When good trendlines go badSo, the channel finally breaks and we head lower to support. Will update the idea tomorrow with targets etc.Uby Herenya4
Market update FX, Indices, BTC - missed shorts = opportunityHello Everyone, Doom & gloom? Not quite. Although i missed some good shorts across the board i am going to be patient and let the price dictate what happens next and what should i do. Sometimes you miss trades, in hindsight, it seemed easy to take a short but it was a 50/50 gamble and i am okay with missing out some trades. I always follow my plan and i think some USD selling will happen soon unless market has other plans and ofc there are black swan events such as another war. That will fuel up oil prices and most likely inflation with it. So keep an eye on potential conflicts. In terms of US CPI i have to admit that i was caught by surprise when everything looked super bullish on the charts. The flush on Tuesday seemed like someone leaked the data and apparently that was the case as it was discovered that the bureau of labor statistics gave a heads up to "super users" way too early. I really thought it might've been a de risking event. Have a great day and hope you enjoyed the update! 15:48by teambacktotrade0
SPX morning updateMy bearish count has SPX topping out today somewhere below 5186.69, with one more daily lower-low (this week) to complete a contracting leading diagonal (1).by discobiscuit1
spx priced in gold + dxyIf #SPX priced in #Gold can't break to the upside... Then watch out for a new #USDollar bear market when the roll over completes! Please chime in any narratives you want as to why this can or cannot happen in the comments below.by Badcharts5
Aggressive rate cuts are off the tableThe SPX retreated nearly 3% from its all-time highs following last week’s print showing a higher-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024. This marks a second consecutive month of accelerating CPI in the United States, which presents an obstacle for the FED in its more than two-year-long battle against inflation. Plus, it makes it increasingly unlikely that the central bank will engage in aggressive rate cutting as is still widely expected. Not only is it improbable that the FED will ease its monetary policy during the FOMC meeting between 30th April and 1st May 2024, but the latest print puts future rate cuts in jeopardy as well. Since the start of the hiking cycle, we have believed that it will be challenging for the FED to lower rates quickly. Thus far, this opinion has been supported by elevated and sticky inflation. Furthermore, rising prices of commodities make an arguably good case for this to stay true also in the upcoming months, tying FED’s hands for a little longer. In turn, this raises the chances of the central bank constricting the economy too much, leading to an economic accident. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Yellow arrows indicate important technical developments in the past month. As the reality of no aggressive rate cuts is starting to sink in, there is a good chance that volatility will stay elevated in the near future. Illustration 1.02 The price of WTI crude oil rose nearly 20% this year. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have been playing an important role in influencing its price over the past few months. If there is a broader conflict between Israel and Iran (which is at the highest odds in the past ten years), then oil could rise in the upper range between $90 and $100, putting further pressure on inflation. Illustration 1.03 The image above shows the SPX in the ascending channel. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the upper bound of the channel. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish (stalling) *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade. Shortby Tradersweekly7
short?Are we ready for a correction? We broke down and now we should keep going down as long the candle dont close above the highest candle this is a good setup for a big move down.Shortby misternico3
US500 Bullish Long Term - Keep BuyingUS500 keep buying on daily till bullish trend stops. US500 bullish till bearish appears on weekly.Longby nm3107Updated 1110
S&P 500S&P 500 is in a downward channel and is forming head and shoulders pattern. You can see the possible scenario.by Masoud4021
Resumption of the bullish momentum?The S&P 500 (US500) has made a bullish reaction off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance. Pivot: 5,117.40 1st Support: 4,956.50 1st Resistance: 5,263.47 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.ULongby ICmarkets1
Break out of pitchfork with rsi also structure break Broke multiple bearish continuations. Typically cycle violently breaks from pitchfork. Advanced rsi momentum break observation. A great stop behind volitile buyers. Longby user28394091
