This bullish scenario is only for reference, I do not consider it the most likely outcome.
For the bulls to turn this into a recovery likely need to see only brief consolidation before continuation.
As much as this is a case for the bulls it is a cautionary message for the bears. Trade with a open mind and remain protected at all time if the bulls got momentum it...
Since natural gas has made new lows and continued the downtrend it is likely price actual is down or possibly sideways for the remainder of summer.
Will be watching price action structure over the next few days.
Due to current fundamentals $1.30 may be on the high side for bearish price action. It would be very possible for price to declined substantially if...
Weekly trend did not change, new lows made.
Cycle low target date in August or September.
With the continued fundamental uncertainty the natural gas down trend has continued.
Price will likely continue to be extremely volatile.
This is the daily chart but I though it was clearer for showing the weekly cycle at this point.
Using April 2 double bottom as weekly cycle low date. Next weakly cycle low is expected late summer.
Price targets vary greatly, price action so far has been very mixed and could go either way at this point.
Current daily cycle will probably give better insight into...
Natural gas scenarios to watch in the coming weeks.
Red scenario, bearish momentum continues on July and August contracts.
Orange scenario, overall bearish but bear breaks continue to lack follow trough with mostly sideways trading.
Green scenario, after the wick to the downside getting bought up there is room for a higher low that may get a reversal going.
Natural Gas low on May 13 is possibly a short daily cycle low. Confirmation will be required.
With June expiring next week if July holds long term support May 13 was likely the daily cycle low.
It would be a short cycle but it is not that unusual. It's only something to keep an eye on at this point we'll see how next week play outs before really knowing.
The protect profits price has been broken, if you haven't done so already you should be looking at bearish positions.
The green and orange lines have not been modified since the original chart earlier this week.
Natural gas has strength when it rallies but is not able to hold on to the gains. The front month contract has been stronger then the following months...
Natural gas rallied significantly, 13% from Friday close to Monday high. Because of that a pullback is not surprising. The consolidation is not as tight as I would have liked to see. The low of the consolidation can be used as a potential stop to lock in gains. Red and blue lines we'll keep an eye on once we see direction tomorrow.
The gap should be considered...