Bulls are still hanging on with a chance of changing the weekly trend. Price does look exhausted and a seasonal cycle low in August is very possible.
Green line is based on brief consolidation and continuation. Price target is $2.15
Orange candles is the June price action.
Red is a steady grind lower over the next 3-4 weeks.
Both the orange and red have price...
June 26 is well confirmed as the daily cycle low.
The bulls were strong early in the cycle but now appears to have been a strong counter trend rallied fueled by weather changing short term fundamentals.
Bulls do still have a chance but with the weak bounce that failed this past week price action favors the bears.
Depending on the bear strength price targets would...
BOIL is designed to be used for short term trading and only truly tracks natural gas on a intraday basis.
BOIL decays because it is a commodity ETF and leveraged ETF.
Commodity ETFs have to roll futures contracts, natural gas is typically in contango causing BOIL to decay.
Leveraged ETFs re-balance each day to maintain the leverage, re-balancing results in...
Natural gas continued higher after brief consolidation before running into resistance.
Two ways of looking at natural gas price action. The first is the major low is in and bulls have proven that. The other is price was oversold and is only a strong counter trend rally due to hot temperatures and shorts taking profit.
I've shown possible price action for the...
This bullish scenario is only for reference, I do not consider it the most likely outcome.
For the bulls to turn this into a recovery likely need to see only brief consolidation before continuation.
As much as this is a case for the bulls it is a cautionary message for the bears. Trade with a open mind and remain protected at all time if the bulls got momentum it...
Since natural gas has made new lows and continued the downtrend it is likely price actual is down or possibly sideways for the remainder of summer.
Will be watching price action structure over the next few days.
Due to current fundamentals $1.30 may be on the high side for bearish price action. It would be very possible for price to declined substantially if...
Weekly trend did not change, new lows made.
Cycle low target date in August or September.
With the continued fundamental uncertainty the natural gas down trend has continued.
Price will likely continue to be extremely volatile.
This is the daily chart but I though it was clearer for showing the weekly cycle at this point.
Using April 2 double bottom as weekly cycle low date. Next weakly cycle low is expected late summer.
Price targets vary greatly, price action so far has been very mixed and could go either way at this point.
Current daily cycle will probably give better insight into...
Natural gas scenarios to watch in the coming weeks.
Red scenario, bearish momentum continues on July and August contracts.
Orange scenario, overall bearish but bear breaks continue to lack follow trough with mostly sideways trading.
Green scenario, after the wick to the downside getting bought up there is room for a higher low that may get a reversal going.
Natural Gas low on May 13 is possibly a short daily cycle low. Confirmation will be required.
With June expiring next week if July holds long term support May 13 was likely the daily cycle low.
It would be a short cycle but it is not that unusual. It's only something to keep an eye on at this point we'll see how next week play outs before really knowing.