Bitcoin Analysis: Imperative Moment

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I try to keep my charts clean & I realize the chart above looks messy, so bear with me.

As mentioned in my previous idea from May 24th (See links below in related ideas) I am watching the weekly to see if we close above the 50 period Moving Average. I also mentioned that the Kijun-sen (Base Line in pink) & Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line in orange) are converging into a bearish T.K. cross. I had detailed that if the weekly does not cross back above the 50 period Moving Average I expect to see a very bearish outlook & that a T.K. cross would happen. We currently sit slightly below the 50 period Moving Average as of this time of writing.

29 hours to go as of this writing. Keep an eye on it, I do not expect the sell off to be instant but it is something to watch very closely.

That being said...

  • Daily Overview
    As seen above on the Daily Bitstamp we now have a similar situation with the Kijun-sen (Base Line) & Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line) converging to create a bearish T.K. cross. Considering price action is below the Kumo this would be a very Bearish signal. Last time this happened on March 26th we essentially had a $2,000 sell of from $8,400 to $6,400, the sell off began before it crossed, keep that in mind. There has been a few mixed results in the past from the daily T.K. cross but generally we sell off extremely hard just prior. I would show examples but I don't want to spam this analysis with it, set your Ichimoku settings at 20,60,120,30 and take a look at prior moves.

    Bollinger Bands on the daily are bottomed, but that is becoming more & more unreliable as an indicator in crypto. The Tom Demark sequential doesn't tell us much here other than a Bearish trend is still in movement. I left additional indicators off of the chart above since it already seems overloaded, but nothing really notable here other than the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index appear to be reacting to the 3 past candles holding steady and are trending upwards now. The Chaikin Money Flow still shows heavy sell pressure, however it has ticked up just slightly showing a miniscule relief in sell pressure.

  • 6 Hour Overview Below
    As mentioned previously in another publication here when the 6 hours RSI has reached the levels seen on May 23rd we typically have had a large bump in price. At this time there are a few different conditions to note of from prior RSI bottoms: Sell pressure is a lot heavier and we were bottomed much lower as far as price action is concerned. Something to take into account though as all this transpires. As on the Daily we are seeing a slight decrease in sell pressure but it generally aligns so far with the price action within the continuation pattern.

  • 1 Hour Overview Below
    Bulls are keeping this right at the top of our rough symmetrical triangle. If we keep testing this resistance we will need to see more buy pressure to break out. Again everything depends on actual supply and demand , Volume analysis allows you to gauge this, many analysts take familiar patterns and signals without checking to see where Volume is at, they then base a trade on past or recognizable patterns, this an error on there part as we need actual volume to break bullish unless there is the supply is limited of the underlying asset, in this case it is not.

    The hourly Kumo sits right above price current levels. We also had a bearish T.K. cross that transpired 3 hours ago.
  • Conclusion & 15 Minute
    With everything I have in front of me I still see a bearish move in play on larger time frames. As seen above and below this is how I would play any scalp trades. I would wait to see the ABCDE play before opening another short, if we get the breakout then we have a different scenario with conflicting data. Please trade carefully with these conditions, the market needs a bit more time to develop a trade opportunity.

    Generally I still have a Bearish analysis of Bitcoin, it seems every time I post it is due to a Bearish view. I cannot wait for the actual trend to reverse so I may post entries on Bullish positions, but remember, the trend is your friend, until then I will protect my portfolio as one should do with a short position. I am a Bitcoin believer but also a capitalist and day trader, the analysts that blindly publish their analysis for marketing reasons are a danger to Cryptocurrencies, people love Bullish analysis and almost every publisher on this site knows that, please keep that in mind when reading a hyped up analysis calling a Bull trend without any actual analysis to back it up.

I will be doing a few more educational pieces here, I will be doing one on trading triangles hopefully here soon, if you would like to see something specific please let me know in the comments below. Happy trading and trade safe and wise.

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Comment: Here is a new educational piece on the Tom Demark sequential that I just published. Edumacate yourself! :) Click and like the image below.
Comment: Additional analysis and trend overview can be found by clicking the image below.

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