Fomenka

Fomenka

Today the market has invalidated the previous scenario with contracting triangle and now I am looking at 3 versions of a single scenario with [a ] [b ] [c ] flat. The chart is in category FAFO - f..ck around and find out.

Fomenka Updated 

Natgas has followed the Local Alternative scenario and formed a symmetrical triangle. The triangle is running meaning there is only direction possible (on the condition that it is a triangle and not something else). I will keep the idea in the green bucket of confidence.

Fomenka

The previous SP500 update worked like a clock. I did not expect it to play out so fast and took only about half of the money the market offered. Now I provide a bit more nuanced chart on how things can unfold from here. The chart is not exhaustive. There is a probability that the price will consolidate and make another push higher. I will ignore it unless I see...

Fomenka Updated 

Cannot produce a variety of scenarios as of now. Will give it a green confident label and will look for alternatives while watching the price action.

Fomenka

Ok, the price formed a diagonal which I envisaged in my previous post as a terminal wave but then made a new low. Seems like we will have another leg up and lower low before the trend changes. This way the price forms ABC flat structure connecting previous diagonal wave a that I took for the terminal wave in my previous update and new additional wave. The rule...

Fomenka

Despite the fact that there are two consecutive expanding diagonals (which are considered rare), I have assigned the idea a green confidence mark since the low level waves develop in a way that does not suggest many alternatives. However, this is risky. Usually, the chart moves in the other direction when I get overconfident.

Fomenka

A couple of scenarios I am tracking right now. This is not exhaustive. A more pronounced pullback is also possible where wave is already finished and we are in wave down. However, it is too early to elaborate on it.

Fomenka

In addition to previously posted chart there is another alternative of the same scenario where consolidation wave is much smaller.

Fomenka

After such wild swings I have somewhat restored my confidence in the count where according to my analysis we are in the midst of correction, hence volatility and uncertainty. Wave x is plotted in 2 scenarios - triangle and expanded flat. I would say that flat is the preferred one based on the sctructure of waves a and b that tempt me to label both of them as...

Fomenka

The steepness of the rise made me construct another alternative. If the price starts consolidating we are likely to keep going up. Next few hours will show the way. If the price makes a U turn in the next half an hour I will be tempted to short with a tight SL. Not advice.   Colour coding for reference 🟢 - green represents those in which I am reasonably...

Fomenka

I believe we are on track with what I posted previously. At his moment I think the odds for near term (next two weeks) bearish case are rising. I will give this idea a green label based on my growing confidence in the bigger picture which allows me expect only few combinations in the near term Colour coding for reference 🟢 - green represents those in which I...

Fomenka

I think we are still in the ending diagonal scenario. But given that it is taking that much time to form that ending diagonal I am starting to have my doubts about it. Within that scenario wave b can still take shape of running flat. Once wave b is done wave c can be an impulse, a contracting diagonal or an expanding one (less probable hence light grey). Once...

Fomenka

I am elaborating on my previous chart providing a scenario thinking on possible paths of the price action. I'll be introducing two new features in my postings starting now. 1) I will always post in a scenario way to keep reminded of several possibilities even within a single scenario. 2) I will be labelling my ideas into categories 🟢 - green represents...

Fomenka

I am inclined to think that my older scenario that I first introduced in 2022 is valid and we have just completed wave 1 of (C) of .

Fomenka

Though I am reaonsably certain in the big picture of the upward trend the near term wave count can unfold in many ways.

Fomenka

The coloured count is the original one that I maintained over weeks for now. The grey one is the alternative which correspondst to the count in Gold and therefore has an better chance of realisation.

Fomenka

A humble attempt to preempt the running flat based on moving averages dynamics (not shown on the chart).

Fomenka

Correction of the previous chart. Still can be a flat in the making but unlikely given the height of the retracement in wave ii.