Interest rate up to at least 6.5% in 2023, why?The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22.
At what level will he consider an interest rate cut?
He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut.
Market consensus for CPI to range between 5% to 8..9% for this year. If this is true, the Fed is likely to continue to hike the rate moderately at 0.25% in each meeting just to bring inflation down.
I am seeing this as the best case scenario.
Today’s content:
Strategy in an inflationary environment:
i. Commodity – Buy them
ii. Stock market – Trade them
Can inflation be hedged and can we trade into the interest rate uptrend?
CME Micro 30 Year Yield Futures
Minimum fluctuation
0.001 point = $1
0.01 point = $10
0.1 point = $100
1 point = $1,000
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