The downtrend of Kiwi is challenged at the strong support I draw on the chart 0.6500. Last week, I see NZDUSD tested this support many times If NZDUSD could break this support, there is no major support untill the Year Low 0.6225, so we must watch this level carefully, any break is a great chance to SELL. I watch Ichimoku pattern, and see that NZUSD is...
The biggest change last week was Sterling. It bounced about 200 pips from the low 1.5030 The main reason is come from risk Aversion and profit taking. Lack of US and UK data contributes to this correction. However, with the return of US and UK data, this week promises there will a significant move for GBPUSD. UK CPI on Tuesday is the main focus. I have no idea...
Last week, Australia employment report saved the Aussie from the decline and drived it to 0.7150 I talked about a Head and Shoulder pattern but it should ignore to consider some new signals from Technical Analysis. Look at on the chart, I see three things: - A descending channel. - AUDUSD contacted Kumo cloud. - A Doji star. - SMA50 test Those resistance...
Before going detailed analysis, I want to send strong and deep condolences to Paris' victims and France : a member of Eurozone. This week, US data return with US CPI on Tuesday, some Mario Draghi speeches, and EZ CPI on Monday are the main focuses. I shared my view about USDollar in the related ideas below, please check for more detail. With what happens in...
I begin with Technical Analysis first. Look at on the chart: - Strong resistance at Year high : 100.36 - Minor support at 98 - Strong support at support zone where has a convergent point of SMA50, SMA200,SMA100, EMA50 I especially watch the convergent point because it shapes a strong force ti attract price back to there. USDollar is finding fuel to rally, ...
EURUSD lost more than 700 pips for 2 weeks due to the divergence of FED and ECB. EURUSD has broken important levels: Break 1: Very strong support at 1.0800 Break 2: Break the trend line. EURUSD had 6 months of sideway I draw on the chart. I think this sideway should finish right now. The appetite reached to the critical point and a new trend started. I am...
Last week, there is a fact that although US Nonfarm payrolls was positive, US employment report also beat the forecast. Payrolls fade the Canada Employment Report. Oil begins to resume its decline and weight on Loonie, so the bias to trade USDCAD is still a BUY but the rally should be limited at year high. Current price is : 1.3300, Year high is 1.3450 : 150...
After payrolls and BOE Meeting last week, I think the mood to trade Sterling is SELL. The reason according to my view are: - FED definitely hike rate on December, and market will pricing for that decision. - BOE delays to 'liftoff' because they want to see FED do first. I see Technical Analysis is consolidating for the decline of Sterling. 4 breaks : - Break...
Oil price was sideway for 4 months above the key support 44. The main reason for this resilence comes from the resilience of USDollar. However, I think the resilience of oil should finish. In this article, I concentrate in Technical Analysis. The key resistance is at 41.50, I think oil price can't pierce this resistance in the near and medium term, so the bias...
I admire traders who BUY Aussie last week, they nearly were right after RBA Meeting, but unfortunately market reversed the trend so fast and the appetite for Aussie changed. Strong payrolls on Friday destroyed the hope to buy Aussie at low level, and we should abandon to buy AUDUSD currently to talk about the SHORT. Needless to say I believe that FED will hike...
Next 24h, the main focus market pay attention is BOE Meeting: a Bank Inflation Report, Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement, and a Speak of Governor Mark Carney. This risk event will decide the move of Sterling in last three months of this year. Very important that we can't ignore. Let me begin with Inflation Report first.The fact is UK Inflation is very...
Last week, after BOJ Meeting, I see the chance to BUY USDJPY is nearly zero. My view shifts from BUY to SHORT. Technical Analysis supports my view. USDJPY bounced from the resistance at 121.50 I draw on the chart and hold below SMA200 I will SHORT USDJPY to 119 level.
Last week, GPBUSD found support at 1.5240. The rally of Sterling is contributed by the US soft data not because UK data. The fact is UK data is not better than US data, because lack of UK data so market chooses US data to react. This week, with data from both US and UK, promise a high volatility of GBPUSD. - BOE Meeting on Thursday and Payrolls on Friday. I...
Next 24h, market pays all attention on two key data: - US GDP - BOJ Meeting. Both risk events are very and extreme improtant to watch. - Today, FED surprised market by leaving the door opens for a possible rate hike on December; depend on data, they will have appropriate action. However, they need a good reason to justify for that action. Data plays the key...
NZDUSD is fighting to find a trend. The fluctuation is not over because market needs a reason to position. USDollar is very favourite, but Kiwi is also a good currency to buy , NZ data is supporting Kiwi. NZDUSD hold below the key resistance 0.6900: It's also 23.6% Fib Retracement I draw on the chart. While strong support is at SMA100: 0.6610 I think to trade...
A sad week for Loonie, BOC maintained their dovish tone and low CPI damaged to Loonie. USDCAD saved from the support 1.2862 and bounced agressively to 1.3200 level. USDCAD now stops at Kumo cloud;however, I believe It couldn't hold USDCAD below it. While RSI indicator show that it moved above the resistance I show on the chart, more rally is supported to...
- Fundamental Analysis ECB last week sent a strong signal to FX market that they willingly act if necessary. Market chose a trend for EURUSD : Bearish trend. EURUSD fell more than 350 pips and now test 1.100 level; this is a strong support ( two month low) . This week, the main focus are: - US GDP - US Durable Good Orders - EZ CPI I analiyze data in my...
Last week, I was wrong when I chose SHORT USDJPY while the fact was LONG. This week, the main focus is BOJ Meeting on Thursday. I very sympathize PM Shinzo Abe about his effort to improve Japan economy, but It seems Japan economy is lossing momentum despite PM Shinzo Abe and BOJ used three arrows called Abenomics. Low inlfation and low export damaged to his...