SebMartel

SebMartel

Nothing has bchanged for the last month. BoC finally acknowledge the grass is not that green. Target remain at 1.36.

SebMartel Updated 

Keep it simple, two market conditions are needed to get a high probability setup to be bullish gold. It is a dollar bear and declining interest rates. Today, 10 years US yield are higher and are getting close to high range of 2.23/2.26 % while the dollar (DXY), that was losing before the job report, is now a little up up for the day. And with SP500 up, I would...

SebMartel

VIX still a good timing indicator. Range hasn't change yet. Sell stock around 16 and buy them with VIX is above 24

SebMartel Updated 

As mentionned in my previous post SP500 turned down exactly where I pointed out, that is 2814. Now expect a 2018 new low.

SebMartel

Oil prices has collapse today and return to the top of 2017 range. Although one could be very tempted to buy that dip, I would like to see positive divergence before. One small position here.

SebMartel Updated 

Sector rotation is an important part of my studies and October clearly points out to a broken market structure. Consumer staples sector surperformance compare to the index (SP500) does not bold well for the market in general. Not only this sector (along with utilities) did beat the SP500 in October, it actually came out with a positive return. That could means...

SebMartel

As mentionned in previous post, VIX turned up around 17 and is heading higher toward 26-27. Stocks will get hit.

SebMartel Updated 

Countertrend rally may have end and would be confirm with a textbook Head&Shoulder that gives a target of 1.02/1.03, which is Dec 2016 low. This is coherent with stronger dollars fuelled by demand on the back of a selloff in stocks

SebMartel Updated 

Although SP500 rebounded on the base of an important upward channel, the structure of the decline does not bold well for the index. From an Elliot wave perspective, we can clearly read a five waves decline with wave 3 accelerating and being the longest one. Wave 5 ended with a positive divergence with the RSI. On a larger scale, This fifth wave could be the end of...

SebMartel Updated 

As discussed in recent publication, rebound in SP500 should be sold. The ideal level, if ever reached, is around 2813 pts. VIX is a tool that one should use to time the market as well. A new range has been established, 17 - 26. As the vix approaches 17, one should prepare to go short stocks again.

SebMartel

Tech will provide your cue for shorting the market.

SebMartel Updated 

AAPL has been a leader in this market. As such, tech stocks have lead the index to new low, but AAPL still higher than October low. With positive divergence witnessing for the SP500, expect AAPL to jump to 224$. But, mid term trend still down, so 224$ would be a nice shorting level.

SebMartel Updated 

At first glance, seams to be a bull trap. But the structure of the market is telling otherwise. Chart is intact above 1,3068.

SebMartel Updated 

Hammer Time on the SP500, just short of the 2610 target. With Pos. Div in place, we should finally get a nice level to short around 2800pts.

SebMartel Updated 

In an environment of declining rate and stocks prices, Utilities are a sector who tend to outperformed. With 10 year US rate heading to 3,00% and stocks much lower, XLU can be a good bet against general index

SebMartel

USD/CAD have been stuck within a downward channel for the past four month. Right now, it seams ready to pop out toward 1.36 target, i.e. W=Y extension. And within Y, we can count a possible three waves up in the process, again with a 1.36 target. Plenty of room on the RSI as well.

SebMartel

SP500 have completed 5 wave down in a typical manner. Ideal target would have been 2612, but Wave 5 may have been completed today with a positive divergence. Any rebound close to 2800 should be sold

SebMartel

SPX just completed five wave down from Sep 21st high. Expect rise to max 2817 level then establish short position. Minimum objective is 2610 pts.