DaddySawbucks

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Price rises to lower highs when RSI rising, hence 'hidden divergence'; RSI looks bullish but price remains bearish, each rally a bulltrap. Some of these rallies can get pretty fierce, shaking bears loose and sending shorts for cover. Then the trend resumes, trapping bulls. These bear market whipsaws just kill all the players. When you're in these, you get the...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Bottom is not in imo. It's a complex and massive correction. Bearmarket not nearly finished. Another 500 pips to go imo. Will grind for weeks. FOURTH Wave ended in H&S. Textbook breakdown. Anxiety mounting. Capitulation and extreme fear coming. VIX 80 again. Then anger and disbelief.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

ES tracking the downtrend TL. Can it break out? If not, rejection coming. No projection, just observation, watch, see what it does. Indicators mixed in the middle. Anything can happen!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Bars fit pretty neatly, eh? Just a notion. Wouldn't bet the farm on this countertrend move. Get high enough to stop out bears for loss then plunge. Fibo at 4300 probably be the end of this bearmarket rally. Might get higher, might not. Prior rallies in Jan, Mar failed. This will too imo. Gamblers' Game; Vicious beast.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Looks like price can break up out of down channel. First Resistance at 4220, then stronger R at 4300. Target in the box. 200 pips = 5%. Been oversold badly for weeks. Time for relief rally; a technical breakup. Once confidence returns the bullishness could get quite furious. Maybe you don't feel real good about buying now, that's reasonable. You don't want to...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Had triple bottom in March. Test it again and bull from oversold likely. Ultimate LOTY to come later in September/October, of course, pretty standard. Not advice, just a WAG.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Extreme risk for any position now. Should this rally fail and reject from upper TL the fall will be steep and swift- capitulation, a fifth wave down. Capitulation is the intense fear and dismay of investors who realize too late that their stonks ain't gonna hunt. Just when you think, "Finally! It's going back up!" Suddenly it isn't. Then the hammer drops... the...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Sometimes runaway gaps don't fill. There are unfilled gaps from 2010 and 2015, lol. But, I suspect we might see another test of the low price before it really takes off. Trade small with caution!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Could get another 100 pips to downside just looking at the TL. Notice how the long wicks in prior lows form an 'ultimate tl' and after close 5/11 how price rests on the red centerline of pitchfork. NOT sayin it will go there, just watch and wait to see if it does, would hate to get caught long and get mauled, eh? IF it crushes down to target price 3842 will...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Pattern reminiscent of the Christmas Crash 2018. Although seasonality usually favors price in April this was the Cruelest month ever. Dec was an unseasonal bear four years ago, a crash can happen at any time. Worst selloff since COVID today, more coming IMO. This big selloff day is unlikely to be followed by another, but anything is possible. The whole thing...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Note the big red candles in prior selloffs of this trend each followed by a deep flush with reversal leaving a long wick. Crashing. Big ERs Weds FB and Thurs AMZN, AAPL all EOD after the close. Extreme risk in any position now, highly unstable, unpredictable. Catch this knife at your own risk. Indicators become worthless in a panic. Oversold >> More Oversold....

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Buying an ER play on Apple. Opened three Apr 29 155p / 162.5c net debit 5.55. Expect calls to profit but who knows, its nuts. IF it tanks the puts will pay well IMO so i went a bit farther OTM on the short side. Stock trades at 160 on opening. Moving up now. Wish us better luck than Meta! LOL

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Measured move coming IMO. Massive tank possible. Open position, been DCA these 29 Apr puts: 175 #8 170 #6 165 #4 Amazing tankoff today... not holding QQQ overnight it could certainly enjoy a brief bounce to start the session, but; FB meltdown will tank the techs.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Not sayin this is going there, but it could snap off just like that. Breaking the support TL is a BearMarketSignal IMO. Trade with care, or stay in cash. 'Finishing move' could be Initiation Impulse... BottomFishing can kill you... sucks to be Wrong! GLTA!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

ABC Fib Extension 1:1 at 4255; 1.27 fib extension could give a wick down to 4170 area. Friday's 1k drop in DJI feels like a finishing move. Left shoulder was 4222, see if we get it Monday. IF this is an impulsive 3rd wave down, then it's bottomless. Monday likely to enjoy a bounce, ofc can sell more but a bounce is coming. P/C ratio .72 now; two puts open for...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. Strong similarity to structure from March rally. Down channel is an obvious bull flag formation, seven waves down. A measured move would reach over 4800; A blow-off top?!? Anything is possible; not sayin this will happen; saying it could. At any rate, indicators gone oversold and a clear EW impulsive downtrend appears at or near completion. This...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

1:1 > 2:1 > 3:1 rolling downhill at varying angles of descent. ABC Correction to finish off on the 3:1 track. Target in the box. Offered as alternative hypothesis to my bull case scenarios. IMO can break either way; trade with great caution! GLTA

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says it better than I can. Moving up from oversold. NFLX put a damper on it but that won't last long imo. Move above 4480 is bullish, eh? Take a look at Dec 2018 for the pattern. Double top at a lower high after decline from ATH, before the massive selloff. The projection as shown is for an EW impulse. Might get it, might not. See what we get! No position...