chinawildman

chinawildman

Coiling and looks to be painting a 5 wave C here. About to tap 200 MONTH MA and a lifetime .618 retrace to end wave II to start a potentially massive wave III. Will potentially trade all the way down to 140s but am going to start nibbling here for a lifetime HODL.

chinawildman Updated 

Technical analysis works because charts are graphological depictions of fear vs. greed over time. Technology has advanced greatly in the past 100 years but the human mind and emotions have not. (Why elliott waves are still relevant regardless of time and the fundamentals of the asset) Thus fractals are a good easy way to predict future behavior based on patterns...

chinawildman Updated 

I've noted previously how much this B wave mirrors the wave (iv) of A fractal from 1/24 - 2/2... so if we're onto wave C, then it makes sense to use the subsequent wave (v) of A as a model for how C will play out. If we lay it out all the inflection points match up well given the similarities in consolidation zones for wave B. The length of each move also makes...

chinawildman Updated 

2D chart of SPX vs. 1D chart of NDX during 2000 bubble top. It took NDX 24 days to paint an obvious zigzag on the daily... for SPX it took 52 days. If we use that ratio and apply it to the moving averages you can see that NDX found support (and continued to) at the 200 moving average and SPX found support at the 185 moving average. Conversely I've shown the 110...

chinawildman

Been a nice ride but this expanded flat correction looks about to be done. A measured move of the previous leg up ends this one around 225, which happens to be massive resistance at the top end of a previous multiyear consolidation zone. We're already seeing an ending diagonal form on the hourly which is expected as a wave C in an expanded flat. In my previous...

chinawildman Updated 

Overlay is QQQ from correction of late 2018. Looking for massive pumps in the upcoming days to get this thing to fill gaps overhead. Situation very similar to November 2018 FOMC. At that time Fed held rates steady (as had been the expectation) and Powell tried to calm the market down... it last for about a day before making new lows 2 weeks later. I'm expecting...

chinawildman

Green weekly candle coming soon but will likely eventually make a lower low in the next 2 months at strong support with 50% retrace of prior consolidation + Decade long support Gann Angle + 100 monthly moving average (I mistakenly wrote 200 on the chart). Popular moving averages that trend parallel to Gann angles typically give those lines some...

chinawildman

Overlay is dot com bubble... timing cycle indicates this thing is ripe for a squeeze to the upside to chase the 200 week moving average (blue) when it hits an obvious area of support. June 50.22 calls tomorrow morning and adding on all dips. Should be a sharp zig zag back to 70+.

chinawildman Updated 

That Gann angle (red line) has been resistance for a decade...It's the same line I used to call the pandemic drop 2 years ago. Expecting wave A to terminate there when it gets tested around 3950 in early April. According to monthly RSI, we're not even a minor correction yet and no where close to capitulation. Dip buyers abound and are live and well. STFR.

chinawildman Updated 

... that is NOT the question. It's not important if we've "started wave B" and whether this next leg down makes a new low or not, that part is academic. What's important is that the near term trend is downwards because bulls need to consolidate at levels burned through in the last V bottom rally because the days of easy money and QE are OVER. You can see how this...

chinawildman Updated 

Crazy buying the past few days and yet the steepness of the comeback only makes me realize just how bearish this market is. Fun fact... the FASTER bull rallies are, the more bearish the market is. Because it's all juice from short sellers covering which means short interest is high. Take a look at all the rallies we've had thusfar in this downtrend... they just...

chinawildman Updated 

Like I've been saying I still don't really trust this rally and most of NQ's waveforms have looked more like diagonals and zig zags. The current rally is taking shape so far as a 5-3-5 (it's much more apparent in the SPX and crypto) so I don't think it's a given that wave B of the correction has begun. That said, you have to respect the volume and momentum here....

chinawildman Updated 

Last time we tore through the 200 day moving average then got rejected by it was the final wave of the 2018 correction. Just happened again so... not good.

chinawildman Updated 

Wave 3 looking long in the tooth and will likely complete by next week. Looking for a .382 retrace wave 4 followed by 5 to complete wave C of the corrective expanded flat.

chinawildman Updated 

Tech getting waxed but that doesn't mean we can't scalp some calls. Tomorrow feels like it's gonna paint a huge daily bar... just dunno which way yet. If it opens green, my guess is it gets knocked lower into close... probably busting that channel and all the way to the .786-.886 retrace from the double top and .382 retrace of the entire rally from pandemic...

chinawildman

Everybody and their mom knows inflation's on the way... DXY looks like it's ready to turn and as you can see here we've either got a leading diagonal (most likely) or a bunch of nested 1-2 1-2 waves all ready to start the ultimate impulse move down. We'll most likely get an ABC down, but it needs to hold that 2/1 Gann angle. We won't know for at 4 years anyway.

chinawildman Updated 

The pink chart pattern is '66 (beginning of an expanding triangle corrective wave) to '87 (black monday) overlaid on the log scale. NOT ADJUSTED FOR TIME OR PRICE. Check out the eerie similarities... The last time the SPX bounced from below the 200 month MA was the bottom in '09... the time before that? '74... almost matches to the exact month. Speaking of...

chinawildman

I love using previous fractals to use as a template for guessing Elliott Wave movements and swings... Check out this one that I found.. does it look familiar? If I line it up from the ATH to the 50% retrace for ETH look at how all the peaks line up. If things go accordingly, we're looking for some kind of three drives pattern here to complete this leg down with...