Idea for Macro:
- Credit Cycle turned down from top of Risk Range.
- Global Credit Impulse negative, US Systemic Liquidity Flows turning down, Fed Balance Sheet 5yr avg. at top of risk range.
- Demand-push Inflation at top of risk range, in 40 year downtrend.
- Implied Volatility vs. Realized Volatility reaching a critical level.
- PC ratio reaching low levels...
This chart shows three times during the past three decades in which the yield curve inverts. An inversion is when the rate of a shorter term debt security is higher than the rate of a longer term debt security. This is identified on this chart in 2000, 2006, 2019.
Treasury Debt Securities:
Bill; less than one year to maturity at issue.
Note; greater than one year...
The problem that we believe to be fundamental is this: will it be possible to pass on the rise in the prices of raw materials to the final consumer? Or will we have a generalized rise in prices with a stagnant economy? Which will lead us to stagflation. The advantage of Treasuries is that they pay you to wait.
The market lately has been very unstable to say the least and has been willing to jump onto any boat it can in order to avoid inflation, However the price action we are seeing on the 30 YR seems to indicate that Inflation fears are overblown and that the Value if the Dollar index will likely remain stable.
While looking through the charts i noticed that there...
This is not a prediction. It's meant to be educational but it's an analysis.
Loads of traders are unaware of what the Bond markets mean. This post can't be a full exploration as it's a massive topic. Some self-driven independent study is required. I'll give a few snippets of what I understand in the form of a story.
The Bond Market (aka Treasuries) is the...
This is the U.S. Government Bond 30Y Yield from 1988 until today. I chose this hyper long-term chart on the 1M (monthly) time-frame as with bonds being the talk of the month as for reasons that may move stocks, Gold etc lower, I wanted to get a good understanding of what the real long-term picture is.
This illustrates a clear and standard Channel Down. I have...
Hoping for 10y yield to retreat relative to 30y yield, which would usher more strength and stability. Seems contingent on a sub 1.5 10y yield. The falling wedge gives me a lot of hope despite a false breakout near the end of January.
In short, we don't think so.
In the chart above, you're seeing the 10y30y spread and the 10y yield.
The 10s30s is a barometer of the inflation risk premium.
And quite frankly, the market isn't buying that inflation will be sustained.
Yes, the 10y yield is indicating perhaps to many that there is some kind of inflation risk, but from the Macrodesiac view, all...
Before I begin, bonds are warning of something monstrous, they are signaling inflation and freezes everywhere. With that said, I'm glad to see some buying has happened over the last week or so. Look, liquidity is dead, the FED is our new liquidity. Inter and intra bank lending is also dead. so who is buying bonds? I'm not holding bonds, are you? I want to know, I...
The US30Y yield has only gone in one direction for the last 30+ years, down.
Using the TradingView monthly price history, the US30Y yield peaked in Oct 1987 at 10.234%.
Every successive period has seen lower highs on the US30Y yield. The most recent peak in Oct 2018 was at 3.466%.
Using Fibonacci analysis, the successively lower highs from the Oct'87 peak have...
