It appears to me that for the last 3 days ETHUSD has roughly been moving sideways in this slightly downward channel and it is respecting the pitchfork channels pretty well. We see a strong tendency to the median line and the +/-1 standard deviation lines splitting the channel up. We are having a bearish cross MACD on the 45m timeframe (which was chosen for this post because it gave the best representation of the price action respecting the structure of the pitchfork).
We can throw a pitchfork on BTCUSD but, to me, it doesn't look anywhere as clean as the ETHUSD chart does. I felt I had to be a little creative with placing by price pivots to get that channel to line up properly.
One thing I don't like charting with the pitchfork is it goes on for eternity and I wish we had the ability to add a terminus when we think the channel will end. At this point I think it will be valid for at least one more touch on the lowest support and long term I certainly think ETHUSD will be testing the April low (And I am biased to the notion it will break through). I am still biased bear as I am expecting a bearish cross on the 2D Hull MACD, which means I suspect that if we do break out of the pitchfork it will be downward. The 2D normal MACD bull cross appears to be dead on arrival but we have seen a lot of funky behavior on the 1D timeframes for both ETHUSD and BTCUSD MACDs which is one reason I have not been relying on those timeframes so much for my swing trading.
If you are trying to go long at the bottom of the pitchfork definitely have your stop losses in place. And in case we break out bearish definitely have your stops above the pitchfork if you are going short. The pitchfork basically trades itself.
We can throw a pitchfork on BTCUSD but, to me, it doesn't look anywhere as clean as the ETHUSD chart does. I felt I had to be a little creative with placing by price pivots to get that channel to line up properly.
One thing I don't like charting with the pitchfork is it goes on for eternity and I wish we had the ability to add a terminus when we think the channel will end. At this point I think it will be valid for at least one more touch on the lowest support and long term I certainly think ETHUSD will be testing the April low (And I am biased to the notion it will break through). I am still biased bear as I am expecting a bearish cross on the 2D Hull MACD, which means I suspect that if we do break out of the pitchfork it will be downward. The 2D normal MACD bull cross appears to be dead on arrival but we have seen a lot of funky behavior on the 1D timeframes for both ETHUSD and BTCUSD MACDs which is one reason I have not been relying on those timeframes so much for my swing trading.
Comment:
Micro-timeframe (5m) confirms the internal structure of the pitchfork that makes it a pitchfork, and not just price action bumbling along sideways. If you move through the timeframes you will see a lot of respect for the structure of the pitchfork.
sidewaysh
Looking at a higher time frame this Hull MACD formation and the price action would suggest another breakdown resembling the breakdown that lead to this sideways motion (roughly 10%) so we might see an invalidation of this channel quicker than I originally thought. The key signal I will be looking for is if we see a clean bearish cross on the 3h MACD or another bounce. We also see more bullish divergence build up on the 3h chart, which would mean the price would still reach a lower relative low and the MACD reaches a higher high. If that plays out then the channel is good for the original 3-5 days I was thinking it would be valid for.
sidewaysh
Looking at a higher time frame this Hull MACD formation and the price action would suggest another breakdown resembling the breakdown that lead to this sideways motion (roughly 10%) so we might see an invalidation of this channel quicker than I originally thought. The key signal I will be looking for is if we see a clean bearish cross on the 3h MACD or another bounce. We also see more bullish divergence build up on the 3h chart, which would mean the price would still reach a lower relative low and the MACD reaches a higher high. If that plays out then the channel is good for the original 3-5 days I was thinking it would be valid for.
Comment:
Hidden bearish divergence has set in upon the top of the pitchfork and I suspect it will take us at least to the bottom of the pitchfork. I would hope ultimately that it will cause us to break out of the pitchfork and hit a new low but I will take what I can get. If the triangle and pitchfork work together we would see the price action break down roughly on the orange arrow, but that may be asking for a bit much.
Comment:
I think we just saw the needle pop.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion
First ETHUSD
We see a great respect of the price action for the upper resistance line of the pitchfork and I suspect that we will see the price of ETHUSD slip, following BTCUSD slipping. I like to chart patterns on ETHUSD but a lot of time the indicators on BTCUSD drive the market
BTCUSD
I used this pump as a chance to refine my BTCUSD pitchfork but really, not much was done. I know the 15m is a micro-timeframe that non many people use but if I see the RSI respecting the overbought or oversold conditions on the 15m then it is a controlling time frame for me. Once the RSI starts running across the top or bottom I need to change time periods.
This RSI peak did get us a higher price than the previous RSI spike and generally that would incline me to swing trade bullish but the controlling structure I am operating in right now is the pitchfork, and it is holding strong on the top two coins I am charting. Also when you look at this RSI spike and the previous three the trend looks somewhat dismal for bears.