There are two problems I want to show on the chart: - USDJPY broke and moved below SMA200 ; I consider this is a REAL BREAK. - USDJPY offcially moved below Kumo cloud marking a new trend uprises. I think the rally of U/J lost momentum and begin a new downtrend. I believe U/J would fall to key support at 118.60 F.B page: www.facebook.com (tinyurl.com) Web...
Many traders still talk about BUY Dollar vs Kiwi, but price action is opposite their willing. The fact is USDollar is turning to correction period and we will see 2015 high is also 2016 high. Look at on the chart, ascending long term trend line and SMA200 is holding N/U below them, but I think those resistance levels would rapidly be broken. N/U now stops at...
This week, Main data : - US GDP - US Durable Good Orders. I have no idea with those pieces of data, I think this financial year should end with USDollar after FED Meeting. We have few trading days of this week before most traders enjoy Holiday including me. North America will close on 1pm Thursday and reopen on next Monday, so we have three day...
In two days , USDJPY pierced two important resistance levels : 122,20 and 121.50 122,20 was old resistance now turns to new support. 121.50 level is convergent point of SMA50 + SMA200 + SMA100 : A strong resistance. I think with the break of those resistance levels, I'm confident UDSJPY could extend higher. The next very strong resistance is 123.65, and...
After FED meeting with a rate hike decision the first time since 2006, I just that I still favor LONG Dollar. This article I mainly talk about Technical Analysis. Look at on the chart : - Firstly, RSI Indicator: It is testing the key descending trend line now: If it breaks this trend line, the bearish trend is confirmative. - Secondly, I see a clear Head and...
The strong rally of USDCAD is the biggest story last week, the rally mainly is contributed by energy price fall. The question is does it stop this rally ?. I'm not sure, while I keep bearish bias for Dollar this week, I admit that oil price could continue to fall. There is no major support of Oil untill $33, current level of oil price is not stable, and it...
With EURGBP, I lean toward EUR than GBP. SMA100 cut SMA200 for the fitst time since 2013 indicates potential trend change. EURGBP moved above SMA100 + SMA200 + SMA50 and prepare to escape Kumo cloud; I think this is a good chance to break Kumo cloud because EURGBP could face a thick Kumo next trading days. But I keep a cautious attitude of this pair. Market...
Last week, I hoped A/U extended the rally after strong employment report,but unfortunately the drop of commodity price cut the advance. However, I want to BUY Aussie ahead FED meeting. A/U now stops at key support level at 0.7200; it also SMA100 and near the celing of Kumo cloud. Kumo cloud here is very thin, so it's hard to hold A/U, not a meaningful...
- Fundamental Analysis This week, absolutely market focuses on FED Meeting on Wednesday, but UK data and Sterling are also important. Like I said in E/U analysis and in my page, I believe FED will hike rate and refuse to provide a clear path of next hike, it means I choose bearish bias for Dollar. UK data this week: - UK CPI - UK employment report. - UK...
- Fundamental Analysis EURUSD seems to be provided new life post ECB Meeting. : From 1.0500 to 1.1100 is 500 pips in two weeks; that's a great move I rarely see. The momentum behind this move according my view come from the fact that market is positioning for disappointed FED meeting on next Wednesday. I and all traders believe that FED will hike rate coz FED...
On Monday, I talked about the drop of USDJPY , and it fell faster than I expect ; two targets I choose U/J pierced. U/J now stops at SMA100 and SMA200 : 121.50 : This is indeed a strong support especailly Kumo cloud also lies there. + an ascending trend line. So what am I wating for ? I took profit a SHORT position of U/J at 121.50, and I want to SELL USDJPY...
- Fundamental Analysis USDollar today hit one month low and it seems the drop is not over. Why do traders sell greenback aggressively while the prospect of rate hike decision next week is so bright ?. There are three reasons contribute to this ongoing decline of USDollar : - Firstly, we must acknowledge that traders concentrate in the time frame of next rate...
Look at on the chart, I have three lines: - Descending trendline. - Ascending trendline. - Resistance line Three lines converge at one point I call Intersection point, please pay attention that U/J chose those three lines as a long term resistance. The problem is U/J has not enough momentum to rally, there is no more stimulus from Japan, and stock seem is...
I maintain my SHORT position of EURUSD I opened in the beginning of November despite of great soar last week. I hope SNB will cut rate and send pressure to Euro. Look at on the chart, EURUSD now stops at 38% Fib Retracement of candlestick of last Thursday. I want EURUSD to retrace more to 50% Fib retracement. That is the point I will cut my position to take profit...
Yesterday, I said in USDCAD analysis that USDCAD will gradually break the wedge pattern and YEAR to test 1.3500, I think this will happen in this week, then It reacted faster than I thought; today it broke the year high and wedge pattern exactly what I expect. The reason simply is contributed by the OIL decline. So the question is: how far does it go ? Simply,...
Yesterday, I posted a article relating to Oil, The Head and Shoulder pattern is confirmed. Price broke the neckline of H & S pattern. Basic pattern, so the decline of Oil will follow the arrow I draw on the chart. Target I choose is $37.65
This week, lack of US and Australia data so I concentrate in Technical Analysis. Strong resistance: 0.7430, A/U is not momentum to break through this level. Minor resistance : 0.7375 : 4 month high. AUDUSD broke SMA100 ,it've hold above this level since May, so SMA100 is a level we must watch if we want to SELL. The biggest story I want to share is the...
I have two levels to watch: - 1.1100 : the level ECB doesn't want EURUSD advances. - 1.0500: the level FED wants to hold. ECB member said that market understood ECB 's message in a wrong way, and wrong pricing post meeting was what we saw. Does the miracle finish ? Hard to say. The move of ERUSD on Thursday was the strongest move since 2009, many SHORT...