FlaviusTodorius67
Long

Short term upside potential for BTC

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The shorts are still very high, I think a short squeeze is almost inevitable.

So, we could go up to around 7500 again, before resuming the bearish downtrend.
The low, and this is also suggested by other analyses, is probably in the 3000 area. It goes back to the china crash in 2017, where 3k served as an excellent support.

Then we'll probably see a bottom formation and bouncing around that area. Then sometime in 2019 we'll get ready for the next bullrun towards new ATHs.

Why don't I believe, like some others here, that a new bullrun is about to start this year?
Imho, the network is not robust enough yet to sustain such prices of 20k+.

We need a few more years to get there until the network has grown more, more transactions, and more institutions pouring fiat into btc , also enabled by a probably ETF approval at some point. I am short term long, mid term short, longterm always bullish .
Sep 23
Comment: Well to my non-surprise, BTC is pushing towards 7000 again, probably will touch the MA200 resistance, before continuing bear-trend. Shorts are coming down fast because of this expected upmove. I think in a few days, longs will be higher than shorts again so that the downtrend will continue. A top of this move of up to 7400 is possible.
Jun 16
Comment: So it is funny to press the play button on this chart here. One of my more accurate predictions, but at that time I thought that I was being too optimistic, and instead decided to take a more bearish stance. Which in hindsight of course turned out to be wrong.
I should have sticked to this plan, but fortunately then my backup plan came into play as soon as BTC unexpectedly turned bull: Buying large amounts of altcoins. They were my backup plan, in case of unexpected BTC pump, because they always lag behind BTC a few months.
Some more than others.
But yeah, in hindsight I should have had more confidence in BTC hehe. Well, that's the beauty of hindsight isn't it. Makes everything look so obvious and easy lol.
Nice chart! Meets my point of view (without timespawn)

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This are not retail shorts. No one will squeeze himself.
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@Mo6e, I'm not sure what kind of shorts these are. All I see is that they are too high.
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Mo6e FlaviusTodorius67
@FlaviusTodorius67, may be you don't remember the short spike 10 days ago. It wasn't created by retail because the increase wasn't gradual. If shorts are high this not necessarily mean that they will be squeezed especially when they are held by bigger entities. I like your analyses since I'm as well bull 4 life, however I trade, so for now I'm not able to recognize any bull trend reset, especially when I see that the price is held not naturally but mostly by exchanges (check binance usdt and btc holdings). I'm not able to recognize demand on the market and accumulation. Only artificial hold of the 6k mark, which will not hold forever.
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@Mo6e, Ok, thanks for the clarifitcation. I don't see it going above 7400 anyways, best case. I'm on your side with the rest of the analysis, I also see an eventual break of the 6k area to lower grounds.
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