i think this ones pretty simple. we can get whatever kind of home price report feasible, and the result is technical daily continuation to the downside. this can go one of two ways; bad, and worse.
no really, this thing is set to roar. big rigs, big pigs, young hogs and motor fog. letterr rrrrrrip! were down near the bottom of the envelope, were way oversold, and the sectir is acting defensively in rotation with a bear market. id like to revisit the top of this rectangle and then dump again 🤷
this bounce in tech is kicking off the morning, but its not rocketing to new highs, and in this macro environment im not changing from bear bias totale. i will consider 4hr longs taking profit into pivot or upper smart money concepts profile area resistance. remember to reenter short on bear momo.
with micron reporting today, and the semiconductor industry technically poised to bounce, if tech starts to back track on the bears stuff like this should lead the bull snap back.
dollar yen is getting absolutely demolished. boj is structuring the slaughter of yen, and its having tremendous consequences. look for this to continue.
broader market etf favorite SPY should lead the market lower soon. credit flow in favor of selling equities. largest cap AAPL should accep melt down youtu.be this is a really good video on the topin from yesterday afternoon tue. 20th dec. 2022
im in favor of smashind long term bond yield curve, and inverting the front years more for obvious reasons, namely boj inflation/interest rate planning for example. the bottom is obviously not here for TLT, but i would look towards these boxes in this order.
and rally in discretionary over staples is going to be met with selling. this is the santa rally that never came.
this this aint going nowhere. weve tried the idea of crypto going to 0. this is money that will be used forever. i have no problem $ cost averaging in, and making a passive investment, especially where gbtc is available. lowest im looking at is 16,200, highs im looking at are around 18,600. i like this as an asset any time broader bear market extremes are present.
vix is a black cloud over the heads of spx bounce longs. ahead of any upward move in funds like xlf, xle, spy, qqq resistance, if a breakout in uvxy starts i would look for a major run up to fib fan and trend extend highs.
its the only game in town. its huge. its soaking up loads of dead cash. its got a lovely name. long.
dumb money inflows. value area high resistance below breakout point. value low near momentum breakdown. bearish divergence. dont buy this dumpster fire unless you enjoy smelling like burnt garbage!
its not an error. the nadaraya watson weekly envelope has never behaved this way in the history of price. i think we could see $5.89, and then after we blast out the problem area im predicting a collapse like never before seen. perhaps we wind up a penny stock.
it is one of the largest non-us companies. it has a great name. bull.
we gotta rethink this whole thing. inflation hasnt peaked. trust me, im a fast-food employee.
spx futures 4000 has gone from a psychological level to a very important technical level. auto fib extend and auto vwap are telling me we have retraced enough for 4000 or just above to be stiff resistance in different paths or areas marked out with brush or horizontal lines.
if we hold this uptrend on the 1 minute or we loose it and regain it holding these lows we end up over 18k. the last resistance is the higher pivot and the lower pivot is the last 1 monute low. over 17k roughly is the level to long, while normally in this beararket 17k is a huge sell the rip level.
this strat has a high reliability giving signals. every time spx goes far outside the envelope the index corrects to estimate sometimes crashing down to sss ma or demand zone (the last time it touched that was 1929). if we stay above upper envelope and estimate we could enter a broader matket recovery, but if we see continued downside we are headed much lower.