🗓️Weekly Report: Key levels & Trade IdeasGENERAL MARKET REVIEW Concerns over a potential military attack by Iran on Israel triggered a gap down in the market at the beginning of trading on Friday. Following these events, there was a surge in oil prices, which then led to widespread sell-offs across the board. Virtually all stocks took a hit, with growth stocks experiencing declines ranging from $2 to $72, notably including MicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR . For this evening's analysis, we'll begin by examining the charts of the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) and the S&P-500 (SPX). –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– SPX-500 The SP:SPX has been movig lower and plundged to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (red) on Friday. Holding this line could lead to an oversold bounce on the market. However, should a broader market selling start, then it is very possible that we test the 5000 psychological level or even the 4700 level that was rejected in August 2023 and February 2023. 💡Another interesting fact SP:SPX has created 22 all time highs this year (2024) and returned more than 25% over the past five months and has gone more than 1 year without experiancng a 1 day decling more than -2%. This is the 6th longest such streak since 1965. If you are wondering when are the other times: 2007, 1986, 1996, 2018, 1993. On average the index makes only 29 consecutive trading days without a 1 day that has more than -2% decline💡 –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– QQQ Very similar as it is clinging on the 50-day Simple Moving Average. QQQ and SPX are holding much better than the IWM or DIA, which have been consistently underperforming on their Relative Strength against the SPX. –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– META Meta has earnings on 24April (Wednesday). It has been holding very well and is a constructive pattern. You can see a triangle forming. Pay attention to the volume pattern. When the stock is moving up in this base the volume bars are higher than when the stock is moving lower –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– NVDA Too choppy for anything more than a quick trade. Next Technical buy point for me is at the $974 on heavy volume. I could start nibble on it with a quarter or a half position size as it is making constructive formations within this forming base. Constructive formations = higher highs, tight pivots. This is very watched stock so it would have high correlation to the general market by TintinTrading1
SPX500 heads up at 5100: major fib cluster with 5137 the keySPX500 has just hit a massive resistance zone. Cluster includes Genesis, Covid, and other fibs. Expecting a reaction here, perhaps a local top? 5109 - 5166 is the exact zone of interest. 4896 - 4901 is the first good support below. 5429 - 5493 is next major resistance above. ========================================== by EuroMotifUpdated 28
Earnings alert: Companies to watch for potential trades this weeAs we step into the second week of the Q1 earnings season, a roster of major financial players is gearing up to unveil their financial reports. Expect updates from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, American Express, Blackstone, and Charles Schwab. Additionally, non-financial companies like UnitedHealth, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Netflix, P&G, J&J, and ASML Holding are also slated to release their earnings. While bank stocks have been outperforming the broader S&P 500 Index in the past six months, the tide may be turning in the first quarter of this year. Despite JPMorgan's announcement of a modest 6% rise in profits on Friday, shares dropped over 5% following the bank's conservative full-year projections for net interest income. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo and Citigroup saw declines in profits. On Wednesday, eyes will be on Discover Financial Services as it presents its results following the announcement of its acquisition by Capital One in February. And wrapping up the week is American Express, which is set to report after providing strong full-year guidance and increasing its dividend in the last quarter. Blackstone is expected to reveal a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues. Thursday brings Netflix's report, with the streaming giant aiming to maintain its momentum in subscriber growth. Netflix's management has recently expressed confidence in their growth strategy, emphasizing improvements across all aspects of their platform, the introduction of paid sharing, and the expansion of their advertising offerings. Consumer product giants Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble will disclose their earnings on Tuesday and Friday respectively, offering insights into whether increased prices are sustaining revenue growth. Meanwhile, health insurer UnitedHealth Group is set to report on Tuesday amid rumors of an antitrust investigation. by BlackBull_Markets6
