COT on E-MIni DJI shows recent Commercials(Prod/User) traders massive long indexes.
I could only get the COT data back to 2010, since then it was only 5 times when Prod/User traders went long $YM_F.
2010 June, 2011 Sep, 2015 Sep, 2016 Feb, and now.
You can see that when DJI is below 200 weekly MA, Prod/User traders long indexes and, above that they short...
I am long Silver however my outlook for silver is that current breakout could fade very soon, based on COT report.
Commercials holds lots of shorts/LargeSpecs still keep longs, it could go a little more but could sharply fall again to lower TL.
I have been loving #silver but Bullion Banks always dump silver as hard as they could. Long squeeze...
Large Specs/Money Managers are net short and Commercials are net long now.
This tends to be bullish if it broke out of TL resistance(Colored in purple).
Let's wait for confirmation. Until then trend is clearly down based on MAs(13, 50, 200MA direction)
Cocoa has been up since March, and this week it tried to break out of three MAs(13, 50, 200) and failed.
In the ST, it is not bullish.
But when you look at the COT positions, Money Managers are net short(long 42%, short 58%).
This is constructive.
It could retest Lower TL again, or go straight up.
Cocoa is now trying to break 200MA and three moving averages(13MA, 50MA, 200MA) will soon turn upward.
As always Cocoa tends to be choppy below resistance. But once it broke out, Cocoa tends to move a good +20%.
This chart is 20 year chart of Gold Weekly.
Green: MT Uptrend
Red: MT Downtrend
*based on moving averages' direction and order.
You can see that we are now in a strong bull market since May 2019.
If this continues, Gold will reach ATH by next year.
Silver futures will pull back until Money Managers are short.
Historically, when Commercials are heavily shorting silver, slow irritating consolidation continues.
I'm seeing at least one month consolidation till higher low is in. At that time, Money Managers would have flipped to short. Let's see.
1. main scenario is retrace to $2200 then go upward to $2600.
2. if it holds $2350(current TL), it is possible to see straight up to $2600
My feeling is the former as stochastics/PMO/MACD are all going downward so healthy pullback is due.
I've been waiting for $50 entry however the resistance @$50.5 was very strong.
I upgraded my entry level to $50.5 - $51.5. Reward/Risk is good for #naturalgas #energy under current weak dollar circumstances.
ALGN used to be a very bullish momentum stock.
Now ALGN need to consolidate and regain momentum.
PMO shows negative momentum, but stochastics is bottoming out.
Keep watching if it keeps the Gap Up resistance.
GDX has 2-3 months cycle and current price is supported by lower end of the BOX.
GDX would rebound soon but Strong Dollar will depress GOLD and GDX soon.
Be patient for next short opportunity within two seeks.