All indications show we might be heading into a recession. Join me as i analyze the short term and long term US Government bond yields.
A number of news sources reported in the lat 2 days that J Powell's favorite yield curve as a recession indicator is an inverted 3 month and 10 year. These are now inverted and have only inverted 3 other times according to this data Before the 2000 crash Before the Global Financial Crisis Before Covid lockdowns Its virtually assured at this point...
The days following Nov 2 FOMC will be extremely volatile.
This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
Bye bye 👋 😘. This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
Arrow show target of auction at august 11, 2022 for 10 years T-Note.
Well, it has happened again! We of course see the 2yr/10yr yield curve inversion: It has been like this for some time. However, all I hear is: “But this time it is different!” The U.S. curve has inverted before EACH recession since 1955, with a recession following consistently between 6-24 months after. Only one time in this time-frame has this...
Watching the 3 mo and 2 year very closely. I think this is an indicator for a recession and not the 2 and 10's because it shows more that the short term risk is outweighing anything mid term. Everything is is wishy washy with definitions now a days lol but this is going to be the icing on the cake for confirmations. Looking at the dollar strength we had a little...
It appears to be in the early 2% range. If you can hold out until now, it seems good to invest in other investments.
Sorry for the long break, I have been attending to numerous other endeavors. At this point, cryptocurrency is down significantly from my long calls and the world seems to be turning upside down. Have no fear, these holds are for life, they are not day trades. Allow me to do a global macro breakdown from my eyes. I posted this US 3MY chart since this in essence is...
Hong kong: Is anyone paying attention? The HKD peg is being tested. The Banking bubble in both China & Hongkong are pretty bad. Both China's and Hong Kong's banking assets are at unprecedented levels China = 417% of GDP Hong Kong = 962% of GDP
The driver for yesterday's rally was the quarterly refunding estimate of the US Treasury Department, which implied, that balance sheet runoff could be neutralised for a couple weeks by less short term funding ( see SPX Gamma Wrap ). This drivers has entirely evaporated today ( see chart above ) as yields for short term papers continue to rise again. Something to...
Since at least 1990, whenever the 3month U.S. Government Bond Yield has risen higher than the 10year Bond, the market top on SPX occurs a short time later. Also, in most cases, whenever the 10year yield has hit the magenta trendline, a 3mo/10yr inversion results within 6-12 months. The 10 year yield is currently above the trendline, implying that we could be 6...
interest rates on US government bonds, for all time scales of government bonds
What is the difference between TVC:US03MY and FRED:DGS3MO? I see that they have different sources, but I don’t know what TVC is. Also, their meanings are quite different at some time. At the time of publication this post, these are 0.424 and 0.25. If you are qualified to know the difference, please answer this question in the comments. Thank you.