Captainsmugglebutt

Captainsmugglebutt

So really, it goes without saying TSLA could go either way here. If it continues upwards and breaks the over $900 high it established in trading on the 4th, then all bets are off and $1100 is on the table. What I think is more likely is an eventual retracement to probably $620-$650 a share in late February, which would take place over several trading days and...

Captainsmugglebutt

In the upcoming days I'm confident we will see a continued rally in the S&P off of the news that Mr. Trump has solved "the problem" of the Mexico tariffs. While trying to remain as unbiased as possible, it is becoming more and more apparent that the current market news cycle could legitimately be subject to manipulation by Trump's continued belief that a strong...

Captainsmugglebutt

ETHs price activity since mid December 2018 has signified a break from the major downtrend we saw off of ETHs ATH and subsequent rapid depreciation. ETH has since then enjoyed a very strong uptrend with growing volume and bullish price activity. Now I believe ETH is set-up to show a repeat of the bullish activity in spring to early summer of 2017, which ETH saw...

Captainsmugglebutt Updated 

Ahoy there mateys! Let's dive right in. TSLA fundamentals are arguably weak, the EV market is becoming more and more competitive. We're seeing strong entry into this market from the likes of Volvo, BMW and now even Porsche has a nice EV coming. We can also see demand softening for TSLA clearly evidenced by recent price drops on the vehicles. In a period of...

Captainsmugglebutt Updated 

Fully formed head and shoulders patterns on the daily chart. The neckline was just recently broken as the 50 MA dropped below the 100 MA and is headed towards the 200 right now. We can also see bearish divergence forming on a downwards MACD cross. Stochastic RSI cross downwards as well. The price itself breached the 200 MA level of $175 as well. Looking super...

Captainsmugglebutt Updated 

The AMD chart has a few key things that caught my attention and I figured was worth sharing. Charting a fibonacci retracement from our absolute peak in September 2018, and the subsequent October 30th and December 26th lows, we can see some key levels for AMD stock. We can clearly see that AMD has strong support in the $16-17 price range, with the two reversals...

Captainsmugglebutt Updated 

The current uptrend before the ETH hardfork update seems to have been rejected off of 100 MA resistance, the lighter green line. The support line from the start of this rally, sub 85, that was held at 113 off some sell pressure, has also clearly been broken (white line). Looking at the fib extension for a 50% pullback and the 50 MA as potential support for a...

Captainsmugglebutt

Ahoy mates! From a long term oriented view the S&P seems to have confirmed the start of a downtrend with pretty significant selling volume . We have cleared the 14 EMA support and it looks like we are headed to test the 50 EMA that is currently sitting on 236.12 for SPY . The EMA is definitely trending near the 24% fib pullback line of 240, 2400 would give the...

Captainsmugglebutt

I have updated my most recently published analysis of ETH price movements. The descending triangle pattern is still valid and these most recent pumps have added further data points to confirm this trend. The 100 ema appears to be nearly impossible resistance for the bulls. Shorts at the 100 ema or the upperbound of the triangle have great potential. Targeting...

Captainsmugglebutt Updated 

ETH is back at it again. The small relief rallies we have seen off of the massive drop, all the way down to the low $80s, have started to become confirmation points for forming an upper bound of yet another descending triangle pattern. As you can tell in the chart, every rally has been stuffed off of the 100 ema (orange line), and while the bulls have mustered...

Captainsmugglebutt

While ETH has seen a couple relief rallies in the past week, it doesn't appear to be enough to combat the selling pressure and the lack of buyers in this market. Even with this most recent pump ETH couldn't muster enough buying volume to break out of this downtrend, and instead seems to have posted another lower high for a large descending triangle that can be...

Captainsmugglebutt

Ahoy mateys, Yesterday I published a chart looking at ETH dropping to $100 from a descending triangle pattern that I saw forming. I must admit my focus was on too narrow of a timeline, a triangle did form and did (slightly) breakout but my 30 minute interval chart did not do the best job at putting a more accurate timeline. Regardless, my suggested entries of...

Captainsmugglebutt Updated 

Ethereum is very clearly in the middle of a break-out of a large descending triangle bearish continuation pattern. This large descending triangle had been forming for the past two months, charted off of ETH's last low before this breakout that occurred on Sept 12th (this low was the result of a breakout on another descending triangle that started forming mid...

Captainsmugglebutt Updated 

ETH has definitely broken out of the channel that I charted almost a day ago. From a long term view ETH has also a smashed through some very important points of support on the descending triangle and then fully broke out. ETH is losing support quickly. Every green candle since the breakout has had less and less volume behind it. ETH is definitively going...

Captainsmugglebutt

Ahoy there! Ethereum has formed multiple tops since its original breakout. It is clear that the 180-181 range has now become resistance for ETH. I believe that we will be testing the 180 range once more in the next two hours and then from there falling back to at least 174-175. If it continues below the lower bound of the channel then 165 is a strong possibility....

Captainsmugglebutt Updated 

Currently in this trade. Shorting to $211-$212 then backing out and watching from there. ETH bounced off both the upper bound of the descending triangle and the 38% on the fib retracement. I see very strong potential for ETH to continue down to the 50% on the fib and then we will see if it can come back or not. Stay tuned.

Captainsmugglebutt

If you browse my posting history it is clear that I have been bearish on ETH since I've began publishing ideas on Trading View. I have been bearish for even longer than I've been published here. Overall I see a lot of fundamental issues with ETH, the project and the idea of a decentralized blockchain actually seeing widespread adoption. From my research and...

Captainsmugglebutt Updated 

I am writing an update to my most recent idea posted, the ETH-USD Continued Decline off of a Bear Flag formation following the descending triangle trade; While I still believe this trade has potential to be a solid short position, I decided to take a step back off of the 30 minute and look at the 1hr movement relative to my proposed pattern. I jumped in and...