In today's analysis I will be taking issues and indicator signals I see on various time frames.
As detailed in my last analysis: "I foresee a small drop short term & then another minor unsustainable rally that ultimately leads to our retest of support levels throughout the next 3 days."
So where are we at?
Jumping right into this...
I am going to start with the daily. Then jump to the weekly and continue my analysis down the time frames.
Shown above on the Daily, I have the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) setup with a few tweaks to color schemes. My only reason to pull it up is to show our trend off of the support, as we go down the time frames...
As mentioned in my last idea, I was looking for a bounce off of support. We held, but there are a few things to pay attention to. (This is not an exciting analysis FYI) :)
Sell pressure on the C.M.F. remained very high at support. It is currently subsiding, but the last few time we touched...
First off let me say I am not a fan of Elliott Waves, now I know some traders rely solely on E.W. but as time goes on and they gain more experience those analysts will eventually come to the same conclusion as I have. Elliott Waves are subjective, I rely on very little wave analysis, I do take it into account, but I never base a trade solely on them.
Tom Demark Sequential - T.D. Sequential
For the sake of not overloading you, I will cover the basics of the T.D. setup and a more advanced understanding of the T.D. countdown at a later time. This is very basic level understanding of the Tom Demark Sequential, once I have the second portion finished in a few days I will do another to cover trading strategies...
I try to keep my charts clean & I realize the chart above looks messy, so bear with me.
As mentioned in my previous idea from May 24th (See links below in related ideas) I am watching the weekly to see if we close above the 50 period Moving Average. I also mentioned that the Kijun-sen (Base Line in pink) & Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line in orange) are converging...
As most of you know, I focus a lot on volume analysis. I believe that volume precedes price and if there is a solid predictive method to do Technical Analysis it is through volume. However keep in mind every indicator lags in some kind of shape & form. The difference with volume analysis is you can analyze the actual supply and demand, this allows you to have an...
Weekly Bitstamp (main chart above)
Shown above on the main chart, we have the a converging Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line in orange) and Kijun-sen (Base Line in pink). If the weekly closes in 3 and a half days below the 50 Period Moving Average we will see the Tenkan/Kijun Cross cross, in reaction to the TK cross it will put a very bearish...
As mentioned in my last idea found here:
I detailed in my last analysis what happens if we break support, I also detailed that the 200 & 50 period moving averages on the 12 hour are beginning to converge and that the drop typically takes place prior to the...
Again for all the Bulls out there, I applaud you for the optimism but CONFIRMATION is CONFIRMATION. My confirmation of this bearish trend reversal is the Daily Ichimoku cloud break. (Senkou Span B or Lead 2 seen below)
Daily (below) with Ichimoku, 50 & 200 MA.
As can be seen we rest on the Senkou Span A (Lead 1) which has...
On Balance Volume (O.B.V.)
The On Balance Volume indicator (O.B.V.) is used in technical analysis to measure buying and selling pressure. It is a cumulative indicator meaning that on days where price went up, that day's volume is added to the cumulative O.B.V. total. If price went down, then...
It is fairly simple, volume moves (and predicts) price action. The current rally shows the following:
Starting on the 11th, the C.M.F. (green), A.D.X. (yellow), and C.M.F. osc. (peach) showed volume coinciding with the price rally, however yesterday we began to show a decline in overall buying power.
We have hit the daily...
Volume Profile (The explanation here is extremely detailed. The actual use I explain is the second bottom half)
2. Use Options
The Volume Profile is an extremely useful tool that can give you an expanded view of actual price pressure if you struggle to find support levels.
There are a...
Chaikin Money Flow (C.M.F.)
Chaikin Money Flow (C.M.F.) is a technical analysis indicator used to measure Money Flow Volume over a set period of time. Money Flow Volume is a metric used to measure the buying and selling pressure of a security for single period. C.M.F. then sums Money Flow Volume over a user determined look-back period. Any look-back...
- Incoming Bullish Tenkan-Kijun cross on the daily... IF we can continue with a bit more of a rally into the next daily open. 10 hours left as of this writing.
- OBV passed the level I needed for a semi bullish confirmation on daily. However we need more volume to continue past $8,550 along with additional confirmation.
- Tom Demark Sequential on the daily showing...
We fall thru support here and this area in yellow is our next stop. Setting buys at 9k and monitoring with a tight stop and hawk eyes. I mentioned yesterday on twitter as the sell off happened that $9,000 was our next stop, lets see if I am correct.
Keeping it simple.... BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
I will be filling low leverage long positions over the next few days in this zone in the yellow box above. 9900-10300
Weekly below shows we still have a bit more time before we moon so I will take this position slowly but will be building it quite large...
Stops loss will be set in the...