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US30Y Time for bond yields to reverse

Short
TVC:US30Y   United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield
This is the U.S. Government Bond 30Y Yield from 1988 until today. I chose this hyper long-term chart on the 1M (monthly) time-frame as with bonds being the talk of the month as for reasons that may move stocks, Gold etc lower, I wanted to get a good understanding of what the real long-term picture is.

This illustrates a clear and standard Channel Down. I have applied the Fibonacci levels on it. As you see the price is now testing the 0.618 retracement level, which is exactly on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). The chart clearly shows that the MA50 and the MA100 (green trend-line have been acting as a Sell Zone since at least 1995 (where we can measure). We can see that only once over these decades did the price (marginally) break the 0.786 Fib (October/ November 2018). On all rejections within the MA50/100 Sell Zone, the price always pulled back to at least the 0.236 Fibonacci level.

That means that the upside is limited on the US30Y and we will most likely start seeing a bearish reversal soon.



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Comments

What an absolutely laughable investment. "They" just printed another 1.9 Trillion so called "dollars" for cold and flu season, & over 7 Trillion last year.. Can someone explain to me who in their right mind would find a 2% yield enticing, on an assent that will most definitely top 10% inflation this year...?
+2 Reply
@ejlouieb, 'They' started printing in 2008
Reply
BMLemon ejlouieb
@ejlouieb, When those high yields destroy the market, rates will crash to zero. Everyone will wish they where holding positive yielding debt. Banks are buying bonds.
Reply
ejlouieb BMLemon
@BMLemon, Then why wouldn't you just buy stable coins & get 7-10% yield on any DeFi platform? Even the DAI savings rate is set at 2% through computer code. Not some airy fairly world of Oligarchs & bankster thieves inflating our future away with debt slavery.
Reply
BMLemon ejlouieb
@ejlouieb, Because I have no faith in legitimacy of those stable coins nor those defi platforms. That's just me though.
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Good analysis, if I may, pay special attention to the inverse head and shoulders pattern the chart is potentially completing. Typically a sign of trend reversal, and with inflation knocking on the door, we could easily see the 30 break this 30 year trend.
+1 Reply
It should be pointed out that there has never been more money stacked short against US bonds. When all that gets unwound and those hedge funds have to buy back those bonds that the Fed has been gobbling up, it's going to completely ruin everything.
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Nice one buddy
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Thanks for sharing 🎯πŸ₯‚
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30 Yrs...wow!

It is incredible to see a clear descending ranging pattern over such a long period of time.
Extremely enlightening chart. Your studies are the best. Please keep them coming.
Thank you very much.

How do you expect lower 30 years yields to impact shorter term yields, let's say the current yearly yields?
Reply