austrian_trader

austrian_trader

Whether you're doing the continuous contract or the December contract, lots of technical warning signs here. We aren't beearish or bullish just yet in the near term--look either for a collapse under the 50dma and a close underneath the rising wedge pattern ES has made on the weekly chart before rolling short or a breakout and defense of the upper trendline of...

austrian_trader

Perhaps time to short, at least tactically. The Russell has fallen below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages and seeming confirmed a breakdown below a descending triangle (sloppily drawn) the began to form at the beginning of the month. On a daily chart of standard candles there is a gap to fill around 1423, perhaps we are headed there now. A trailing stop...

austrian_trader

Definitely looks like a break out, though volume is a tad underwhelming. Fundamentals for gold however, given the central bank flailing occurring globally, could not be stronger. Still a long position here looks promising but beware another margin call type event if we have a repeat of March!

austrian_trader

Clearer on the daily chart how XAG looks to have broken out of a continuation pattern while the 4h shows a successful retest and okay volume. A long here is appealing assuming we don't get another massive sell off in equities that causes gold and silver to sell off to cover margin calls. An leveraged long play here may be appealing with a stop-loss just under...

austrian_trader

Potential long here. Same rules as always--stop loss under the 10dma (or hedge this, maybe long oil if that's your play). First target would be the 200dma at .9035 or so.

austrian_trader

Silver has been struggling at ~$18.32 for over a month but today's breakout seems to be on some strength. Before entering you may want to wait for a test around $18.50 or even at the $18.32 level again. On the other hand, Covid seems like it's going to get worse before it gets better and that may send PMs higher in the short term. I'd either hedge this by being...

austrian_trader

Given the Fed's relentless pumping it's hard to be bearish on bitcoin, and we may have a fresh break out here. Now this is a touch early, the algo likes it and there's what appears to be a break out above a descending trend-line BUT...that trend line has yet to be tested, and we are still well below the 50, 100, and 200 day moving averages. Still, if this is a...

austrian_trader

With the issues in South Africa ongoing, and the generally bullishness in the wider PM market (even if gold and silver are taking a breather here) this may be a good entry. There has been a habit of lower highs and lower los since September when the initial PM bull run backed off a bit so a conservative target for XPT is around $950, more aggressively the $982...

austrian_trader

It has not been a good year to go short on the S&P 500 (or really a good decade) but, and I say this with some hesitation, perhaps it is time. Right now, I don't expect this to be anything but a pullback to the 50 day moving average (and thus breaking underneath the top of the long running megaphone pattern the fintwit bears post ad-nauseum). If the 50 day...

austrian_trader

Volume is sloughing off and the RSI is curling upwards but the downward pressure on BTC doesn't seem to be letting up and that will weigh on the other cryptos. There is a longer running descending triangle on the daily, so a short target could be placed between $150 and $155, but the ATR suggests a target near $170 is more conservative.

austrian_trader

A short entry here is slightly premature but one to watch as we've rolled back under the 200 day moving average and having rejected the 100 day. This descending channel has been in play since June so a target near $6.7k is plausible though perhaps ambitious. The 50 day moving average at $8.6k seems likely to be tested by this weekend (if not sooner)...

austrian_trader

ET has missed their earnings estimates all year with another announcement due today which sets up a nice opportunity for a strangle. If they whiff again expect the downtrend to pickup more steam and drive price at least to the bottom of this descending wedge. On the flip side if they manage to surprise, that could trigger a steep rally for this company which...

austrian_trader

Near the top of a descending channel and also challenging the 100 day moving average. Volume is relatively weak but the RSI is starting to curl up again so a push towards the $10k level is feasible if it can rally over the 100 day which is sitting just shy of $9.6k. Thing to watch will be either a rejection of the long running trend line from June or break out...

austrian_trader

As much as it doesn't make sense (Repo, global dollar liquidity shortage, worsening macro outlook) neither the DXY nor the S&P 500 seems to care. So, if reality has not yet decided to assert itself in the market, then the DXY is probably headed down to test the bottom of this channel at 96.60.

austrian_trader

The DXY has broken under it's 200 day moving average which is of course a bearish signal but is this the start of a new trend, are we about to start a downtrend in earnest? Or are just going to test the bottom of this long running channel from the beginning of this year. I think the answer depends on whether or not the Fed's "NotQE" has done enough to resolve...

austrian_trader

With the Fed restarting QE...sorry, "NotQE" the dollar bull market is going to start facing some headwinds. Monetary policy has a variable lag so the exact timing of this is obviously hard to pin down but look for a sustained break under the 200 day moving average and/or a fall underneath the long running channel extending back to January. And an important note...

austrian_trader

Trading these odd pairings can be tough but with the ECB set to destroy the value of the Euro further in about a week and the algo triggering a short signal, might be worth a small play. Volume is starting to pick up, and momentum to the downside has plenty of room to run even if it's flattening out a bit today.

austrian_trader

Another test of this 98.35 level taht the DXY has flirted with, breached, and then fallen back under three times this year. Is #4 finally the DXY bull run to 104? I don't know, but I'd wait to see if it can close above this level *and defend it* before taking a position either way.