 38% retrace could happen. Shortby RogueCleaner113
S&P 500 on Track to Snap Five-Month Bullish PhaseThe S&P 500 finished another week in negative territory, shedding -1.6% (-2.5% MTD). While it is clear that this market remains the domain of buyers, 90% of the upside in March has been reclaimed, and evidence is building for a deeper correction. Deeper Correction Possible Kicking things off from the monthly chart, following last week's all-time high of 5,264, there is plenty of scope for a deeper correction to as far south as support at 4,776. Increasing the chances of further downside on the monthly scale is the early signs of negative divergence out of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) ahead of overbought territory. Moving across a frame to the weekly chart, the RSI also responded from indicator resistance at 79.04 (a level extended from as far back as early 2020) and recently departed from overbought space (a bearish signal for many who follow this oscillator). With respect to price action, following the prior week’s bearish engulfing pattern, last week concluded within a stone’s throw of support made up between the 5,000 level and channel resistance-turned-potential support, taken from the high of 4,607. Meanwhile, out of the daily timeframe, Friday’s -1.5% fall led the market average to test the mettle of the 50-day simple moving average at 5,111 by the week’s end, positioned just north of a moderate Fibonacci cluster at around 5,050. Although buyers could attempt to defend the simple moving average (mean reversion strategies are likely to take profit here, for example), any rebound is unlikely to be exciting as support commands attention between the 5,000 level and the noted Fibonacci cluster. Direction This Week? Technically, a deeper correction is likely this week until the 5,000 area, where chart studies suggest buyers could make an appearance in line with the underlying uptrend. The area between the 5,000 level and the channel resistance-turned-potential support on the weekly timeframe, as well as the Fibonacci cluster on the daily chart, is likely to be watched closely for signs of buying this week if tested. Longby FPMarkets3
SPX500 SELL SET-UP SPX500 at has reached at resistance level according to weekly chart..The next step is to look for sell entry and observe risk management.Shortby Jeremyforex1211
SPX Time Machine Historical CyclesI am dreaming of a swan song 🦢 event and a break from its traditional cycles. In this analysis, 7-year cycles fractal out into larger macro cycles, and so on. Just for fun...by EsotericTradingUpdated 0
just got a chance to update the moneyMy old lines remain the same. The market have the potential to go back S&P 500 4700.Shortby sj4651770
If History Rhymes, Here Is Top and BottomI am still quite confident the markets are set to drop significantly in 2024. I have studied correctional wave patterns that are similar to our current situation wherein the market topped on January 4, 2022 and began the corrective pattern. **The pattern contains a wave B that is larger than wave A in duration and movement. The wave C then moves more than wave B** The current case so far so the index drop 1,327.04 points over 195 trading days. As of the close on March 6, 2024, wave B has gained 1,658.09 points in 347 trading days (the current top for this calculation is 5149.67 on March 4. CURRENT SITUATION SO FAR: I have found similar conditions 11 times historically and studied how waves B and C reacted in those situations and applied it to the current case to determine where wave B could end and what wave C could do. ******2023****** This first event began February 24, 2023. I will use 6 minute bars for comparisons. This is an inversion to today's scenario as the B wave moved down instead of up. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 74.97 points over 58 trading bars Wave B moved 89.89 points over 193 trading bars Wave C moved 150.33 points over 149 trading bars Wave A was 30.05% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 119.90% of wave A's movement Wave A was 38.93% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 200.52% of wave A's movement The full inverted movement picture was this: If we apply the data explicitly to the data from our 2022 wave A, wave B could last 647 trading days gaining 1,591.14 points placing the market top at 5,082.72. Wave C could then lose 2,660.98 points in 501 trading days. ******2018****** This next event began January 26, 2023. I have returned to daily bars for this scenario. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 319.07 points over 44 trading days Wave B moved 387.11 points over 121 trading days Wave C moved 594.33 points over 65 trading days Wave A was 36.36% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 121.32% of wave A's movement Wave A was 67.69% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 186.27% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 536 trading days gaining 1,609.96 points placing the market top at 5,101.54. Wave C could then lose 2,471.88 points in 288 trading days. ******2014****** This next event began July 24, 2014. I will use hourly trading bars for this example. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 82.38 points over 73 trading hours Wave B moved 110.25 points over 205 trading hours Wave C moved 198.6 points over 129 trading hours Wave A was 35.61% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 133.83% of wave A's movement Wave A was 56.59% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 241.08% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 548 trading days gaining 1,775.98 points placing the market top at 5,267.56. Wave C could then lose 3,199.23 points in 344 trading days. ******2011****** This next event began January 19, 2011. I will use hourly trading bars for this example. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 23.34 points over 6 trading hours Wave B moved 31.41 points over 22 trading hours Wave C moved 26.17 points over 4 trading hours Wave A was 27.27% % the duration of wave B Wave B moved 134.58% of wave A's movement Wave A was 150% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 112.13% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 715 trading days gaining 1,785.93 points placing the market top at 5,277.51. Wave C could then lose 1,488.01 points in 130 trading days. ******2005****** This next event began March 7, 2005. I will return to daily trading bars for this example and the rest after this point. