As long as BTC remains below this logarithmic resistance line, I remain neutral, with slight bearish tendency. Only after we manage to burst through that resistance with good volume, and close above it, do I get optimistic. From my experience, if BTC stays too long below an important resistance, dumps will occur. But that remains to be seen. If we burst through,...
I found it funny how many charts are published here on tradingview based on so called TA, calling for 1 million USD by 2020 and the like, hundreds of k at least, all within 2 years. I found that so funny indeed, that I was embarassed to be only calling for 100-200k by 2021-2022, that I had to do my own super solid TA, based on.... hold on: LINES. Yes, LINES. I...
Hi, a quick update on the developments. It seems that BTC just doesn't want to dump. Also, the shorts also remain high, which leads me to believe that a short squeeze might occur, sudden and swift. If BTC doesn't start dumping soon, that is. The whole bearmarket scenario is invalidated for me, if BTC starts pumping this month, and lasts until...
A quick update for the BTC monthly view. It is interesting to note that neither MACD, nor Stoch RSI are showing signs of potential trend reversal. Only the middle bband could signalize that we are resting on support. Currently we are exactly on the monthly bband, if we can hold that level, we might see a trend reversal. If however, we break the middle bband,...
The shorts came down, however, they are still too high. I think we'll see a pump to the 7000 area, where MA200 and log res are strong resistances. Then a leg down to the 4800 area. The final low will be early 2019 in the 3k area imho. Keep in mind, the peak of next rally, starting in 2020 at the latest, is at least 100k. Good times are ahead even though BTC...
The shorts are still very high, I think a short squeeze is almost inevitable. So, we could go up to around 7500 again, before resuming the bearish downtrend. The low, and this is also suggested by other analyses, is probably in the 3000 area. It goes back to the china crash in 2017, where 3k served as an excellent support. Then we'll probably see a bottom...
Not much to write here. The longterm support seems to be breaking right now, and this could get ugly fast. I don't think it will go below 8100 though, this is the lowest possible target that I see for the next 12-16 months. Interesting times ahead.
There could be a short term push towards the daily moving average 200, however, I don't see BTC pushing through just yet. This probably will happen sometime in 2019, and this will be the buy signal for me. Just being patient, and waiting for it to break the resistance. There is a small chance that it will break the resistance before that, in this case, it is...
The problem with fractals is that you can see them everywhere hehe. They occur on many different timescales. For example, we can see fractals where this here might already have been the low, at 5700. This would mean that the bearmarket from 2014/15 was now repeated in an accelerated fashion. However, we can also draw a fractals, where everything from the top in...
It looks as if BTC could make it this time, however there are still mixed signals. Daily has been overbought for a while now, like the last two tops, when BTC price hit exactly the MA200 line. Shorts are coming down fast, longs rising, so if BTC doesn't break through fast enough, it could go down again. I have to admit that I am undecided right now. I will just...
Sorry, I didn't know how to do it here on tradingview. My very smart girlfriend Jixuan Wang used the program R to import and plot the real bitcoin price versus the Metcalfe price: ibb.co Orange is real price from exchanges, green is Metcalfe price, which can be calculated from the number of the daily transactions squared: P = C* T². P=price C= a constant,...
A quick chart illustrating that even in the bearmarket of 2014/15, the MA200 weekly support was holding. It therefore seems, that this support acts as ultra strong lonterm support, so imagining how this support will develop, could give hints about the future price development of BTC. If BTC is to repeat a bearmarket 2014/15 style, it is very likely that price...
The monthly picture is always nice for determining the larger picture. We have a very strong monthly bearish MACD cross, and the monthly RSI is firmly below 70. Historically, we can see that every time this was the case, we had a bearmarket. Back in 2011-12, in 2014-15, and now. I assume this will drag on until mid 2019, when we get the next upward momentum...
So far, this bearmarket is remarkably similar to the 2014/15 one. So much so, that I often think: This can't be, this is too predictable. Ok, sure, the exact behavior is different, spikes and dumps occur not exactly at the same times and the fractal looks a bit different. But the general behaviour is the same: 1. Slow grind down along an exponential falling...
So, there are many charts to be seen at the moment on tradingview, showing this latest longterm trendline, and how BTC will certainly bounce off it, giving us a low of around 4500. However, if we look at BTC historical data, we can see, that bitcoin already had 2 trendlines of this type, which both were broken. The first one starting in 2010 until 2011, the...
So at the moment I see many charts that draw the longterm trendline from the last bullmarket, that started end of 2015, early 2016. By this trendline, we come to the conclusion that the low will be at around 4500, because that trendline is solid as rock, it cannot break, impossible. However, many people forget that we already had trendlines like this twice. The...
Well, as soon as BTC starts showing some strength again, I start seeing the funniest pictures on tradingview. People calling 100k this year. That is some real shilling right there. Yeah, let's make the newbies think that the ETF is a magical 100k+ machine, the ETF will just buy up ALL THE COINS, drive up the market volume magically x10-20, bring millions of new...
In every bearmarket there are rallies, this one is no different. To find out how high this will go, we should not just look at the daily picture, because this can be misleading, but also the weekly picture. This one shows that the upper bound of 11k is very unlikely to be achieved. Why? The upper bollinger band AND the daily MA200 are in the high 9k's. I don't...