As detailed in my last analysis: "I foresee a small drop short term & then another minor unsustainable rally that ultimately leads to our retest of support levels throughout the next 3 days."
So where are we at?
Daily (Main chart)
Kijun-sen (Base Line in pink) continues to distance itself from price action & the Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line in orange), there is nothing to trade from this but as it distances itself trades will come to fruition.
Seen below sell pressure continues to be heavy on the C.M.F.
12 Hour (Below)
The only thing I want to point out here is that the OBV is at dangerous levels in relation to its previous support touches and current price action.
6 Hour (Below)
Take a look at the Tom Sequential. We had a near perfect TD Sell Setup, the only reason why I say near perfect is due to the fact the 9th candle's high was not above the 7th candle's high. The 8th was above the 6th but in order for me to feel really comfortable about a setup I need to see the highs of candle's 8 & 9 be greater than the highs of candle's 6 and 7. Either way there was plenty of other signals notifying a trend reversal including the C.M.F. showing a divergence then.
Currently we see a C.M.F. with slowly subsiding sell pressure as we find some support on this time frame. The is priming to make a move, however I still feel it will be short lived. The OBV appears confluent for the most part. Lets examine smaller time frames.
4 Hour (Below)
There is a lot going on here so stay with me, Ill try not to indicator spam here. We see a red 9 on the T.D. Sequential two candles prior indicating a trend reversal indicating a Buy Setup. The T.D. Buy Countdown started there on the 9 at 1, I am looking for a a few candles of positive momentum and watching closely for a TD Combo in the future. I will cover what that is hopefully soon in a new educational idea.
The GMMA (Guppy Multiple Moving Average) shows a shift on the top chart below. The second chart below we see that price action settled Kijun-sen (Base Line in pink) & stopped at the Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line in orange). The also show us resting on the median.
2 Hour (Below)
Notable here is that the OBV is showing a divergence on the last move. We also rest slightly below the 50 period Moving Average with the 200 period closing in for a potential cross.
30 Minute (Below)
- Expanding the 30 minute (First one below) to appear more pronounced then normal we see the GMMA entering but also into overbought.
- Below that we see a nice Buy Setup on the T.D. Sequential 4 candles prior. The appears just about capped with price action well out of the , also a T.K. cross is incoming on the .
I expect a drop from overbought conditions short term. Bitcoin sits at $7,560 currently, I see a drop to the 50 period moving average at $7,455 to correct the overbought conditions on the 30 minute. This Bart pattern everyone thinks is algo's messing with traders, it is appearing to happen again as the market trades over exuberantly on these support levels. We may see several of them both Bullish and Bearish on the way down to retesting support.
I still feel we need to retest $7,300 & potentially $7,100 in order for the market to remain healthy for another rally. Even then, that does not automatically mean we will go Bullish if so, I will take a look at the market conditions once those are tested to see if support is going to hold.
If we do not get a retest of the supports mentioned I am warning you, be careful on trading longs (And shorts for that matter) as the market is in an unhealthy rally. Tomorrow we should have more clarity on our current trend.
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