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US 20Y yieldUS 20Y yieldUS 20Y yield

US 20Y yield

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US 20Y Yield — Bullish Momentum AheadThe US 20-Year Government Bond Yield is showing a constructive bullish structure, with price action indicating renewed buying interest and strengthening upside momentum. The market continues to hold its bullish structure, suggesting that buyers remain active and are positioning for further upside. From a technical perspective, the setup is supported by continued demand and a favorable market structure. Buyers are stepping in around important areas, keeping the upward momentum intact. Any controlled pullback into demand could provide an opportunity for a favorable risk-to-reward entry. A sustained move above recent resistance would further strengthen the bullish outlook and potentially open the way toward higher targets. The focus remains on buy-side opportunities while the overall structure continues to favor buyers. Overall, the trade idea remains focused on bullish momentum and further upside potential, with Demand & Supply analysis supporting the setup. 📈 Bias: Bullish Setup: Buy Side Focus: Higher Targets
TVC:US20YLong
by asgharphulpoto
End the FedEither tomorrow (Friday) or Early next week, the bond sell-off will continue and yields will press back above 5%. Extremely difficult for the equity markets or crypto to gain any footing while this is happening. Yields going up like this tightens the money supply (credit). Stocks will not find a bottom until the top in yields has been reached. I have no idea where the top will be. What I can tell you is it is not dependent on Oil anymore. That started this fiasco, but the coals in the fire were already hot before oil became a problem. There are many other issues under the surface in our credit system. It is the U.S. bond market that is the problem. We are in the death spiral now of debt. You are about to enter the Great Depression of the 21st Century. Congratulations. (Whistling past the graveyard....) ...Everyone thinks the Fed will come save them. The Fed, doesn't save anyone. Not people anyways. They save banks. Because they were made by banks. For banks. The Fed's job is to keep you working. Work, work, work, little work slaves, you work so hard, but your life doesn't get any easier. All this new technology, but your lives are harder than ever, hmm...that seems strange. It's so...strange isn't it. That no matter what we create or advance. No matter how fast of machines we make to help us, or jets to fly us around the world, amazing technology, a naturally deflationary force, keeps progressing and growing, all you get is more work. If you're lucky. Why is that? In fact, it seems like it's been that way for nearly a century. Technology has progressed so quickly that you can't even fathom what 100 years ago was really like. If technology increases productive output, then why haven't your lives gotten better. Where has all this increased production gone? It's all so strange... Surely with all the computers and machines and solar power and nuclear physics, we can make medicines you couldn't fantasize about 30 years ago to treat the thing that we poisoned you with. Weird. So where did all your labor go? Your production? Certainly not to you. Does your boss have it all? Probably not. Maybe the tax man has it... wait... he's in debt. Oh, actually, my apologies, YOU are in debt. Because it's your labor after all. Your production. The tax man just spends it. Inflation is where it goes. But the Fed will save you. Sure. Right after they crash the entire monetary system on top of your head like a bathroom sink. Then they'll save you. They'll say, "We're sorry all your hard work amounted to nothing. But don't worry. We believe you can still keep going even with nothing. So here, take this barcode, we'll deposit 1,000 U.S.coins in your account each month. Because we care about you. We're not the face sucking alien monster syphoning the blood right out of you. We're not the organization that was formed in a secret meeting of elite bankers on an island where no one could listen in on our plans to establish control of you. No.... that would be weird.... The tv told you didn't it? You can't say things like that. You'll upset the other slaves. You've got to think like everyone else, remember? Now go back to work, and watch your tv, and play your games, and let us worry about the direction of your country and your leaders. Here...we'll make it easy for you. We'll help fund a 2-party system so you just pick heads or tails. Then go back to work, and let us direct them. The catch is it doesn't matter who you pick! Isn't that great? Oh, but you stress about it each time don't you. Such a hard choice. Getting punched in the mouth or the gut. We've been doing such a great job, haven't we? We do it all for you. We definitely don't steal your production and create inflation only to enrich ourselves. No... you see it's just, necessary, this inflation well.. because it encourages investment! That's it! Yeah.. I mean who would buy a stock if there wasn't inflation? Or a new tv? Or game? Why, if there wasn't inflation you might all want to save your money, or you might not be such a hard worker! If we didn't have inflation, my goodness, your house wouldn't be a nice little nest egg that you can't leave and that young people can't afford. All the house prices might just stay the same or even go down as materials become easier to produce with all this technology. We wouldn't want that. So don't worry. Andrew Jackson was a terrible person after all. A wicked, cruel, awful man. Did you hear of all his crimes? Lol. Good. Yes, no other president of these United States has ever done something so terrible. Surely not. And surely there was no rational reason for what he did at the time. He didn't have any noteworthy ideas after all. He was just a murderous villain surely. So don't read about him. It would be a waste of your time to learn more about him. Because he was not a good slave. But, You, are my favorite.