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 89.47 points over 31 trading days Wave B moved 109.64 points over 73 trading days Wave C moved 77.44 points over 50 trading days Wave A was 42.47% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 122.54% of wave A's movement Wave A was 62.00% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 86.55% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 459 trading days gaining 1,626.15 points placing the market top at 5,117.73. Wave C could then lose 1,148.55 points in 314 trading days. ******2000****** This next event began March 24, 2000. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 784.24 points over 639 trading days Wave B moved 807.46 points over 1259 trading days Wave C moved 909.3 points over 352 trading days Wave A was 50.75% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 102.96% of wave A's movement Wave A was 181.53% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 115.95% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 384 trading days gaining 1,366.32 points placing the market top at 4,857.90. Wave C could then lose 1,538.70 points in 107 trading days. ******1990****** This next event began January 3, 1990. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 40.76 points over 19 trading days Wave B moved 49.95 points over 115 trading days Wave C moved 75.27 points over 62 trading days Wave A was 16.52% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 122.55% of wave A's movement Wave A was 30.65% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 184.67% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 1,180 trading days gaining 1,626.29 points placing the market top at 5,117.87. Wave C could then lose 2,450.64 points in 636 trading days. ******1979****** This next event began October 5, 1979. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 13.1 points over 11 trading days Wave B moved 21.16 points over 79 trading days Wave C moved 25.99 points over 30 trading days Wave A was 13.92% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 161.53% of wave A's movement Wave A was 36.67% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 198.40% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 1,401 trading days gaining 2,143.57 points placing the market top at 5,635.15. Wave C could then lose 2,632.85 points in 532 trading days. ******1968****** This next event began December 2, 1968. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 40.76 points over 368 trading days Wave B moved 53.13 points over 665 trading days Wave C moved 60.78 points over 437 trading days Wave A was 55.34% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 130.35% of wave A's movement Wave A was 84.21% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 149.12% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 352 trading days gaining 1,729.80 points placing the market top at 5,221.38. Wave C could then lose 1,978.88 points in 231 trading days. ******1965****** This next event began May 13, 1965. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 9.95 points over 32 trading days Wave B moved 13.99 points over 156 trading days Wave C moved 22.44 points over 168 trading days Wave A was 20.51% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 140.60% of wave A's movement Wave A was 19.05% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 225.53% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 950 trading days gaining 1,865.82 points placing the market top at 5,357.40. Wave C could then lose 2,992.87 points in 1,024 trading days. Based on all of these instances, some are too far off to rhyme to our current situation when it comes to likely duration of wave B or top while others have options in play in the very near-term. With our current high 347 days into wave B, the next likely duration candidates are: 352, 384, 459, 536, 548, 647, 715, and 950. With only one top more than 300 points ago, nearby tops for wave B are at: 5,102, 5,118 (twice), 5,221, 5,267, 5,277, 5,357, and 5,635. One of the historically similar instances possible in the near-term for both the duration and top are from 1968. A replication or near similar movement could place the top on next Monday at 5,221. This happens to be the day prior to the next CPI reading. A CPI increase could further delay or altogether push rate cuts off the table this year. If this is the exact top, the bottom could occur 231 trading days later near 3,242.50. This level aligns very near my original forecasted low below 3,300 (granted I figured the top would have been in well before now). The bottom could be around February 10, 2025 which is also in my semi-wide ballpark of the original market bottom forecasted on July 4, 2022. The highest retracement for wave B's movement in relation to wave C is 161% from 1979, while most reside in the 119%-135% range. We have currently retraced (over extended) around 125% of wave A's movement. We shall see what occurs as time moves on. If a drastic falls is still set to occur, it will take cascading events likely to the finance and technology sectors to make it so.Shortby StockSignalerUpdated 2218
Commodities index vs SPX In 2007, the commodities index started rising sharply just after the market top. You should have sold your stocks just before that last increase in the commodity index. When there's a bubble brewing in commodities, you should sell. Markets crash when commodities sharply rise then fall. Longby brian76830
Bullish correctionWXY (double zigzag is complete). May evolve into a triple combo. So far looks niceLongby Alpha_Mind0
Trade Idea based off recession indicator & squeeze any advice?another pullback? Recession Probability Value of Spread (Percent) (Percentage Points) 5 1.21 10 0.76 15 0.46 20 0.22 25 0.02 30 -0.17 40 -0.50 50 -0.82 60 -1.13 70 -1.46 80 -1.85 90 -2.40 Shortby zingraphicsUpdated 4
SPX analysis at Time One daily timeThis index continues its upward trend and the ceiling of 48,000 will be broken The price has made its protected floor by hitting its local support and is doing fractal behavior to break the price ceiling. I watch the market Not financial advice Longby fiftytwohertzwhaleUpdated 6
S&P 500: Bouhmidi-Reversal now with TPOAfter the initial balance, we see that the index continues its weakness and has broken through the 1 Bouhmidi-Bands and the point of control (POC) of Wednesday . Today, the previous day's low and the 1.5 Bouhmidi-Band converge at 5138. A test of 5138 is possible with even a reversal towards the BB range. I also now include TPO charts Longby Sisa872