While on EURUSD I still have no real and strong conviction to trade (it is still consolidating with no real momentum on any sides), USDCHF I prefer to go long in smaller clips slowly. Please see my arguments in the previous post linked below. On the back of EURUSD move today, finally USDCHF traded lower as well. Based on my previous idea I bought some small...
This post is rather an observation than a trade idea. While the trend and daily Ichimoku setup is massive bullish, I think these are tipical signals of a possible short term trend exhaustion, when one being long should think about taking partial profit: - Daily MACD turning down - Slow Stoch turning down - DI+ line crosses the ADX at high level - pin bars and...
I don't tell you to buy, I don't tell you to sell. I tell you to stay out of it until you se any better level to enter your desired direction. Given the daily Ichimoku setup, my desired direction in gereral and in long term is to go short at some point, if even then it will be reasonalbe to be bearish and the idea will be supported on multiple time frames. How...
Looking at Ichimoku components and the trend alone, it is defenately bullish on both time frames. But...! ... But there are few things I don't like: - Daily MACD triple negative divergence - Daily Slow Stoch turning down again, with printing slightly lower top on this cross. - 1,6820-40 resistance held three times. - 4 Hrs ADX dropped to very low level, sub 15...
Daily: MACD gave a sell signal, Slow Stoch bearish too. Price below Kijun again an back into the Kumo Cloud (again into the neutral hesitation zone on daily chart). What is very important, that Chikou Span is below the price candles now. Senkou B (Kumo bottom - orange line) is has been flat for long time, which mens this is kind of equilibrium level, which...
Ladies and Gentlemen! This chart has so many interesting details to discuss that it worths a longer post. Maybe it even gives us a very good early projection regarding the possible future for the USD in general. But first of all I have to apologies being such a betrayer! I betrayed my favourite cross, USDCHF not paying any attention to it for the last 1,5 weeks....
I don't want to complicate it too much. 4 Hrs time frame: bearish Price trades below Kumo, which is very thick now above the price. Tenkan/Kijun Bearish, Chikou bearish. We may see some buying attempt again and again, but selling pressure will increase ard 1305-1307 I think. 1 Hr time frame: bearish. Price should break and stay above 1310 for become less...
Two days ago I've called your attention for possible sell signals in AUDUSD. Since then price has not changed much, in fact it started consolidate in the Kumo Cloud on 4 Hrs time frame. However within 2 days charts produced more signals that makes me more confident with going short here, with a nice risk/reward. Let's put it together: Daily - Bearish engulfing...
In pro traders terminology we often used the word "Choice", when a certain instrument or mkt was not doing anything. When I used to trade on interbank mkt this was one of the biggest fun, to show to another dealer or to a customer a "Choice price" when they called for a two way quote. That means the counterpart had to trade on the price, it was kind of soft...
So far it is the pull back I expected (please see prev. related idea) What to do here? Buy it or sell it? When you don't have a clear signal (and I do not have it yet), then don't do anything. You can guess, you can bet, but that is rather gambling than a reasonable trade decision based on a higher probability. Someone asked me what would I do if I had to...
We may have an early sell signal here. Take profit on longs if you have not yet done, and we can also try a Short now with 0,9420 stop. You can chose to try to sell it in more clips in spikes between 0,9360 - 0,9400, but honestly I don't know what are the chances of a short term spike as mkt must be very much loaded with AUDUSD longs. Size up short position if...
Please see the previous recommendation and follow up about Gold Long trade via the link below. Let's see what has changed, and why price is unable to move higher now. Daily: The Kumo was and still is too thick. Normally it is very difficult for any instruments to trade out of the Kumo in cases like this. After not fully testing Kijun Sen (which was my original...
WTI printed two pin bars in last two days, which means the break attempt of the downtrend proved to be false. Daily Slow Stoch gives a sell signal. On 4 Hrs price crossed below Kijun Sen. Price will likely correct down to 101. The long term direction is still unclear. Price is stuck in a triangle. Long term play it in the direction of the triangle break. Trade...
SP500 has arrived to the very important support (Trendline + Kumo Cloud) It is oversold on 4 Hrs timeframe and of course the lovely Turnaround Tuesday is very close, so I think people again will frontrun it and will buy already today. I recommend partial take profit on shorts, and put options and/or cover the bearish positions with 1720 June or 1750 May Short...
The trend is still up. The question is for how long? Until the trend clearly ends and maybe reverses, we can not say a double top is in. I always like to see it confirmed and announce it in past tense, rather than predict it too early. Daily Slow Stoch turning down, and there is serious deterioration in price action on the 4 Hrs chart too. Good chance for the...
I think it has become stretched a bit, so probably worth a partial profit taking now, and if I had any positions myself I would move my total and final stop sell to 0,9300 - 0,9330 area. (unfortunately I am not long, normally I do not trade it as not in my trading time zone). Daily: Slow Stoch is about to gove a bearish signal, and while all Ichimoku components...
... This was my answer to my very good friend, who called me last friday to ask my technical view on EURCAD. He had the idea to go short, mainly based on changes in long term fundamental differences. This post could be a trade idea as well, but maybe it is a bit too late to go long now. The reason I still post it is to show you what are the problems with the odds...
The turn down from daily Kumo top and the bearish move was pretty agressive, fast and straight. Thus USD has quickly become oversold. DXY reached the previous low, which was printed in mid March. What we have to notice here is that if price can not drop below the 79,30 key support early next week, then the three lows (Oct 2013, March 2014, April 2014) will be able...