TVC:US20YLong
by MonetaryRebel
7
Bond Bulls Smell Blood: 20-Year Yields Likely to Fall🧩 Fundamental Bear Case for 20-Year Yields 1. Recession Risk and Slowing Growth Leading economic indicators (e.g., ISM Manufacturing, Conference Board LEI) continue to suggest softening demand across key sectors. A recession or significant slowdown would drive capital into long-duration Treasuries, causing yields to fall as bond prices rise. Historically, 20-year yields fall 200–300bps from cycle peaks during recessions. With yields near 5%, there is ample downside room. 2. Federal Reserve Policy Pivot The Fed’s hiking cycle appears to be at or near its terminal point. Rate cuts in 2025 are increasingly priced in, especially as inflation moderates. If inflation continues to decelerate toward the Fed’s 2% target while growth slows, the Fed may be forced to ease sooner or more aggressively than expected. Long-duration bonds, including the 20Y, are highly sensitive to forward rate expectations and would benefit from a dovish pivot. 3. Disinflationary Trends Core inflation metrics (e.g., Core PCE, Core CPI) are in year-over-year decline. Key disinflationary forces: Wage pressures have eased as labor markets normalize. Housing costs, which lag in CPI data, are projected to fall further. Supply chain normalization continues post-COVID. These factors reduce the need for elevated long-term yields, especially with inflation expectations anchored. 4. Supply-Demand Dynamics Favor Treasuries Despite large Treasury issuance, global demand remains strong: Foreign buyers (e.g., Japan, EU) seek higher yields as their home rates remain low or negative. U.S. institutions (pensions, insurance funds) are rebalancing into risk-free long bonds amid equity volatility. A risk-off rotation or broader de-leveraging cycle would only accelerate this demand. 🔍 Technical Summary Rising wedge pattern is nearing a potential breakdown — a bearish structure signaling exhaustion. Price is failing to reclaim the previous uptrend channel, now acting as resistance. A completed harmonic AB=CD pattern near recent highs suggests a mean-reverting move could be imminent. Closest technical targets include: 4.33% (23.6% Fib) 3.68% (38.2% Fib) Possibly even 3.16% (50% retracement) over the next 6–12 months if macro weakness persists. 📌 Bottom Line The combination of: Cooling inflation A Fed pivot on the horizon Rising recession risk And technical exhaustion signals Supports a bearish outlook for 20-year yields, meaning bond prices (especially long-duration instruments like TMF or TLT) could appreciate meaningfully from here.
TVC:US20YShort
by JoshuaDanford
Another great opportunity to work with U.S. T-BondsAnother great opportunity to work with U.S. government debt in the short term. We have all noticed that after the 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the reaction of the fixed income markets was mixed. Geopolitical and domestic issues did not allow institutional investors to act freely, leading to a reverse effect. Currently, another 50 basis point cut is expected, and the treasury curve is in a flattening phase. Yields have risen again. This is exactly what we call a great opportunity to re-enter the markets with 6-12 month expectations. #UBT #TLT #UST #US20Y #US30Y
TVC:US20YLong
by gorgevorgian
4
20 year bond yields entering Rotation DownwardAnother TLT play is about to start. The 20 year bond yields are rejecting off the channels resistance and will likely move back down to the 200 mda and maybe the bottom of the 4 months upward channel. TLT will respond inversely to this. I have been playing TMV and TMF back and forth since November. I'm up 70% over that time. I'll will likely buy into TMF tomorrow if the machines drop the 20 year off of the resistance. If so, then I'll be ready to dump at the 200mda if we look like we will reject off of it. If the 20 year keeps bumping sideways off the top of the 4 month channel - then I'll be ready to buy into TMV once it breaks out above it.
