4 Hrs gives us a swing signal. A Pull back is very likely now. How deep? 1,3845-50 as minimum, but maybe even to 1,3800-1,3815 area, where we have the Kijun Sen now on both time frames. Don't forget that the main trend on higher daily time frame is still up. We need to check chart components again at 1,3815 if we get there. For now I'd say at least take partial...
I hesitated too much, as I was not sure if it was really building a bottom in last couple of days. At least I am sure it did. Daily: Slow Stuch bullish, MACD buy signal + we have the major uptrend in place 4 Hrs: Tenkan/Kijun medium bullish cross, Price above 100 WMA, Price soon to break out of teh Kumo on top side, which will also be a break of horizontal...
Seriously I don't understand what the hell can be so attractive in the Goulash currency. Nothing has changed and I think nothing will change in economy policy there after the elections. I talked to some of my friends who work as fx spot traders or rate traders in bank treasuries, asked them what do they see or hear from major customers, what are the idea behind...
9435! Watch that! What do we have there? Daily Kumo (very thin cloud!) 4 Hrs: 100 WMA, Future Kumo bottom What else gives a warning signal? Daily MACD close to a bearish cross, DMI negative on both time frames, Slow Stoch bearish on both time frames. Now it worths to watch even one lower time frame, the 1 Hr chart. Price is consolidating in the Kumo there,...
4 Hrs: Kumo and Kijun retest was down yesterday. European session brought some selling again in stocks "with no news"... or maybe someone finally realised the fall in Chinese Export number. Who cares, price action seems to be weak, Slow Stoch turning down too. Small short might be good for a 1840 tgt at least (with stop above 1877). Then we'll see if the range...
The whole morning it was sufferring to go higher, price action was very weak. Daily: MACD bearish cross soon? 4 Hrs: Weak Tenkan/Kijun Sell signal is still valid, price retested Kijun sen and had a sharp turndown. Trend is broken. DMI turns bearish. Slow Stoch down. Try to sell on spikes, Target may be 3070. Stop above 3200.
Daily Kumo Cloud blocked the bearish move, and other indicators show pretty obviously that EUR strength against USD is back. Theoretically on the 4 Hrs trading time frame the buy entry setup looks like this: Limit Buy 1,3765 OCO Stop Buy 1,3810. There was already a higher probability for the Long yesterday in the early European trading hours, when the cross...
80,50 horizontal reistence worked well on 4 Hrs chart, especially that it was the top of the daily Kumo Cloud too. The turnaround was pretty agressive, 4 Hrs mini bullish trendline broken, and price dropped below the Kumo. Given that DMI components are too wide and also Slow Stoch is turning up from oversold level, we'll hopefully see a bounce to 80 - 80,10,...
What's next short term, or what's next longer term? Long term it is very difficult to see how it will behave, but I would not be comfortable with longs. Very short term I think 1840 might hold again, as both SP500 and Nas100 have become short term oversold (see slow stoch on 4 Hrs) and again we could see some tricky buying. Anyway it's "Turnaround Tuesday!...
Trend following systems work best and work only when there is a trend, or at least there is a chance that a trend can start. But also, trend following indicators can tell you when the instrument is not trending, just consolidating and trading in a range. This is the case with the Bund. Price is in the thick Kumo on the daily chart, while DMI is nothing else but a...
It is basically almost the inverse of the USDCHF analyses I've just published () Which trendline will hold? Will it be the daily from 1,3700 to push price higher? If yes, then how high could it go? Or will it be the 4 Hrs timeframe's downtrend to gove some support for EURUSD sellers? Daily Slow Stoch zig-zag, but points more up, 4 Hrs Slow Stoch overbought, may...
Indicators got very mixed on the two different time frames. Certanly it will be very difficult to play USDCHF now. Very likely charts of other USD crosses show same confusion, I will check it later, but now let's see the USDCHF odds. Daily: Price reached the Kumo and the downtrend line, where printed a Hanging Man reversal candle. Slow Stoch gave a sell signal...
Bullish momentum and indicators have been improving a lot since we opened the outright longs and the bullish call spread on back of the idea that gold was building a bottom around 1280-1290 and was likely to reverse up. Daily: Slow Stoch has been marching up, and more importantly MACD is about to give a buy signal too. 4 Hrs: Price is "consolidating" within the...
Obviously this mkt is very sick. Every last bullish attempt faded. Price broke below daily Kumo, and the tech bulls might face a serious trouble soon, in case Nas100 drops below 3500 key support. But for now it seems a bit oversold on 4 Hrs time frame, so the bulls will likely try to protect 3500 and the weakest chain can show some correction today and/or...
In all aspects Eurostoxx50 Index is extremely bullish, while US mkts are not so much. Last daily candle is a huge Hanging Man (normally a good indication for short term trend exhaustion), daily Slow Stoch is overbought and started to point down, and watch 4 Hrs ADX, which is close to 50! ADX is a measure of trend's strength, but most of the time when it is so...
The Governing party FIDESZ won elections in Hungary yesterday with great majority. If they will have the 2/3 majority again, is still a question. But is it a question regarding EURHUF? Nope. The fact is that the economy policy will remain the same, so I doubt that allows the HUF to strengthen in the long run. Anyway, this is only a not, an add on, a fundamental...
Yesterday price action was a bit scary, but it looks like today we get more confirmation signals about the bullish reversal. It is very simple: Daily Slow Stoch to give Buy signal today. 4 Hrs Slow Stoch on Buy now, DMI likely to give a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross. Price has to clear the 1295-1300. Then the way is open up to 1320-1325. And who knows, maybe after...
Actually it should have started the correction already according to my expectations. For the last three days I've been waiting for it. In fact, what has the Dax been doing? Nothing! It is stuck at very important resistence level. Given the overbought stance of Slow Stoch on the daily chart, and also the slight negative divergence in MACD seen on the Heiken Ashi...