SPX: in a correction mood?Market never liked uncertainties, which was evident on the US equity markets for one more time. The optimism from the beginning of this year is still not fading, however, it reacts to increased inflation data in the US and also geopolitical tensions, which for one more time are emerging in the Middle East. The future period might bring some challenges to the market optimism, regardless of the fact that the US economy is in a relatively good shape, despite restrictive monetary policy. Aside, it should be also considered that China`s authorities brought a decision not to use foreign made chips in local computers. As Wall Street Journal reported, companies which would be most impacted by this decision are AMD and Intel, whose stock prices fell around 5% during the previous week. The S&5 500 closed Friday`s trading session 1.46% lower. This was the second worst trading day since the beginning of this year. The index closed at level of 5.123. Some impact on this move had a relatively disappointing release of Q1 results within the banking industry. JPMorgan shares dropped by more than 6%, Wells Fargo was down by 0.4% while Citigroup slipped by 1.7%. Charts are showing that the S&P 500 is still not in the oversold momentum, however, it is moving toward this territory. In this sense, and taking into account geopolitical and economic risks, there is some probability that correction might continue during the course of the week ahead. by XBTFX15
PERFECT BUY for the SP500 - Low Risk High Reward!As you can see, there is major support on both trendiness + the current price is balancing on the powerful 50.0 Fibonacci level! This would be a great time to buy and take profit all the way to the top! Low risk high reward opportunity.Longby VIPindicators2
sp500 prepares for a retracement fibonacci speaks clearly, we are ready for a bearish leg, which could bounce into the clear support, and which coincides with fibonacci 38.2, to continue its run, up to the illustrated area, made with the fibonacci reversal.Longby TheAverageTrader23
US500 - WEEKLY FORECASTForecast: Start of Bearish Trend (Daily) Invalidation Level: 5281.7 Only sell when the price is close to these levels: 5151.3; 5281.7. Shortby TradingDame1
US500 Will Go Up! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for US500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 5122.2. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 5315.3 level soon. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!Longby SignalProvider229
S&P-500 may take a breather nowElliott wave analysis on s&p500 The extending wave 'C' finishes its 3rd rise, now its time for wave 4 fall which is obviously a zigzag in nature, since this is motive wave ,you can hold PUTs until 5000Shortby selvamBUpdated 4
EXTENTED 5 th WAVE IN S&P500Will this 2nd wave of extension surpass 5177? watch this level for termination Longby selvamBUpdated 11
Is this BEARISH divergence forming on the $SPY of any concern?Looking at the 1M on the AMEX:SPY , it's leading me to think if we close below last months low, we should be confirming regular bearish divergence, giving us a target of at least to the 21e . Please see chart for reference of current target. fastlanewinners.comShortby FastLaneWinners0
How low will $SPX drop?CNBC reported a significant downturn in the S&P 500, marking its most substantial decline since January. What were the underlying factors? In my analysis, two key reasons stand out: 1. A surge in market panic selling occurred on Friday (12th April 2024) amidst escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. This heightened geopolitical uncertainty prompted investors to adopt a risk-averse stance, refraining from holding stocks over the weekend in anticipation of potential further escalation. 2. Notably, the projected timing of the first rate cut, initially anticipated for June 2024, has been deferred to September 2024, according to insights from FedWatch. This adjustment has led to a notable decline in the probability of a rate cut in June, dropping from 54.6% to 26.9% within just over a month. Preparation for such market conditions commenced as early as January, amidst the market's ascent from 4111 in October 2023 to 4782 by December 2023. Based on technical indicators, concerning trends have emerged, with the MACD signaling a downward trajectory on weekly charts and the RSI indicating overbought conditions. The pivotal question remains: What is the anticipated extent of the SP:SPX decline? Predictions remain uncertain. Nevertheless, I've outlined potential buying entry points: 1. 4952 - 20SMA - 10% entry 2. 4600 - 50SMA - 30% entry 3. 4344 - 150SMA - 40% entry (though this appears improbable) 4. 4168 - 200SMA - 20% entry (a scenario akin to the third bear market in just two years) While I sincerely hope to avoid the specter of WW3, with its inherent human and economic costs, I remain poised to seize investment opportunities within the coming 1-2 years. As always, these insights do not constitute financial advice.by timothyting180
SPX local Top?With the MACD positive momentum waning, and the Stoch RSI crossing back under the Bullish control Zone i would look to the .236 fib retracement ( 4994) for the first target. The Bull Market Support Band will be closing in to the level in the future , may act as a magnet. This idea is on a weekly time frame so it could take months to play out.Shortby riskit1010