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The Italian Government sent the aggressive budget proposal to Brussels, with Finance Minister Tria suggesting he can "explain" things to EU counterparties and receive acceptance. Market participants know it's a long shot, and BTPs should come under more pressure.
Italy continued to be a sticking point for European policymakers. Salvini and DiMaio are not collaborating and want a higher budget deficit for 2019 than the EU will allow. Deadline is October 15th.
Italy's populist government kept some of it's promises and delivered a hefty budget for 2019 ata deficit of 2.4%.
Markets are pricing in more of a conflict between Italy and Brussels. THis move down has quite a ways to go.
Clash between EU and Italy becoming more evident as Italy Rating Outlook Cut by Fitch on Possible Fiscal Loosening but "Italians come before ratings agencies" deputy PM says - “We have to put the financing in the budget so that at least 5 million impoverished Italians can get back to work.”
90.00 might break soon, on the back of continued tension between Italy's populist government and the EU.
Recent comments from Italy's DiMaio continue to worry markets that a future clash is possible which will put yet another dent in the EU's cohesion.
A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Right now Italy doesn't look so good with capital flights and a weakening economy.
On the technical side of things, price had a nice reaction with the lows which happens to be the all time lows in the Italian bonds.
This is a place I'd look for longs but first , I'd need proof that buyers are still here.
hello guys here's a new idea on italy BTP. First of all, we saw recently that the market wants to speculate (again) on BTP, this means that interest rate until September will go down, then will rise due to rating agencies decision and what is called 'DEF', the document of economics and finance by the Government. In this document there'll be the outline of fiscal ...
Our negative bias remains in play as prices continue to hold below the recent flip zone.
BTPs bounced the key resistance area and have closed below a recent flip zone on the back of fears that Italy will not comply with EU rules in forming it's next budget, that contains flat-tax proposals and a hefty pension reform.
Look for further losses today.
Italy's Deputy PM DiMaio confirms markets' fears: this morning he said
that respecting fiscal rules is not the priority in the next budget.
Until 94.00 is broken to the upside, pressure still remains.
Better picture if we hold here below 93.00 and push towards 90.00 again.
Italian BTPs are under pressure again, after bouncing recent highs. The narrative this time round is a top-level meeting
amongst ministers to plan the next budget. The market fears that Italy's populist government will pressure EU fiscal rules...
Market participants are watching this move in BTPs today, as Northern League leader Salvini is
asking for the resignation of Italy's Finance Minister Tria.
Italian politicians are attempting to calm the markets.
Today this seems to be working, and driving risk-on.
Eyes on the key levels.
After another negative close, stops can be trailed to 93.00 looking for 90.00 as a first target.
Keep an eye on the Italian political agenda and on risk aversion which seems to be creeping in.
Yesterday we expected the Italian 10yr to break back through recent supports, after Conte's initial proposals on immigration, taxes, welfare seem to imply a decisive clash with Brussels. These measures would be good for the population, but EU will not allow them.
Further downside is expected and 90.00 is the first target.
The Italian Government has started it's fight against Brussels.
BTPs are responding and we may see further downside today.
Conte's League/MS5 Government would win a vote of confidence today.
A clash with Brussels is only a matter of time. Markets a little nervous.
A breach of key supports would open up the downside again.