I did a Tradingingview post in June on the Tether paper that showed Tether is being used on less than 1% of hours to prop up the price of BTCUSD and altcoins. I am linking that post and the research article is here: papers.ssrn.com The analysis is pretty simple. We hit a low late June below 6k. We moved up to the falling log resistance line at 8.5K but topped...
As much as we like these assets cannot move in the same direction eternally and based on cryptos annoying habit of having tweezer or bullish engulfing candlesticks bottoms I need to figure out where to take some profits. The major level of significance for over the last year is boldly in orange. The last two times we met that level as resistance we bounced down...
It should be preeminently clear that my overall trend remains bearish after I noticed the hidden bearish divergence that defined this most recent top as we slammed into resistance (drawn on the log chart, otherwise you would think it is a breakout). We went down quite a bit and now it seems we have found a solid chance of capitalizing on a bounce. I want to make...
We see a bearish engulfing candle showing up on the weekly chart and with just over 24h till midnight UTC no one in their right minds should think that is going to change. We see the MACD was converging on the weekly chart but it is becoming clear we will either fail to break through entirely now or we will only have a token breakthrough and then crash back down....
Real quick post becuase the chart says it all. It appears that over the last day we have formed a bearish head and shoulders pattern. Because crypto can be unorthodox this is a continuation pattern and not a reversal pattern. BTCUSD slammed down so hard against resistance that formed a head and shoulders instead of a more typical continuation pattern for stocks...
This is fourth time we see these clear stabs down and a quick recovery and they should give you no faith or confidence that the bulls will recover in the short run. If you are not a skilled scalper focusing on lower timeframes or intraday trading will get you taken to the cleaners. The 1D chart below shows this top has been defined by hidden bearish divergence,...
Bitcoin was born January 2009, which is an important time in the global financial markets. The economy was tanking and to get money flowing the several central banks of the world undertook an economic experiment of global and historical proportions. We will focus on the Fed because ‘Murica. If you read a terms you don’t understand please look it up in Wikipedia...
I am not a moving average guy, but I do know the basics and even more importantly, I have come to start listening to the CM_Ultimate_MA (which I will just shorten to CM_). The CM_ is a composite of all your favorite moving averages (simple, hull, ema, etc) and it will turn green when the balance of moving averages give buy signals and it turns red when the...
Descending triangles are typically bearish continuation patterns when the price slams down against support and bounces (typically three times) less and less before breaking through support. From time to time we see the potential that a descending triangle exist when the price actions slams up mightily against resistance and then comes back down forcefully against...
Real quick and simple post. We see on the daily chart a classic elliot wave bubble popping with bearish divergence and the following beartrap. In the chart below we see a microfractal of the same bubble pop and we didn't even get above the high for the day. Bearish divergence and the bull trap are both in play here and despite this great effort we were not able...
Hidden bearis divergence appears to be coming up on this uptrend for the kill. Just a small primer on divergences which is a difference between the price action and a indicator (RSI or MACD) Normal Divergence (Trend Reversal) Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the...
We see a pretty clear bullish falling wedge on ETH USD that I am going to play very conservatively, with buy stops positioned above support to take me into this position. We have a day tops until this breaks so hopefully ETH USD will stop underperforming compared to BTCUSD. The weekly chart still looks really good for the longs We cannot get a full monthly...
In the related idea I went over why I think IQ will be a great chance to go long on a company that will greatly outperform the market as a whole. If you want to read why I think IQ is a good fundamental bet please read it, as here I am just going over the TA. Please. The 4h chart has been predictive over IQ's short life. The CM_Ultimate has given us...
I still have some very strong bearish tendencies but things are starting to look good for a new uptrend for the next several weeks to a month, such as we had in early April. If we get clearly above 800 we can talk about renaming this uptrend a bull run, and if we get above 1600 we can officially call the bull run. First the daily chart The most simple...
Title basically says it all. We are in a triangle, price action is narrowing and day and swing traders need to decide where their biases are so they can let their winners run if they are right and cut their losses quickly if they are wrong. We have higher highs on the RSI and lower highs on the price action on the 45m time frame. The hidden divergence broke...
It appears to me that for the last 3 days ETHUSD has roughly been moving sideways in this slightly downward channel and it is respecting the pitchfork channels pretty well. We see a strong tendency to the median line and the +/-1 standard deviation lines splitting the channel up. We are having a bearish cross MACD on the 45m timeframe (which was chosen for this...
There has been a lot of conversation about BTCUSD and the Longs approaching a high level so I thought I would look at the short history of BTCUSD Longs on Bitfinex and see if there is anything we can glean. This isn’t a full academic study but my first impressions looking at the data. First a note about these ranges. You cannot anchor them so as you adjust the...
We clearly see a rising wedge developing on ETHUSD and it is my hope that we break down sooner as oppose to later. We are already grinding against support and the MACD certainly makes it look like we could break through any second. But, since this is a rising wedge we could easily see a pump up. If you have a stop between the two resistance lines and we do pump...