On a successful test of the lower Cost Basis line I will be adding longs. The current bounce-off is positiv, but I want see a successful retrace test of this level.
A great majority of holders in DOGE have breakeven points so low that that none of the volatility over the 3 months has really impacted them. About 10% of the market or less have been trading at current price ranges and herein lies the issue with the current cost basis for swing traders now being tested ie break even point. If this point breaks...then expect...
Adam's BTC cost-basis illustrates the respective average cost basis between three different groups - miners, swing traders and short term or novice trades - each group having different investment horizons, average tenure in the market, costs basis and break even points. Similarly to my prior conversation regarding BTC and it's cost basis, we see a similar but...
Adam's DOGE Coin cost-basis illustrates the respective average cost basis between three different groups - miners, swing traders and short term or novice trades - each group having different investment horizons, average tenure in the market, costs basis and break even points. Similarly to my prior conversation regarding BTC and it's cost basis, we see a similar...
I am still long oil. Mixed messages - but I don't have a sell signal, and I don't have indication of a market sell off as indicated by my crash monitor. There are offsetting data: inventory builds OPEC output volume increases Re-opening economies (impact from general wage growth) Potential upside from the US infrastructure Bill Increased in gasoline prices ...
Interconnected economies, US off risk -> ASX 200 off risk. Don't believe me? SP500 crash model aligns nicely to ASX off risk! So be patient...
1000% returns, draw down into consolidation range...conclusion "crypto is dead"..commonsense conclusion??🤣🤣 Some aspect of crypto volatility is NOT a market crashing..its a function of wallet transfers and exchange inefficiencies, particularly liquidity provisioning inefficiencies! Put everything into perspective, manage bet size and you won't have a problem 😇
I am not getting burned with roll premium..just wait..the gains are potentially massive..and quick!
Patience is the key...patient ape = rich ape 😂
An ape spends $100 a month on lotto tickets or goes long AMC....I know which one will eventually make money! Risk management is not about avoiding risk..it's about understanding differential risks and making sound bets...with the right trade size! But like all games you need to know its coming to an end and what new game is out there😁
Three enormous bull runs...greater than exponential growth...periods of consolidation...what's the problem? The support areas are easy to see..the whole world can see them. #CurbTheNoob
BTC and other cryptos are a long market. Yes- lots of downside action but only in context to the massive bull runs previously experienced. Unless BTC breaks the lower support line and fails to break back out of the range..the market is still long! Yes..there are thousand opportunities to trade short, scalp and arb...but in a position trading sense, we are still...
1. Indicator Note: Just waiting for my Market Crash Indicator indicate a high probability crash scenario before I start to exit longs and swing trade to the down side. 2. Discussion Currently, the US market has been supported by fiscal support, as means of aiding recovery from COVID-19. Several States now withdrawing Federal support! As a side note: if $300...
Currently, the US market has been supported by fiscal support, as means of aiding recovery from COVID-19. Several States now withdrawing Federal support! As a side note: if $300 week social welfare support is so generous it stops many from working, there's a fundamental problem with the US wage structure! In any case, my Market Crash indicator is still...
Waiting for the signal to spike trade. There's no FOMO with roll premium, but once a signal is generated a high probability volatility trade to the long side is identified. No FOMO - just discipline here.
Buy on pull backs ..sell into tweet inspired rallies.. The tweet impulse trade seems still be live and well. Just don't get jammed at the top of a rally..it's still a greater fool trade.
Still a contango market. Growth up...vol down = long SPY etc. You really need a news event to kick off a reversal spike otherwise roll premium is a killer.
FED is setting low rates, its a short market. So dont buy 'on price'. Weekly charts shows a pretty clear setup. I am not personally shorting, but that is a matter of capital placement including returns in crypto.