Hi All, A quick update on Silver (Gold is similar). I am waiting for one last push to the new low, possibly 12.80 (1000-1020 for Gold), then I expect a rally to start which will bring us to above 27 (1400+ for Gold). I regard those two as the most important trade for H1'16. I guess the low in Silver and Gold will happen at the same time as the new low in EUR will...
Hi All, the markets seem to be doing the right thing this New Year eve, so let them do their job. It was a great year, and extremely exciting things are still ahead in 2016. Congrats too all. Here's a bonus chart for the year end.
Hi All, just wanted to point you attention to a very similar (so far) corrective pattern that we observe in SPX in Aug and right now. It's on the chart. So far the Dec variant follows the Aug script to the letter. If all goes well, we still have one extra push today and tomorrow, to approx 2085-2090, and then this should be over, the C wave down should start, 1730...
Hi All, Here's an update on SPX development. The expanding leading diagonal is intact and is developing slowly but steadily. If my analysis is correct we should by now have entered ithe final 5th wave of the decline, specifically it's C-part where the most interesting stuff should happen. If all is right, the decline should continue during the remaining two weeks...
Hi All, What many perceived as a reversal in EUR may not be what it seems. I still view the advance as a very weak structure, which is supposed to be deeply or fully retraced before a real reversal occurs. Details are on the chart.
Good morning, I was recently asked a question how to see a difference between an X wave and a trend continuation. For instance, with the multi-month decline in Gold almost complete, how do we know that the advance out of the lows that will start in a few days will still be part of a correction? A possible answer to this - the full correction needs to demonstrate...
Those who live in the RUR world and trade in dollars will have a good opportunity to stock up some RURs during the last week of this year because the rouble will be quite cheap, and it will become more expensive later, so those of you who pay taxes in RUR, it could be a good idea to get a few RURs upfront, put them in a bank at a few % interest for half a year,...
Because we now have a good old DXY ticker in TradingView, I decided to update its labelling and present this to you for your viewing pleasure. In 2008 we started a flat correction setup, currently running its purple (C) wave, completing wave (3) within it. Still a couple of weeks to go before a massive weakening in the dollar starts. Until then, more weakness in...
Hi All, One thing that always scares me in wave analysis is when you think that "it goes exactly as planned". Because the moment you think that, the market almost always pulls a really unexpected twist. Yet, this is exactly the thought I have when I look at Crude. So, be warned. Crude is still going down, and it will probably take another week or two for it to...
Hi All, I'm a big fan of MSFT stock as its wave structure reflects the essence of the whole economy. The wave structure of the advance looks very complete and it does look like a very shy-at-first decline is slowly making its way. SPX is doing the same, and its MSFT that gives me the most confidence that SPX is reversing too. At some point the question will rise...
Hi Folks, Just a quick update on Crude: we are not done falling yet. By far. Ending diagonals may well break and significantly overshoot the channel, so this is exactly what we observe in Crude these days. Waves 1-2-3-4 done, wave 5 incomplete, even A in 5 is incomplete. So expect much more weakness in Crude and associated currencies over the course of this and...
Hi All, This is my view on the latest development in SPX. I suspect we again are dealing with a leading expanding diagonal, trying to pave its way down, breaking through a wall of massive optimism. The role of a leading diagonal is to resist the trend change to the latest possible stage. Waves 1-2-3 are viewed by the market as a mere correction and are deeply...
Good morning, MSFT is the stock that offers us a glimpse on our future with a stunning degree of clarity. What I see on this monthly chart is a gorgeous flat correction, which has completed its red A wave, now completing its red B wave, stopping right at the required level of 0.886 w(A) retracement, and is supposed to head down in a few days together with SPX....
Hi All, I like to look at individual stocks in order to get some insights on index trends. AAPL is a good indicator of the mood of the crowd due to its heavy market cap. If AAPL goes up or down, SPX or NDX should most likely do the same. AAPL in my view is running a descending expanding leading diagonal, similar to SPX. The wave count is shown on the chart. The...
Hi All, Given the size of the recent upswing in Crude I do believe we are dealing with w4 of the ending diagonal, and this wave is to be finished early next week. I expect therefore more decline in Crude in w5 and in SPX of course (Crude will go down together with SPX). The comparison of SPX vs Crude in Aug showed that SPX made its largest decline during w5 of...
I'm going to be stubborn on this case until we see the whole set of waves complete. I do believe we are running a descending expanded leading diagonal, which started at the top of May 2015 and is still being traced out. We are about to complete wave 4 which is a double zigzag, with a minor subwave 5 missing. I don't expect new tops in SPX but I expect us to...
The accumulation wedge is broken, now we need to achieve the target for w5 in the 74-80 RUR/USD range.
Hi All, Here's my view on the development of USDOLLAR. I expect USDOLLAR to go up to as high as 12365 in the next month or so and then be substantially retraced back, possibly in the lower 11000. The whole structure looks like an expanded flat correction and there's plenty of room within the Elliott channel to be filled with green and red bars. So I expect a lot...