austrian_trader

austrian_trader 89 views ・

Volume is sloughing off and the RSI is curling upwards but the downward pressure on BTC doesn't seem to be letting up and that will weigh on the other cryptos. There is a longer running descending triangle on the daily, so a short target could be placed between $150 and $155, but the ATR suggests a target near $170 is more conservative.

austrian_trader 82 views ・

A short entry here is slightly premature but one to watch as we've rolled back under the 200 day moving average and having rejected the 100 day. This descending channel has been in play since June so a target near $6.7k is plausible though perhaps ambitious. The 50 day moving average at $8.6k seems likely to be tested by this weekend (if not sooner)...

austrian_trader 97 views ・

ET has missed their earnings estimates all year with another announcement due today which sets up a nice opportunity for a strangle. If they whiff again expect the downtrend to pickup more steam and drive price at least to the bottom of this descending wedge. On the flip side if they manage to surprise, that could trigger a steep rally for this company which...

austrian_trader 55 views ・

Near the top of a descending channel and also challenging the 100 day moving average. Volume is relatively weak but the RSI is starting to curl up again so a push towards the $10k level is feasible if it can rally over the 100 day which is sitting just shy of $9.6k. Thing to watch will be either a rejection of the long running trend line from June or break out...

austrian_trader 41 views ・

As much as it doesn't make sense (Repo, global dollar liquidity shortage, worsening macro outlook) neither the DXY nor the S&P 500 seems to care. So, if reality has not yet decided to assert itself in the market, then the DXY is probably headed down to test the bottom of this channel at 96.60.

austrian_trader 40 views ・

The DXY has broken under it's 200 day moving average which is of course a bearish signal but is this the start of a new trend, are we about to start a downtrend in earnest? Or are just going to test the bottom of this long running channel from the beginning of this year. I think the answer depends on whether or not the Fed's "NotQE" has done enough to resolve...

austrian_trader 28 views ・

With the Fed restarting QE...sorry, "NotQE" the dollar bull market is going to start facing some headwinds. Monetary policy has a variable lag so the exact timing of this is obviously hard to pin down but look for a sustained break under the 200 day moving average and/or a fall underneath the long running channel extending back to January. And an important note...

austrian_trader 126 views ・

Trading these odd pairings can be tough but with the ECB set to destroy the value of the Euro further in about a week and the algo triggering a short signal, might be worth a small play. Volume is starting to pick up, and momentum to the downside has plenty of room to run even if it's flattening out a bit today.

austrian_trader 48 views ・

Another test of this 98.35 level taht the DXY has flirted with, breached, and then fallen back under three times this year. Is #4 finally the DXY bull run to 104? I don't know, but I'd wait to see if it can close above this level *and defend it* before taking a position either way.

austrian_trader 69 views ・

Admittedly, I've not made a good call on the Lira so far this year. Fundamentally the Lira is way overvalued at ~5.60, it's probably overvalued even at $6 but the CBRT has found clever ways to prop up the currency through swaps (and a billion or so in borrowed Yuan). all that said, the algo is signalling long here, so I'll be taking a smaller position to balance...

austrian_trader 33 views ・

Things don't look like they'll be improving for GBP on a macro level anytime soon, and the algo generated a short signal for this pair on Friday's close. It's true the RSI is under 30 here and many interpret that as "oversold" but in Spot ForEx "oversold" isn't really a thing, so it's sufficient that the RSI is under 50 to give an approximation of the strength of...

austrian_trader 62 views ・

I'd personally want to wait for the Friday close but if the DXY can close above $98.35 this breakout may have some legs. The 25bps cut seems to have disappointed the market and the Fed's jawboning that this isn't the start of an easing cycle (lol, just like we were a long way from neutral I'm sure eh' Jay?) might give this a bump. #dollarmilkshaketheory ?

austrian_trader 28 views ・

Staying away from USD pairs during Fed meeting week. Possible entry here on a NZDJPY short. ATR would put a T/P level at the 61% Fibo easily within reach and based on the weekly we might extend further down

austrian_trader 36 views ・

This is possibly a decent entry. The weekly is still in a clear downtrend, and the daily is signaling an entry here. In support of the technicals, the Fed cutting rates by 25bps should see the Yen strengthen somewhat as the carry trade becomes less appealing and global macro data continues to deteriorate so the risk-off trades here still seem likely which is...

austrian_trader 94 views ・

The technical rule set I've set up hasn't triggered a long call just yet but, if the USD can close above the trend line at ~5.715 it will. With the CBRT announcing it's rate decision in two days this could be the start of a substantial move up given the heightened political tensions between Turkey and the EU over drilling in Cyprus and looming US sanctions for...

austrian_trader 103 views ・

With the ECB and Fed easing monetary conditions further in the coming weeks (i.e. currency devaluations) it's hard to be too bearish on bitcoin. No long signal yet on this one though but one to watch. Of course if the Fed delivers a hawkish surprise BTC faces significant downside on a strengthening dollar so don't pull the trigger too early on this trade.

austrian_trader 18 views ・

Probably a little early to enter here (as volume is still weak!) but one to watch. I would look for a close below 82.45 on the daily or for price action to fall under the rising wedge with a pickup in volume.

austrian_trader 112 views ・

Em currencies area dangerous game of course, but USDTRY may be one to watch. With the CBRT likely to cut rates (or else face the wrath of Erdogan...again) and Turkey doing everything in its power to become an international pariah (Cyprus drilling, Russian military equipment purchases) this may turn into a perfect technical set up for a sharp reversal. Though we...