Today's close if below the black rising trend line would signal a short-term top is in place at 2401 and would open doors for a sell-off to 2300 levels. On the higher side, only a daily close above 2378 would revive the bullish view
Euro's recovery from ysday's low of 1.0569 followed by a move above the rising trend line hurdle today suggests the currency could extend gains to 1.0650, although the gains could be short lived as 5-DMA and 10-DMA are still sloping downwards and the daily RSI is bearish. On the downside, only a break below 1.0569 would signal continuation of the retreat from 1.0906.
The odds of the oil prices breaching the resistance at $56.25 (falling trend line - red) are low, given the daily RSI is near the overbought territory. The RSI was last overbought in June 2016. Since then the prices have either turned lower or we have had bearish divergence with RSI between 60-70. Hence, caution is advised. Fresh bids are seen only after two...
The falling tops formation the daily chart followed by a close below 50-DMA on Friday has opened doors for a sell-off to 1.23 (falling trend line support). On the higher side, only a daily close above 1.2477 (Friday’s high) would revive bullish view.
Gold’s fourth failure to hold above 200-DMA in two weeks, despite US-Syria tensions coupled with the fact that Friday’s daily close was below 200-DMA suggests the prices could be heading lower to support at $1239. On a larger scheme of things, the outlook would turn bearish only after a daily close below $1239.
Despite the falling top formation it is too early to say the bulls have lost control. Only a daily close below the rising trend line would signal a top is in place at 1.3535 (Mar 9 high). The pair could then proceed to re-test 1.3124 (Jan 31 low). On the other hand, only a daily close above the descending trend line would revive the bullish view.
Thursday’s rebound from the head and shoulder neckline followed by rebound from the sub-50-DMA levels today suggests the bears may have run out of steam. A daily close above the rising trend line hurdle of 7360 would open doors for revisit to record highs around 7450. On the downside, only a break below H&S neckline would revive bearishness.
Pair's recovery from the post-NFP low of 110.09 to 110.70 suggests the pair could have bottomed out and is likely to take out the descending trend line (red) and test 112.20 levels (double bottom neckline) next week. The 4-hour 50-MA has bottomed out as well and that adds credence to the bullish price action.
The descending trend line from 2011 high and 2012 high is seen offering resistance around $1275 levels. March 2016 high stands at $1284. The fact that the Fed is moving towards reduction of its balance sheet size and the monthly 50-MA is sloping downwards tells me that the yellow metal may not be able to sustain gains over and above $1260 levels for a long time....
Pair's failure to strengthen in Asia (EUR is a funding currency) despite risk-off followed by a drop to 1.0626 (100-DMA) coupled with a bearish RSI suggests the support at 1.0590 could be put to test. A daily close below the same would signal the rising trend from the low of 1.0341 has ended. On the higher side, only a daily close above 1.0689 would revive bullishness.
Lower tops formation amid bearish 100-DMA and 200-DMA crossover, coupled with the bearish RSI suggests the share prices is likely to test and breach support at 4535 (previous descending trend line, in which case the major support at 4300 could be put to test.
Today’s rebound from near 110.00 is the fourth in the last two weeks. This suggests the spot has found a temp bottom just above 110.00 levels and could head higher to a double bottom neckline resistance seen around 112.20. On a larger scheme of things, the bulls are seen regaining control only after the spot retakes the rising trend line coming from Brexit...
Yesterday’s bearish inverted hammer candle and a failure to hold above the 50-DMA and 100-DMA suggest the bulls need to be cautious. A bearish follow through today would put in place a falling top formation. That would be followed by a bearish 50-DMA and 100-DMA crossover and re-test of support at $49.59 (Mar 16 high).
Multiple daily candles with long tails at the key 100-DMA support despite hawkish Fed and dovish comments from Draghi this Thursday morning suggests the currency pair is poised for a recovery. The immediate upside could be capped around 1.0740-1.0750.
A weekly close below 2.3% would open up downside towards 2.0% (target as per measured height method)
Rebound from 110.27 (Apr 4 low) if followed by a bullish break from the falling wedge formation would open doors for a rally to double bottom neckline level of 112.20. Only a daily close above 112.20 would signal trend reversal – end of the retreat from 115.50 (Mar 10 high).
Rebound from the 50-DMA on the back of a strong UK service sector PMI data if followed by a daily close above 1.25 (psychological support + trend line resistance) would open doors for a revisit to 1.2615 levels. On the downside, only a daily close below 50-DMA would signal continuation of the retreat from 1.2615 levels.
The mining-heavy index failed to cut through – resistance offered by the rising trend line drawn from Brexit referendum low and descending trend line drawn from Mar 21 high and Mar 30 high). The failure to take out the key trend line hurdle and rejection at Jan 16 high of 7354 if followed by a break below 7321 would open doors for a sell-off to the head and...