TheCaffeinatedTrader

TheCaffeinatedTrader

Heading into BOC rate decision tomorrow with some analysts forecasting an earlier than expected rate hike, we see USD/CAD rally up into the neckline of that head and shoulders pattern it broke through last week. Partial profits were taken on Thursday last week and now I will be adding back on to this short position. Looking deeper at the rate decision... it has...

TheCaffeinatedTrader

Pattern hasn't broken the neckline as of yet for confirmation of the longer run swing on this trade... But... if you got in early maybe near the topside resistance we had at 1.29 - 1.295 or even the right shoulder rejection we saw last Thursday at that 1.28 handle, maybe consider holding this a bit longer. Cheers!

TheCaffeinatedTrader

Gold has just pushed down into our 1750 target area from the earlier post. Now we do expect to see some accumulation at this area before a mark up higher to our longterm projections. Wait and see how the accumulation phase plays out before trying to get in long, especially after the strong sell off we just experienced. - Price pushed back into our 1700 - 1800...

TheCaffeinatedTrader

DXY The most common index used by many traders would be DXY. This is considered to be the go to index in interpreting USD strength against the other major currencies. When looking at this particular index, the first thing we should know is, what currencies are actually in the basket and how it is calculated. Below are the currencies included and the percentage...

TheCaffeinatedTrader

- Price is currently getting squeezed between my moving averages. - Top side trend was respected and fell from that level - Trend line plotted from lows also shows a break in trend. - Price formed a head and shoulders pattern that broke out to the downside today. - Price has retraced back into the 50 - 61.8% retracement level of todays range. - Looking for the...

TheCaffeinatedTrader Updated 

- GU made it to the top of the range today after a VERY strong bullish move. - Most recent highs were liquidated but still holding our highs from last week. - Session POC has been moved up to the top of the range indicating Big Money is back defending that level. - Time based Volume also indicating this as we see the highest volume node at the high of the day. -...

TheCaffeinatedTrader

- Price was in a strong downtrend since the start of November to beginning of January - New year came along, Dollar has been consolidating/accumulating just slightly higher than the lows of the downtrend. - Bears have made multiple attempts at breaking the lows of the range but have not succeeded thus far. - If we do bounce from the bottom again, pay attention the...

TheCaffeinatedTrader

Note the similarities in price action within the highlighted areas at the levels plotted... now, let's see what happened at those times and what similarities we can find in the fundamentals. The Great Crash of ‘79 The Dow Jones Industrial index peaked at $897 on Friday October 5th, 1979. On Saturday the Federal Reserve and Chairman Paul Volcker adopted new...

TheCaffeinatedTrader

- The trend line is the monthly downtrend that was broken at the end of July, 2020. Price moved nearly 750 pips from that point. - Price reached the monthly resistance and has since corrected back from that zone. - Moving averages have crossed signalling trend change. - Price has created a new lower high last week and a new low earlier this week also signalling...

TheCaffeinatedTrader

Daily Chart - Forming a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline at 1.35 - Price broke below the 233 period VWEMA, came back retested and rejected it - Price rejected the 1.37 even within the 50 - 618 retrace level - Trend RSI broke and has stayed below the 50% level Weekly Chart - Major support was broken a few weeks back - Price has since came back to...

TheCaffeinatedTrader

- D1 Reached resistance - Way overextended the VWMA on both D1 and H4 - H4 RSI been overbought for a couple of days now - Rising prices with low volume Short term target set at 24500

TheCaffeinatedTrader

- Double top on H1 broke the valley low - H4 "double top" was strong rejection candles with long top wicks - hit previous structure level on the 4 hour chart - Moved back up to retest the valley support, now acting as resistance - Doji candle printed on both H1 and H4 at resistance - High volume bars on the most recent move down off our highs - RSI was heavily...

TheCaffeinatedTrader Updated 

Longs Closed... Entered into shorts: - Trend line and structure resistance - High volume at previous stated levels hinting at sellers suppressing prices - Broke minor uptrend - Price between 618 and 786 retrace - Monthly pivot point - RSI and MACD divergence - Double top will be confirmed when it breaks the valley

TheCaffeinatedTrader Updated 

Double top broke valley and retested... rejected with trend break confirmation. First Targets - 1.088 @ minor support Second Targets - 1.08 @ major support

TheCaffeinatedTrader Updated 

- Double bottom on major support zone - Break of trend line with retest and rejection off trend and minor support First Targets - 1.403 Second Targets - 1.411

TheCaffeinatedTrader

Gold is looking more and more everyday as if it wants to fall. A nice looking double top is beginning to form on the weekly chart.. still early and not confirmed yet, but definitely something to begin watching. More aggressive traders may want to start entering small positions at this point, if we break 1450 the pattern will be completed and additional positions...

TheCaffeinatedTrader

Historically we can see here that Gold has outperformed in the months of December, January, and February. Looking at current TA on multiple timeframes and Fundamental factors underpinning price, this year should be no different.

TheCaffeinatedTrader

Fundamentals are coming out strong for bull momentum with lack of positive trade negotiations and added fuel to the fire with the bill set by President Trump for Hong Kong Protestors and further restrictions on Huawei citing national security concerns. Additional tariffs to be struck on December 15th with China saying that and past tariffs must be removed to...