Vanillasagna

Vanillasagna Updated 

Is BTC back? BTC is breaking out of the down trend from the April 2021 highs and it appears the genesis fib levels are still being respected with a floor established at $29,890 (1.618 fib level). I've had a target of a 2.618 fib retest ($46,443) for a while - not 100% sure about new ATHs just yet but watch this space. Weekly timeframe below for larger view of...

Vanillasagna Updated 

BTC has broken up out of the downtrend and indicators on 4hr timeframe also confirm long signal. Looking at larger timeframes a bounce seems overdue and the recent sell off is over-extended. BTC has also found support at the 1.618 fibonacci level from the previous bull cycle & retracement. Target - $46,500 - 2.618 fib level I'm not calling for new ATHs just...

Vanillasagna Updated 

Nas has broken out of the down trend, fallen back down to retest previous resistance, and bounced which is bullish. Target 13700's sometime this week - a retest of a key horizontal level where support turned to resistance. 12hr slightly bigger picture alternative view - the September lows TL remains intact and the road to new ATHs should resume above 13800 in...

Vanillasagna Updated 

Alt Season 2.0? Could it be? BTC is stalling as of late and seems to be losing momentum whilst a lot of money is once again flowing into altcoins. BTC Dominance (BTC.D) confirms this and technical analysis shows it has broken down a key trendline. I'll also be watching for a break down of 57 horizontal support level.

Vanillasagna

The US Dollar Index looks poised to continue its downward trajectory in 2021 and Asset Price Inflation will only continue - as long as DXY keeps dropping I will remain long equities, crypto, commodities, etc. Technical Analysis: In March 2021 DXY retested the bottom of the rising channel it broke out of last year and rejected, reversing back down as expected....

Vanillasagna Updated 

Markets are ready to roll over and I have been looking at the short side last few days as in my opinion risk/reward favours down at these levels. Looking for a pullback to 20MA at the minimum and ideally to 50MA. Imo a healthy pullback is overdue before new reaching new highs - 5% or so, maybe as much as 10% if this turns into a larger selloff but my targets are...

Vanillasagna Updated 

Bull case gives a target for longs of 4113 - at 1.618 fib extension of February 2021 correction and top of ascending broadening wedge. Could see this play out as quick as this week or next week. Still not 100% convinced the bear case is over given US Dollar index (DXY) price action and Bond yield (US10Y / US30Y) price action of late - but if it is this is the...

Vanillasagna Updated 

Market is overheated - US Dollar Index is reversing and fears of inflation have been weighing on Bond markets in recent weeks. IF the 2020 lows trend line breaks down we may see a more pronounced pullback - targets below: TP1 - 3830-3815 - bottom of ascending broadening wedge (generally a bearish pattern so if this breaks down further targets are below) ...

Vanillasagna Updated 

DXY appears to have bottomed and has broken out of the 2020 downtrend and also the 92.25 key horizontal level. We are likely to see a retest of the bottom of the multi-year uptrend channel to 93.5 - 94 which would likely translate into a further pullback in equities & crypto. I would like to see the US indices pull back to their 200 day MA. However in my...

Vanillasagna Updated 

Chart self explanatory

Vanillasagna Updated 

DXY daily bearish engulfing candle & clear rejection at downtrend line. DXY has also rejected off previous 2020 yearly low just like in September 2020. This as the market is pricing in Biden's new $1.9 trillion stimulus plan which is getting closer to approval. Any delays in stimulus talks will likely cause a reversal in sentiment and the US Dollar...

Vanillasagna Updated 

The BTC break out is sucking up liquidity from alt coins and looks set to continue to do so - when BTC makes big moves money tends to leave alt coins and flow back into Bitcoin. Alt season isn't over but it may be taking a short break...

Vanillasagna Updated 

After 5 weeks of consolidation, Bitcoin has finally broken out of the descending wedge (and overall wedges using wicks) to the upside. Head and shoulders neckline couldn't be broken down despite multiple attempts. This level also coincided with the 1.618 ($29,890) of the overall retrace of the December 2017 highs. Added to my core holding at 1.618 fib level...