Up until a few days ago I believed oil had a chance of getting back down to 75-95$. It can still get all the way down there, but for the price to get there it would need traditional markets to crash badly. The current production is too low, the underinvestment in production is massive and the oil industry isn't incentivized to drill for new wells. At the same time...
Copper bounced very hard off the Yearly Pivot, however it doesn't look ready for a new sustainable rally. Maybe this bounce had something to do with a fundamental catalyst, but nothing to do with the bull market resuming. To me the market is in a very clear distribution phase, and it simply bounced after taking out several major lows. Essentially this is a short...
Despite the Russia-Ukraine war, despite inflation being at record highs, the DXY making a new high since 2015-2016, the bond market being in its largest bear market and with equities down 20-30%, the VIX hasn't really spiked yet. So far volatility has been contained and every time the VIX would get overbought at 35 or above, it would slowly get back down. However...
So far this correction on the S&P has been extremely orderly and makes a lot of sense. A lot of things are very similar to the 2018 correction, especially when it comes to how the market has moved. The key differences in the current environment are that the Fed hasn't raised rates as much, inflation is a lot higher, debt is a lower higher, the economy is in a...
All 3 major US indices hit major key levels and bounced nicely. The S&P500 swept several lows and formed a nice bottom. It also hit the S3 Monthly pivot and has now reclaimed the S1 Yearly pivot, and is looking fairly strong. The Nasdaq 100 swept the November low, right before the huge rally begun, and partially filled a large gap on NDX/QQQ. The Russell 2000 hit...
The Corporate bond market got extremely oversold and it bounced without the Fed having to pivot. Essentially the market got to 2013-2018 levels, and bounced nicely at the old support. But we still don't know whether the bottom is in or now, as there are more questions that need to be answered, like: Does the market expect the Fed to reverse course soon? Does the...
Hello everyone! As you've already noticed from the title, I don't believe EURUSD has bottomed. Yesterday I shared an idea about why I think the DXY hasn't topped either, and as the DXY mostly consists of EUR, it is impossible for me to think that the USD won't strengthen vs the EUR. However in the short term EURUSD could go higher, and I could even see it go up to...
Hello everyone! From today I will start sharing analysis on all sorts of markets, that will be shorter than usual and focused only on a specific pair/topic. Rather than trying to put everything together like I used to in the past, I will try to stay on point and condense the information. That's because readers weren't really going through everything as it was too...
Bitcoin is stuck in a range. On the one hand it could collapse lower, especially if stocks crash, but on the other hand it is still holding very well and there is hope. Here I’d like to explain a bullish fractal I am looking at and the market keeps behaving in a certain way. The fractal is pretty simple and occurred at the bottom. In my opinion the market as a...
In my previous analysis I went deep into a lot of the fundamentals of what is going in stock markets in the current environment. At the moment the main theme is that the Fed will keep on hiking until the market crashes or something else breaks in the financial system. It is unknown how much time will it take for something to break, but it is probably going to...
As inflation prints are coming hotter and hotter, and the bond market keeps tumbling lower, there is a lot of debate on whether the stock market remains a good ‘hedge’ or ‘bet’ under these conditions. Well, this isn’t an easy debate and there are no easy answers, but in this analysis, I will try to outline certain important things I am looking at. I will also...
As you can see on the main chart, 10y bond yields have broken above their downwards channel and are now back at their 2013-2018 highs. Based on technical analysis we don't have a confirmation that the trend has fully reversed until we get a close above 3.2%, but we are pretty close to breaking above that level too. Now we aren't only seeing the 10y yields rise, as...
Since the early 2000s commodities have had a major boom, a major bust and another boom which began in April 2020. The current boom isn't caused by the world going into the right direction and economies are booming, but rather we have major issues in the production of commodities. Globalization led to a massive economic boom post WW2, a trend that slowly started...
In this current environment it is very clear that some countries will be able to tackle this crisis a lot better than others, and therefore their currencies could perform a lot better. We'll start with developed market currencies and then move to emerging market currencies. Won't show charts on each currency, but will try to show the best and simply mention some...
Many people consider gold as an inflation hedge, but the truth is that Gold in the present day is more of hedge against policy errors or catastrophic scenarios in broadly. It is more like insurance which could also appreciate in a scenario where real rates are falling. In case for whatever reason the financial system breaks, then gold is probably one of the best...
These are my comments from some conversations I had and I hope you like it :) It is a weird environment overall, as the market is pretty cheap, the derivatives markets are fairly well balance, on chain data & stablecoins paint a bullish picture for crypto... but in terms of TA and the overall psychology of the market, getting to anywhere between 20-28k &...
Hello everyone! In this idea we'll talk about the current macro environment and give updates on the most important markets. Although I am not a political analyst and definitely not an expert on the Russia/Ukraine conflict I need to start from there, as the situation seems to be getting worse by the day. For now, there is no clarity as to what will happen next,...
Part 6 Hello everybody! Hope you have read the other 5 parts of our analysis so far. It took us a bit longer to put out the final part to include the altcoin market as well, but here it is! We won't include Bitcoin as we did that in part 5 and our analysis is already playing out. The bounce both in stocks and the crypto markets has played in ways that we've...