This_Guhy

This_Guhy Wizard

I have been doing everything I can to get the word out that BTCUSD is in a falling wedge. The center line of the wedge held as resistance and we are going to most likely move across the bottom of the wedge before we pop out. The chart is the chart. I have gone over the longs and the shorts, I haveA falling wedge shows a overall bullish interplay between buyers...

This_Guhy Wizard Updated 

First things first: trendline isn’t valid unless it has three points of contact. In lower timeframes we like to look for a line acting solely as resistance or solely as support. On larger timeframes a trend line can act initially as resistance that the price action has to fight to break through then as support if the price is retracing (and sometimes that...

This_Guhy Wizard Updated 

First off, why they matter: Every long position has someone who has already bought and is now an obligated seller. Every short position has someone attached to it that has already sold and is now an obligated buyer. So when longs are at or near an all time high it roughly means you have everyone that was going to buy, has already bought, and now they are...

This_Guhy Wizard

I don’t see many people using the Hull MACD, (I usually just call it the H-MAC to distinguish it)) which is a MACD comprised of Hull moving averages rather than exponential moving averages. This post is pretty educational but it sill has an analytical component so I tagged it as analysis. If you have seen some of my HMAC posts before you will recall how I mention...

This_Guhy Wizard Updated 

Ethereum has had a massive uptrend, almost doubling in value in a couple of weeks and I think the time for a retrace is due. The chart on the left show that ETHUSD has been in a falling wedge since early April but has been channeling in and through that wedge since mid-August. The top of the channel and the RSI show clear Hidden Bearish Divergence on the daily...

This_Guhy Wizard Updated 

Pretty simple set up. We have: Falling wedge price currently at resistance bearish divergence on the RSI Topping behavior with a candlewick at a fib extension level & and a developing red candle In with a tight stop right above our previous peak and a take profit near our previous low. I am expecting a rally to the high of the wedge and the price action...

This_Guhy Wizard Updated 

I want to keep this simple and fundamental to help us all see things clearly. And what I want to see clearly is the fact that if BTCUSD isn’t at the bottom, then there is no bottom Our support line is drawn on Bitstamp and is a ray with one point anchored to the bottom of the candle on 27 May 12, and the second point anchored to the close of today. I then...

This_Guhy Wizard Updated 

I am pretty bearish, but as part of my due diligence I was checking out the arguments for going long on ETHUSD and I found a great and fundamental post by Ins1d1a ETHUSD - Weekly RSI bullish divergence fractal. The fellow only has two posts and I a bit worried by a name that could either be a play on “insider” or “insidious” but the price action is the price...

This_Guhy Wizard Updated 

Quick and Simple: We have hidden bearish divergence on this uptrend from just before the drop on the 29th and the recent highs being formed right now. Within the current top that is forming classic bearish divergence. This classic bearish divergence is only visible on the 1h timeframe but combined with the hidden divergence clearly visible on the 12H I am...

This_Guhy Wizard Updated 

Too many times when people see something they don't want to accept they will dismiss the fundamental as being "too simple" and all the thoughts that follow after that are mental gymnastics to avoid the truth of the matter. If you are at all bullish in the macro time frame you, bluntly, are wrong. Fundamental 1: Bearish Divergence on the Monthly Time frame...

This_Guhy Wizard

I have wondered where the money will come from for the next uptrend and in the case of Ethereum I think much of the money will come from bitcoin. There is a lot going on here but all of it is important, and we will go from most important to least important. The black line shows clear bullish divergence between the low in the beginning of March and the current...

This_Guhy Wizard Updated 

The hourly is a pretty low timeframe to be making decisions on but as the triangle gets tighter and tighter we start to run out of the ability to wait for the price action to show divergence on higher time frames. The hidden bearish (low high on the price action but higher high on the oscillator) is subtle on the MACD but pretty clear on the RSI. Hitting...

This_Guhy Wizard

A reminder, hidden bearish divergence is when you get a lower high with the price action but a higher high with the indicator, usually the RSI and MACD. One of the best ways to think about hidden bearish divergence is the indicator has moved up high enough so there is psychologically more room for it to go down. The blue lines show we have clear bearish...

This_Guhy Wizard Updated 

First a primer on divergences: Classic Divergence (Trend Reversal) Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator Hidden (Trend Continuation) Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a...

This_Guhy Wizard Updated 

Lots going on this chart but lets start biggest to smallest. The bold red lines are our support and resistance when plotted on the daily chart, on the log scale. The pierce throughs are wicks on the daily but visible as several candles on the daily. The green circle shows we found support there for two 4H candles before the bottom fell out. What I am looking...

This_Guhy Wizard Updated 

The simplest of all indicators is the CM_Ultimate_MA-MTC-V2, which is a composite of moving averages and turns green when you should go long and turns red when you should sell (or short). During iffy times you can see the CM_ flicker between green and red and as the red arrows will show, that happens most often when the price action is flat and the CM is also...

This_Guhy Wizard Updated 

Really quick and dirty post. We see in April BTCUSD shorts were at their all time high and as the price started to tick up we had a red candlestick develop on the Shorts chart and then we gapped down. What do we see today on the Shorts chart? We are at are second highest level of shorts and we have began to form the red candlestick down. We have knocked on...

This_Guhy Wizard Updated 

BTCUSD has been finding a bottom over the last couple of days and it has been really choppy but we have gotten to a point where I feel about 90% confident that we will see a reversal and an uptrend. Just to make this clear: and UPTREND is not a BULLRUN. We face major overhead resistance at the blue line on the price action. That blue line clearly showed the...