Danger above zero. Recessionary bear markets are characterized by danger as defined as by inverted yield curve (above zero). This was the case in previous 3 recessionary bear markets. Bullish so long as not above zero.
US Bond Yield (and prices) have been an early indicator of future market prices. Eg. US 1yr yield vs US 10 yr yield, if it goes negative, means the world's largest pool of investors (US bond market) believes that near term there will be a financial crisis/market crash/deflationary cycle.
Publishing to track the movement of all the various bonds. TVC:MOVE is in the bottom pane.
Rising long term interest rates and low short term rates are very good. Espacially for banks, because they can make profit with it. Selling longterm credits with higher interest rates and refinance them short term on the market. Its their business... So it should be now a good idea to invest in bank sectors.
The market is starting to settle on current interest rates. It can be seen that the yield on 3-month government bonds has fallen to -0.03% in recent weeks. This opened the door to further interest rate cuts in the negative range. At present, this danger seems to have passed. Short-term government bond yields are starting to return to normal. This could mean that...
Negative interest pricing has begun. An interesting thing happened in US 3-month government bond yields. For the first time in history, markets have begun to price negative dollar rates. In my previous analyzes I have already drawn attention to this possibility. This has happened today.
The Fed is expecting a negative cut in interest rates. A week ago, I wrote about the Fed cutting the dollar rate to zero. This is exactly what my fractal analysis showed. It is therefore advisable to continue along this path. Current analysis shows that 3-month US government bond yields are ahead of further decline. This predicts a further cut in the dollar...
FED cuts interest rates to zero. There will be no intermediate way. Radical interest rate cuts in the market. If you look at the yields on US 3 month bonds. that it was below 0.22%. The FED open market session on March 18 may have a low 50 basis point cut. Therefore, I expect dollar interest rates to either decrease to -0.5% or 0% in the US Fed.
Mortgage bubble Lehman bankrupcy Stimulus package Obama and etc
Another 25 bps cut in interest rates This analysis predicts a FED 50 bounce cut. The chart shows the yield curve of the two-year US government bond and its future path. The current analysis attempts to predict the next three months' interest forecast. Let's look at the chart. It can be seen that in the shorter term, the market once again ran ahead. It can be seen...
This chart shows the relationship between the 03 M Y on American treasury bonds and S&P 500. It shows a clear relationship during the last two crises and also shows that the downturn has just started.
US03M chart before another plunge. The chart shows the forward rate curve for US 3-month government bonds. I've analyzed this curve many times. It can be seen that the chart makes small movements. Furthermore, it can be seen that the anti-movement ATRs (white rectangle) have a strong pressure on the exchange rate. In the event that the exchange rate falls out of...
The market is expecting another interest rate cut. Construction of the declining double fractal at US03M may begin. This means that the short-term interest rate forecast may fall to 1.25%. These forecasts have been relatively stable so far. It can be seen that the peaks of the exchange rate wave sequence follow the auxiliary axis projected to the moving average...
This chart has recently projected the rate of interest rate cuts very precisely. In case the chart analysis is correct, it predicts an additional 3x FED interest rate cut. This may be a rising factor for the euro. Therefore, I expect the current appreciation of the euro to be the start of a longer process.
A clear pattern is showing -- at least for the two previous recessions -- when looking at the 3-month yield on monthly chart. The long stochastic has given strong indication twice before and is signaling imminent recession again. We'll see how it plays out, but I am more convinced than ever recession is very near and may have already begun.
The market has been tanking since the last Fed meeting, now Powell is hinting at another rate cut in Oct. The rate cut is already priced in now, and they're starting to price in another one for Dec or Jan. I'm beginning to think that Trump wants rate cuts more than he wants a China trade deal since his businesses are all interest rate sensitive, and he's...
3 month yield is still below Fed rate which means the market is still anticipating a rate cut. It would be absolutely ridiculous for the Fed to cut rates when the economy is still growing. Retail sales were good, unemployment numbers are still at the bottom. If the Fed doesn't cut rate or signal one for Oct, expect the market to tank.
I really so no reason for the Fed to cut rates in Sept, considering that the China meeting doesn't happen until Oct and the market is at the top. Wage inflation is starting to creep up as well which will eventually lead to real inflation. Rate cut is already priced in so look for the market to react negatively if they don't get what they've already priced in. ...