ChristopherCarrollSmith

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Last week I put up a post titled "HPE sentiment may change for the better," but the post got blocked because I had a link in there that the mods felt constituted advertising. Well, HPE sentiment has begun to change for the better, as I predicted, so I think this is worth an update and repost with the offending link removed. I track metrics of both value and...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Buying any upward Nasdaq cross of 50 RSI and shorting any downward cross has been highly effective since January 2019. It returned 89.42%, vs. 75.35% to buy and hold for the same period. The four errors over the period each delivered a loss of less than 1.5%. Perhaps significant, then, that we've now crossed below 50. (However, past performance is no guarantee of...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

I don't actually like Gilead Sciences for a long-term buy and hold, because its earnings have been in a long-term downtrend. There's a case to be made for a swing trade, however. Gilead is now sitting on trend line support in a fairly high-volume range. It's about 25% below its median forward P/E and forward P/S for the last three years. It has been selling off on...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Allstate is one of my top picks in terms of both value and sentiment. In terms of technicals, it's a classic potential trend line breakout play. Value After a significant selloff this year, Allstate is still trading near the bottom of its 3-year valuation range in P/E, P/S, and P/D terms. The company is financially healthy, with a 78/100 score for financial...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

CVS is pulling back in sympathy with Walgreens after WBA earnings were a dud. However, the adverse impact on Walgreens sales was "almost entirely from the company's non-U.S. businesses," according to the company's report. CVS operates almost exclusively in the United States, with 9,750 US locations and just 150 internationally. This suggests that CVS should be...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

I've been holding Merck since its big dip to $76 back in June. At the time I set a price target of $82: However, I didn't sell at $82 and have continued to hold the stock due to strong fundamentals, technicals, news, and sentiment. Merck has positive earnings and sales growth, with PEG ratio of 1.7 and PSG ratio of 2.3. It has a nice dividend yield at 2.9%, a...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

In a recent post, I showed the strong correlation between inverted real bond yields and gold and silver: The hot inflation data yesterday and today drove nominal bond yields sharply higher. Bond investors demand higher yields when inflation is hot, which is why nominal yields rose. The rise in nominal yields broke a trend line. Here is the trend line break on...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

I've been buying long-term (2022) calls on Nokia, and they're performing very well this past week. The good news for Nokia has kept rolling in throughout this coronavirus downturn, and Nokia announced today that it has declared a total of 3,000 patents related to 5g. Last year it looked like Nokia was falling behind in the 5g race, but ever since it suspended its...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

GM has been a company in decline for many years, and the coronavirus hasn't helped matters. Over the last three years, EPS shrank about 8.5% annually and SPS about 2% annually. The coronavirus caused GM to suspend its dividend, which at over 6% was the main reason for owning the stock. GM's stock price tanked hard, and I have to say-- based on current consensus...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

This chart shows the price movement of gold and silver vs. real 10-year treasury bond yields, which are now at nearly -1%. As you can see, gold has a *very* strong inverse correlation with real 10-year bond yields. Silver is correlated too, but it has long periods of under- or out-performance vs. gold. One way to play this is to wait for silver to get far away...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

HPQ recently broke out of a triangle to the upside. Analyst sentiment is bullish, with HPQ earning an 8.9/10 Equity Starmine Summary Score. Short-dated options positioning on HPQ are extremely bullish-- more bullish than any other security I've recently looked at. The news environment has been relatively positive, with a new suite of remote work product offerings...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Biogen today reported a huge earning beat, but disappointing guidance for the rest of the year. When you crunch the numbers, the midpoint of Biogen's guidance range for 2H 2020 came in slightly below Street consensus for both earnings and revenues. Biogen has a reasonable, but not great valuation, with forward PEG of 3.78 and forward PSG of 1.27. It's currently...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

First of all, I want to acknowledge that I am indebted for this idea to Raoul Pal and the fine folks at Global Macro Investor and Real Vision Group. I personally know just enough about finance to be dangerous, but these guys know their stuff and I stand on their shoulders, especially in relation to Forex. The U.S. dollar index is now *very* close to a key...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Abbvie's volume has slackened somewhat after its recent triangle breakout, and it has broken its steep upward trendline. We may see a small correction late this month as Abbvie pulls back toward triangle top. However, if healthcare and pharmaceutical sector earnings continue to deliver this month (as they have so far), then Abbvie should get some buying volume...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

On its earnings report today, Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings and guidance, but issued first-quarter revenue guidance slightly below the Wall Street consensus. The poor revenue guidance was partly, but not completely, offset by slightly better-than expected guidance for first-quarter operating costs. Overall, the magnitude of the earnings beat was...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

Economic downturns are usually accompanied (and perhaps prolonged) by a tightening of private credit, as you can see on this chart of S&P 500 performance vs commercial and industrial loans from all commercial banks. Lending significantly lags stock market performance, but a downturn in lending generally confirms a recession, and an upturn in lending generally...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

IBM has been making this triangle chart pattern since 1997 and will forced to a decision point one way or the other by 2026. For some investment strategies, you have to perceive time like a tree. :) IBM's earnings and sales have been shrinking for many years-- EPS at a rate around 2.5% per year, and SPS at a rate around 0.25% per year. That makes this essentially...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

The financial sector's technicals are looking more bullish after earnings week, with the MACD above the signal line and the price above a volume support. Banks reported mixed financial results, with sales 4.3% above Street expectations, but earnings 3.3% below Street expectations. The earnings came in weak mostly because banks set aside big piles of cash to guard...