TVC:US20YShort
by grumpa06
1
Understanding Treasury Yields And Govt BondsUnderstanding yield curve correlations is essential for traders and investors seeking diversification and hedging opportunities across forex, indices, and commodity markets. The yield curve, a graphical representation of bond yields across different maturities, provides valuable insights into interest rate expectations, economic conditions, and market sentiment. 1️⃣ Understanding Treasury Yields and Bonds: Treasury yields represent the interest rates on government-issued bonds with varying maturities, ranging from short-term Treasury bills to long-term Treasury bonds. Bond prices and yields have an inverse relationship: as bond prices rise, yields fall, and vice versa. The yield curve plots these yields against bond maturities, typically ranging from one month to 30 years. Understanding the shape and dynamics of the yield curve is crucial for assessing the market's expectations for future interest rates and economic growth. 2️⃣ Interpreting the Yield Curve: The yield curve can take various shapes, including normal, inverted, and flat. A normal yield curve slopes upward, indicating higher yields for longer-maturity bonds, which is typically associated with expectations of economic expansion. An inverted yield curve, on the other hand, slopes downward, indicating lower yields for longer-maturity bonds, which may signal expectations of economic recession. A flat yield curve suggests little difference in yields across different maturities and may indicate uncertainty or impending market changes. 3️⃣ Yield Curve Correlations Across Markets: Yield curve correlations can offer valuable insights into market relationships and potential diversification opportunities. For example, correlations between the yield curve and forex markets may indicate the impact of interest rate differentials on currency valuations. Similarly, correlations between the yield curve and commodity prices may reflect expectations for inflation and economic growth. By analyzing these correlations, you can identify hedging opportunities and mitigate risks across different asset classes. 4️⃣ Identifying Diversification Opportunities: Diversification involves spreading investments across different asset classes to reduce overall portfolio risk. Yield curve correlations can help identify assets with low or negative correlations, offering diversification benefits. For example, if the yield curve is positively correlated with stock market indices, you may seek to diversify your portfolios by allocating funds to assets with negative or uncorrelated returns, such as gold or government bonds. 5️⃣ Utilizing Hedging Strategies: Hedging involves taking positions to offset potential losses in existing investments. Yield curve correlations can inform hedging strategies by identifying assets that move in opposite directions under certain market conditions. For instance, if the yield curve is inversely correlated with commodity prices, traders may hedge their commodity positions by taking long positions in treasury bonds or short positions in currency pairs correlated with the yield curve. 6️⃣ Yield Curve and Forex Markets: For example, consider a scenario where the yield curve steepens, indicating expectations of rising interest rates and economic growth. In this case, currency pairs with higher interest rate differentials may appreciate relative to those with lower differentials. Traders may capitalize on this by buying currencies with higher yields and selling currencies with lower yields, taking advantage of yield curve correlations to profit from interest rate differentials. 7️⃣ Yield Curve and Commodity Markets: Alternatively, suppose the yield curve flattens, signaling uncertainty or expectations of economic slowdown. In this scenario, commodities sensitive to economic growth, such as industrial metals or crude oil, may experience downward pressure on prices. Traders may hedge their commodity exposure by taking long positions in treasury bonds, which tend to benefit from safe-haven demand during periods of economic uncertainty. Yield curve correlations provide valuable insights into diversification and hedging opportunities across forex, indices, and commodity markets. By understanding the dynamics of the yield curve and its correlations with different asset classes, traders and investors can optimize their trading and investment strategies to manage risk and capitalize on market trends.
TVC:US20Y
by WillSebastian