Gold is holding up quite well today despite the strong dollar and the weak euro. One could think the reason because gold is ignoring the dollar strength. I think gold is just propped up to let smartmoney exit their miners positions ahead of the holiday weekend. The dollar will break out next week and the euro is heading lower . This will move gold into...
Why the previous long idea is so interesting....? I highlighted by red arrows the 3 year cycle lows. There was a one in 2006 Sept, the next 2009 Sept, then 2012 April, and 2016 March... And I think the next one is here in 2019 April.... On the monthly chart the bear started in 2006. The first multi year cycle printed the low in 2006 September. The second one broke...
In the previous idea I just closed the hedges a few days ago - and we are long again - I launch a new long idea because the setup is offering a brand new long entry here. On May 23 we had an intermediate cycle low and a daily cycle low. Before that low every time price tagged the 100 SMA it dropped and made a lower low. But after the last break above the...
Everything that went up comes down sooner or later this planet. It's a sure thing just like the cycles. When price is starting to move down into the DCL the first red day of the decline usually has a 50% pullback. So most probably we will tag 1535 before we turn down as shown below: All the indicators are showing divergences on the daily chart. MACD and TSI...
I'm not playing this idea on my private account, because I'm not shorting gold in the middle of the intermediate rally, but some of you might want to bet on a 10-20$ drop in gold as it moves down into its daily cycle low. I see some kind of head and shoulder pattern evolving on the hourly gold chart. I would definetely not wait for the pattern to break and go...
It looks to me we had started the bottoming process in UGAZ . Price broke below 13$ with no follow through and on August 5 we broke below 11.69$ and started to recover on the next day . The weekly chart of NatGAS last week printed a hammer which often signs the end of the downtrend. This week we have the follow and the weekly swing. Two weeks ago UGAZ had...
GOLD Though 3 days ago the daily close was the highest close since 2013, we stopped the rally. On the 8 hrs chart above it still seems we are just testing back the triangle but as we are on day 18 time is not working for us. Today is day 18. I'm expecting a top on the 25-26th day. That would be on or one day ahead of FOMC. The drop back below the triangle's...
While Gold printed a big rally in May and June, Silver was just lagging. The XAUXAG ratio near to all time highs. I think it's time for Silver to catch up and make a huge rally in the second daily cycle of this precious metal intermediate cycle. Silver's ICL occured on the 20th of May while Gold's ICL was on the 2nd of May, so it printed the ICL 3 weeks later...
I got a lot of messages these days... "Sir I missed the move in silver what shall I do?" " I'm short in silver I followed someone else, please help" And my favorite: " Sir can we buy silver now?" ... etc We broke violently the multi year down trendline in the last 2 days. Actually the above chart is a 2-day-chart because I wanted you to see how big was the...
The triangle plays out as expected. This time I didn't play the short side, because it's getting too dangerous for any short. You have to be very nimble and fast to jump out at the right time from a short position in a spiky bull market like this one. I'm also afraid this might be a tricky breakout without the tag of the lower trendline, so I will play this on...
This idea is simple. It seems that the 2016 high will be the line in the sand. As I posted a few hours ago in this idea I entered a long position at 1389-1391: Target : 1440$.
We stopped out the last idea where we had to stop it : at 1413. Yesterday's close printed a pinbar again. At today's open gold was immediately slammed. I noticed that at the daily cycle tops banks often force price downwards and not letting it to recover above the previous day's close. This is exactly what's happening today. My entry was posted in the...
When you make enough loss in an 1x ETF time to switch to the 3 x leverage little sister at the bottom. Time to take the advantage of the collapsing dollar in something what is printing the bottom in these moments. Natural Gas -after shorted to death- is printing a 4,9% rally today. UGAZ had a capitulation volume last Thursday. This is the place where I want to...
I guess a few of you missed the last weeks' big opportunity in gold. But as you know there is always another trade. In this idea I will show you how this trade can overperform our next gold long trade. While we are shorting gold and waiting to print a DCL there's always worth looking around the metal sector which will switch from the late runner to a blade...
I'm waiting for the backtest of the breakout at the 1350-60 zone in this idea. Gold dropped 30$ after tonight's 1412 top. I'm looking forward to see a daily pinbar for the close at around 1380-82$. We are very very due for a daily cycle top. If we have a pinbar I will post a daily chart, but this is a low risk entry with a stop above the 1412$ high.
After today’s 1% drop it’s not a question anymore : we have started the correction. The only question how far is gold dropping. These kind of drops into the DCL are usually lasting for 4-7 days. So I don’t expect a bottom today. The bottom could be printed at the end of this week or beginning of next week. Fibonacci levels: I like to use the Fib retracement...
When I posted my last gold idea all the fancy newsletter writers – for 50-100$- were talking about how price will break down 1268. Everybody was finding bearish patterns on the chart: double top, triple top, head and shoulders, even someone was posting a descending triangle etc, etc. No one was watching the time boxes… We had weeks to break down that 1268...
The wedge seems to be ready to break to the upside. During the last 1-1,5 months price tagged 4 times the lower trendline of the wedge. The 1.11 level was not broken down though. We are in the apex of this 1-year-wedge and gold might be signaling a trend change in the currencies. One could start an initial long position here and add to the position at the break...