Nick_Core

Bitcoin, where do we land? Full analysis on current conditions.

Short
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
As mentioned in my last idea found here: I detailed in my last analysis what happens if we break support, I also detailed that the 200 & 50 period moving averages on the 12 hour are beginning to converge and that the drop typically takes place prior to the Bearish cross because they are lagging, as can be seen above the drop did happen prior and the 12 hour 200 & 50 moving averages crossed later.

I also mentioned that the drop to $6,500 range would be rapid if we broke support.

It appears the bulls have lost and support has been broken, so where do we bounce and ultimately land on this drive down?

Overview & Analysis

Daily Bitstamp

Daily above shows support at $6,612 on
Bitstamp . We currently sit at BITSTAMP:BTCUSD

We will have several small bounces that will create overbought & oversold conditions as we drop rapidly and the market attempts to call the bottom. This will open up good opportunities for the scalp traders out here. At this point a drop into the support at $6,600 appears inevitable unless some serious buy support comes in that is not easily visible.

6 Hour Bitstamp

On the 6 hour above we show heavy sell pressure on the
Chaikin Money Flow but also a 9 on the Tom Demark sequential signaling a reversal point in the drop. The Demark may not apply here as support is broken and no single indicator is a god indicator. However also in favor of a small bounce here before dropping further is the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic .

2 Hour Bitstamp

Further supporting an oversold opportunity and a potential bounce here is a slightly
bullish Chaikin Money Flow divergence. The On Balance Volume indicator below however is in extreme danger, so play this bounce carefully.

Conclusion

Based on the data in front of me I see a potential slight bounce upward before continuing down to above mentioned support targets as of this writing. The risk reward is too great on the risk side to try and open up any kind of
Bullish positions. However the risk reward on a low leverage short is in my parameters. Considering support was broken I do not expect anything dramatic out of the oversold conditions, the market will attempt to pull it back up into support but at this time there is nothing indicating that we will and hold. Also to be clear I am not calling $6,612 as the bottom, I am simply publishing the next major support. I will update this with more detail at a later time.

Thank you for reading and please support by clicking like on this analysis even though it is bad news. Bitcoin will be fine when this is all finished.
Comment: Please click the chart below for an updated analysis.
Comment: Additional analysis based on Volume is found below by clicking this image
Comment: Additional analysis and trend overview can be found by clicking the image below.
All posts are for educational purposes and are simply my views of markets conditions. Please see https://www.thetradingwizard.com/automation for access to free scripts.

Please do your own research and use my content to educate yourself.

Comments

While this sort of TA isn't about to feed my family, it's the honest, levelheaded analysis we need.

Once again, you've proven why you deserve a spot on the front page of tradingview.
+5 Reply
Nick_Core JoshMcGruff
@PotatoMcGruff, Thank you my friend, now its time for you to start publishing your TA so you can get to the front page. Get on it! :)
+1 Reply
JoshMcGruff Nick_Core
@Crypto_Core, yeah man, I need to get on it. Keep the fire lit under me.
+1 Reply
Nick_Core JoshMcGruff
@PotatoMcGruff, And you to me. *Fist Bump*
+1 Reply
alfie22 Nick_Core
@Crypto_Core, How does one get to the front page? Anything we followers can do to help? Or are you already on the front page?
+1 Reply
Nick_Core alfie22
@alfie22, I believe they base it on the amount of views and likes.
Reply
alfie22 JoshMcGruff
@PotatoMcGruff, I AGREE 100%!!! So refreshing! Thank you!
+2 Reply
Nick_Core alfie22
@alfie22, Thanks!
Reply
Excellent analysis, as always @Crypto_Core - Thanks as always. I've learned a great deal from your use of CMF and OBV alone.

The last time we went parabolic, the 5-month SMA crossed below the 10-month SMA and in hindsight, that signaled the onset of the capitulation phase. I believe we are about to enter that phase now, as the cross is about to occur again.

I agree that short is the play here.



+3 Reply
Nick_Core DegenerateSatoshi
@DegenerateSatoshi, Thank you.
+1 Reply
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