Okay, EUR and JPY : the pair : EURJPY. How to trade ?. This week, BOJ Meeting is the main risk event impacting on Yen. I expect BOJ will extend stimulus. Hence, Yen trade likely is SELL. I also expect EUR fall. Between EUR and JPY, I choose JPY, because this week is the week of Yen. Last week, EURJPY bounced from the 3 year low at 126 I think this key...
Neadless to say,ECB set the case for EURUSD trade. They said they will increase stimulus likely in March. Hence, the mood of EURUSD trade is SELL. I believe EURUSD quickly backs to 1.0500 in the medium term. That why I sell EURUSD to 1.0500 last week. Look at on the chart, the most important thing I want to share: EURUSD has had two months trading in a...
Many traders were surprised the correction of oil last week from the low $28.82 despite the fact is Iran increased the oil production to 1 million per day. I think in the short term, Oil will be trade in the range between 35.5 and 28.8 Strong resistance is at $35.50, Oil would test this resistance this week, but later it will bounce from this level and likely to...
Last week, we saw SPX rejected 2015 low and bounced aggressively from this key support despite of weak US CPI data. It's easy to understand that traders buy stock when it's lying in oversold zone for a long time (RSI indicator I show on the chart). This week, market watches carefully on US data to trade US stock market. Main data: + Markit PMI + Consumer...
It was two months DXY sideways in a range between 97.50 and 99.50 And it's also holding above ascending trend line. I think the sideways would finish in this week with many strong incoming data. - FED Meeting - BOJ Meeting - US GDP (Q4) - EZ CPI Here is my opinion : + FED Meeting : a neutral stance likely is expected. + BOJ Meeting: I expect BOJ would...
While AUDUSD and USDCAD broke their 2015 year low and high, NZDUSD still hold above 2015 year low at 0.6235 The main reason is New Zealand has interest rate higher than the rest of world. However. Kiwi still be under pressure. Next week, main focus is NZ CPI on Tuesday. If it's positive, Kiwi gains support and halt the downtrend ; on the other hand, if CPI is...
Last week, A/U made a big break when it pierced 2015 year low to fall below 0.6900 This is an important break we must not ignore and who calls for a buy should rethink their decisions. The problem is Australia has a great connection to China, so when China has problem,Australia is impacted as a result. I don't see any positive signal from China despite Chinese...
This week, main data are: - US CPI - ECB Meeting and EZ CPI data. Here is my viewpoint: - I expect US CPI will be positive. - I hope ECB will be more dovish and likely they will talk about more stimulus as well as a negative EZ CPI data. I also hope US stock market bounces from the low, so the bid Euro received recent weeks should end. - Technical...
S&P500 once underwent a painful week when it fell sharply to critical support at 23% Fib retracement level. First two weeks of 2016 signal a difficult year for investors holding stock. The third week is a big question. BUY in dip or continued SELL ? There are three reasons explain for the fall of stock this week: - China slowdown. - US corporation profit fell...
Last week, AUDUSD fell 5 consecutive days and lost 370 pips. Clearly, China stock crash weighted strongly on Aussie. The question is does this trend continue in this week or halt to find momentum ? I think 370 pip drop created a strong pressure on Aussie. and this trend is not over. However, to position after 5 consecutive falling days, that is a hard job....
It was two weeks and 10 consecutive days of drop while UK data is not weak. Traders abandon Pound. This week, all attention eye on BOE Meeting which I consider as the last chance to save British Pound. IF there is one more rate hike vote, Pound will be saved and bounce aggressively. Otherwise, market will continue punish Pound. The problem is that RSI is in...
Last week, when E/U broke 1.0800 and test 1.0700 level, I hoped it would quickly fell to 1.06 and more, but unfortunately, E/U bounced from 1.0700 at Kumo cloud and now stands at1.0900 Clearly, Kumo created a strong support and captured E/U in it. Fundamentally, the bid of Eur is contributed by demand for safe haven currency. I think this demand would...
We underwent the first week of 2016 with a tumble of stock market signal for a difficult year for traders and investors all over the world. Many forecasters and economists talk about incoming BEAR MARKET. I totally agree with them. The BEAR is controlling the stage, and China is driving this pair. Look at on the chart, the fitst time SMA100 cut SMA200 was in...
I am not surprised the rally of NZDUSD recent months. It just the beginning of this rally. Look at on the chart : NZDUSD has just retraced to 23.6% Fib retracement from 0.8800 to 0.6235 If N/U bounces from this level, a strong falling is a understandable thing. but I don't expect this happens. I think a BREAK. NZUDUSD cut SMA200 in August 2014 and hold...
Let look a bigger picture. In September 2014, we saw one cut of SMA100 and SMA200, from that point, USDJPY rallied more than 2500 pips from 100 to 125. Now I see SMA100 once cut SMA200 , that why I think market sentiment changed toward Yen. BOJ cut all hope about a new QE, I think market begins to reduce the size of LONG position of USDJPY. That why I...
Do you think is USDJPY complete its downtrend ? I think the answer is NO. Key support is at 118.60, I think USDJPY should test this support incoming days. 2 signals I said to confirm for downtrend: - Break SMA100+ SMA200 : The main signal is SMA100 cut SMA200 for the first time since September 2014 --> a strong signal of Downtrend. - Move below Kumo...
We begin a new trading year with lot of uncertainty. Fristly, US data recent days performed very well but it's not enough to support USDollar. Absolutely, we watch Payrolls on Friday and perhaps FOMC Minutes on Wednesday to find some signals to trade. Secondly, Eurozone begins new year with many threat from terrorist; it just a small piece of a bigger...
I think 1.4000 is the peak of USDCAD. While Oil price begins retracement period from its trough. Look at on the chart. RSI indicator, it broke its ascending trend line signal for more falling from current level. USDCAD should correct to 23% Fib retracement level at 1.3720