Prepare your dry powder because we will be buying oil soon. Just like in 2016: These were great times. I think this will be repeated soon. Stay tuned.
Today on the daily basis we broke below the 1000 SMA. We have the Bollinger Crash signal, TSI at extreme levels. And the FED finally throwing 1 trillion dollar on the market... The weekly chart also interesting with a break below the 200 SMA. I'm waiting for the weekly close above the 200 SMA. (above 2640$) This is the time when you can try to catch the...
After Friday's drop I started to analyze Natural Gas with watching the fundamentals much closer. Cycles alone are simply not enough for predicting future price in this volatile commodity. Earlier this year I posted this idea : I still think that we printed the 3 year cycle low back in August.I updated a bit the idea chart - as I was early when I was waiting for...
Day 8 and we are still at no man's land. If this is a new interemdiate cycle it's starting very weak. That's the main reason that I think we are still in the last IC which started on the 2nd of May. We also lost the chance to have a medium long intermediate cycle ending on the 19th November. It seems we are left translating in this last daily cycle and going to...
This trade is based on my cycle count and the overbought indicators. Earlier today we printed a swing on the daily chart. On the hourly chart we are just back testing the 50 MA and it seems a good place to try a short position: I will not set a stop loss : if I feel the trade is going against us I will post a Trade closed manually message My target is the...
"Arctic blast could break 200 records as historic 'Siberian express' brings cold front" This is what I was waiting for. We printed a daily key reversal today. I 'm posting this idea today because I think a long entry today or early tomorrow will be profitable in the following 2-3 weeks. On the 11th of October we printed a DCL . The first daily cycle was 49...
A few important happenings in NatGas today, so I decided to update. First of all the first daily cycle is right translating: From this point we can be sure : ICL was on the 5th of August. The probability is high we printed a multi year low ( probably a 3 year cycle low) I've mentioned this in a previous idea: The first daily cycle low occured on the 11th...
*** This is not a call for a new short trade. It's an update for a previous idea *** We have 2 important news I'm always watching : FOMC and NFP. We have both this week... As I've mentioned in the previous idea time wise it was too early for an ICL in gold on the 1st of October. After 2 extremely long intermediate cycles there was a chance for an ICL at 108...
At this point I think the ICL will continue and we will drop below the October 1 low (1458$). Bear etail traders are totally confused after the perfect head and shoulders pattern broke down but isntead of goin glower we just negated the neckline. Now bulls think that it's a flag and we are going to break above 1520 soon. We are too late in the intermediate cycle...
We have a swing today in oil. Yesterday and the day before yesterday we had a Bollinger Band crash signal just like on the 7th of August. The chance is high that for a few days we are going higher and maybe can tag the upper line of the range. Watch the RSI and the Stoch RSI for exiting this trade. When we get overbought I will exit the trade. ( Both are...
... and if oil goes stocks can go up too. The crash didn't come this year either. I was successfully shorting short term the stock market, playing TVIX and SPX shorts. The cycles are still working very well here and the system says we have a DCL in place. I think S&P will run to or above 3000 in the following few weeks. RSI , Slow Stoch, Stoch RSI are turning up...
As we are getting close to the winter I'm also watching the Natural Gas December and January futures as price most probably will peak at the end of the year. Yesterday's chart was very interesting in both. Though we lost both the 50 and 100 SMA I think price finally is ready to bounce again. The decline was much more severe than I was waiting for. (Fibonacci...
On the 5th of August NatGas printed a multi year low. 28 +1 day later we tagged the 200 SMA Before I start the update , I suggest you to read this idea from April: I was a bit early there, but actually nothing has changed: we started a new 3 year cycle. And in this 3 year cycle I think NatGas is going to break above 5$ and probably will break the resistance at...
After the drone attacks oil opened with a gap on Monday morning, but today instead of going higher it started to try to fill the gap again. It also break below Monday mornings low so the chance is pretty high that it's going to drop to 54,84 and fill the gap. There is also a chance that it's going to tag the bottom of the range at 53$. Today's volume is pretty...
Fed lowers interest rate by a quarter-point, many on panel see another cut this year. 0.25 today , one more cut this year. Market is not happy with this so I think volatility will come back and the stock market drops into its DCL in the following days. Time to load up up with some TVIX shares.
RSI is getting close to the oversold territory first time in 5 months. But I don't think the drop is over yet. This summer gold broke out of the multi year consolidation proving that we are in a bull market. The multi year bear market ended in 2015 December . The consolidation tried the traders' patience in the last three years but now we know this is a bull...
I think the GDX rally is done too. All the indicators are showing divergencies in GDX. It rallied almost to the 2016 highs... We will get a pinbar ( inverted hammer or shooting star ) on the weekly chart. The weekly chart's indicators need to tag the oversold territory in this decline. It might close the gap at 24 -24.56 or might test breakout at 23.67$.
... and the junior miners will not be an exception too... If the sector is going down the juniors will drop too. We have the same indicator divergences: GDXJ was underperforming in this intermediate cycle. While GDX almost tagged the 2016 highs GDXJ was not even close to it.