The global economy continues to face profound uncertainties in the wake of COVID-19's massive disruptions. For policymakers and business leaders, making sense of divergent signals on jobs, inflation, and growth remains imperative yet challenging. In the United States, inflation pressures appear to be moderately easing after surging to 40-year highs in 2022. The...
Treasury yields ended the week lower, as investors are weighing on a next monetary move of the Fed during next week. FOMC is scheduled for July 26-27th, where the majority of market participants are expecting further increase of interest rates by 25bps. The economy is showing modest signs of slow-down, while some economists are expecting a lagging effect of...
Rate jumps in leg 5, to complete iH&S, and second bullflag. Banks fail en masse as run accelerates, BTFP cant provide enough liquidity and FDIC jumps in using FedNow, which later on gets transitioned into retail CBDC. You will want your money back no? Then take the mark of the beast. By october.
TVC:US10Y Even though most of the macro indicators (alongside the recent CPI data) indicate lower yields forward, the downward trendline from Oct 2022 highs broke out in June 2023, with a successful retest pattern couple of days ago. So, as long the yields stay above the trendline, we could see them rising higher over the coming months.
I expect a pullback from each of the green lines below for higher targets
The US office market is facing challenges, with a decline in the 10-year Treasury yields, and the value of distressed US offices reaching $24.8 billion, surpassing that of malls. This trend indicates a severe challenge in the distressed office market. Distressed offices refer to office buildings facing rising vacancy rates, declining rental income, and financial...
We notice that there is a divergence and that we are in a major correction
Debate over the question whether FED should further increase interest rates or not is still quite active among economists. A Nobel-prise winner and economist Christopher Pissarides is of the opinion that there is no need for the US to further increase interest rates, as noted in an interview with CNBC. Many other influential economists share his opinion. However,...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that has been supporting the price action since May 16. The long-term trend since the October 21 2022 market top has been bearish, guided downwards by a Lower Lows trend-line but since February it has transitioned into a Rectangle. The recent July 07 High was a direct hit at...
If we draw a fib from the high to low of the last leg into the low in yields we can see the current bounce is off the 127 fib. Most often when this is a correction the high comes around 161 (Which would be 7%). However, i find more often when we have a 127 bounce the 161 breaks and the following fibs hit. If this TA norm plays out, it'd imply the FED is far...
US 10Y yield long-term remain uptrend but we look like stick peak cycle. We recommend US10Y yield turn down SMA200 day at 3.70%. US 10Y yield will be a risk of dropping to test the support at 3.30%.
The US10Y turned neutral on the 1D timeframe today (RSI = 51.795, MACD = 0.074, ADX = 33.857) after it got rejected on R1 two days ago. It is likely to see a sharp fall as on the March 2nd rejection, and in that case S1 and S2 won't pose any bullish pressure to the downtrend, nor should the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200, which in the past 12 months haven't had any such...
10yr likely to rest and continue higher. During the cool-off i expect spx to spike 6-7k. Then 10yr to 10%, spx below 2k. Stay safe Good luck
For some time charts were pointing to a potential for US10Y to reach 4% level, which finally occurred during the previous week. Job figures released for June show that average hourly earnings continue to be increased, 0.4% m/m in June or 4.4% on a yearly basis, which might bring inflation further to the higher grounds, which will push FOMC to further increase...
Hi ,,,, us 10 year bond yield break this bullish flag and it could put more pressure on stock market and the shares like TEsla which I am bearish on that ...... the us economy players are going to take the risk off the table be aware of that .... Good luck ...
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us 10 year bond yield break up sideway down channel and above SMA 200 day. We think us 10 year bond yield have go to 5.00-5.25% form 4.00%